Compendium › Danny Dip › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 26 trades in period

-12.83%
Last 6 Months Return
$3,726.45
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$4,274.81
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:02:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

18
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.0 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,274.81
Current Value
$3,726.45
Period P&L
$-548.33
Max Drawdown
-55.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
9 / 17
Best Trade
+5.63%
Worst Trade
-4.98%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$190,444.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-548.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$-548.33
Gross Return
-12.83%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.83%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $4,274.81 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET $15.88 269 $4,270.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $15.38 269 $4,137.22 $4,141.63 $-133.15
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $15.16 273 $4,140.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET $14.66 273 $4,002.18 $4,003.76 $-137.87
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:05am ET $15.98 250 $3,995.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:25am ET $16.78 250 $4,194.97 $4,203.74 +$199.98
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET $17.16 244 $4,187.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:55am ET $16.62 244 $4,055.04 $4,071.74 $-132.00
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET $16.28 250 $4,070.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.47 250 $3,867.50 $3,869.24 $-202.50
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
6 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $14.70 263 $3,866.07 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:25am ET $14.21 263 $3,737.23 $3,740.40 $-128.84
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.06 266 $3,738.63 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $13.48 266 $3,585.68 $3,587.45 $-152.95
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $12.80 280 $3,582.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $13.52 280 $3,784.20 $3,789.05 +$201.60
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:55am ET $17.74 213 $3,778.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:45am ET $17.18 213 $3,660.40 $3,670.83 $-118.22
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $16.55 221 $3,657.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $15.92 221 $3,518.52 $3,531.80 $-139.03
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET $14.51 243 $3,525.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 11:25am ET $15.28 243 $3,713.04 $3,718.93 +$187.13
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $16.13 230 $3,709.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:25am ET $15.56 230 $3,577.65 $3,587.30 $-131.63
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $14.70 243 $3,573.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:40am ET $15.45 243 $3,754.37 $3,768.36 +$181.06
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:45am ET $19.08 197 $3,757.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $18.50 197 $3,644.50 $3,655.08 $-113.28
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $17.76 205 $3,640.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:30am ET $17.20 205 $3,527.02 $3,541.14 $-113.94
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2h held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET $17.42 203 $3,537.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 1:35pm ET $16.83 203 $3,415.48 $3,419.34 $-121.80
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET $17.35 197 $3,417.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:25pm ET $16.82 197 $3,312.56 $3,313.96 $-105.38
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:25am ET $17.39 190 $3,304.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET $16.73 190 $3,178.70 $3,188.54 $-125.42
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET $16.00 199 $3,184.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:35am ET $16.88 199 $3,359.12 $3,362.67 +$174.13
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:40am ET $16.17 207 $3,348.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $17.04 207 $3,527.28 $3,541.73 +$179.06
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 11:05am ET $15.94 222 $3,538.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $15.36 222 $3,409.92 $3,412.97 $-128.76
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET $14.42 236 $3,403.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET $15.19 236 $3,585.81 $3,595.68 +$182.71
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $16.32 220 $3,590.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:30am ET $15.83 220 $3,482.60 $3,487.88 $-107.80
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $15.45 225 $3,476.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:55am ET $16.23 225 $3,651.75 $3,663.38 +$175.50
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:25am ET $16.27 225 $3,660.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:10pm ET $15.76 225 $3,545.57 $3,548.20 $-115.18
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $15.20 233 $3,541.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET $15.97 233 $3,719.85 $3,726.45 +$178.25
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,726.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,273.55
Total Return: -62.74%
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