SMCI Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 46 trades in period
+41.43%
Last 6 Months Return
$5,243.14
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$3,707.29
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
4.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.8
30-Day Momentum
20
+4.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.6
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$3,707.29
Current Value
$5,243.14
Period P&L
$1,535.85
Max Drawdown
-80.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
21 /
25
Best Trade
+13.79%
Worst Trade
-4.30%
Avg Trade Return
+0.87%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$450,716.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,535.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,535.85
Gross Return
+41.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+41.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,707.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.30 | 174 | $3,706.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 2:35pm ET | $22.40 | 174 | $3,896.73 | $3,897.82 |
+$190.53 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.41 | 166 | $3,886.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $22.65 | 166 | $3,759.90 | $3,771.66 |
$-126.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $21.20 | 177 | $3,753.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:20pm ET | $22.36 | 177 | $3,957.72 | $3,976.10 |
+$204.44 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $21.95 | 181 | $3,972.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $23.09 | 181 | $4,179.24 | $4,182.39 |
+$206.29 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $22.57 | 185 | $4,175.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $21.83 | 185 | $4,037.63 | $4,044.57 |
$-137.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $22.97 | 176 | $4,042.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.22 | 176 | $4,262.72 | $4,264.57 |
+$220.00 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 160 | $4,241.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.98 | 160 | $4,476.80 | $4,499.77 |
+$235.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $28.42 | 158 | $4,490.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $27.54 | 158 | $4,351.32 | $4,360.71 |
$-139.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.58 | 164 | $4,359.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $25.66 | 164 | $4,208.24 | $4,209.83 |
$-150.88 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.56 | 152 | $4,189.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 152 | $4,766.72 | $4,787.45 |
+$577.62 (+13.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $33.57 | 142 | $4,766.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $35.33 | 142 | $5,017.57 | $5,038.08 |
+$250.63 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $35.17 | 143 | $5,030.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET | $33.97 | 143 | $4,858.42 | $4,866.48 |
$-171.60 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.55 | 154 | $4,858.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $30.43 | 154 | $4,686.22 | $4,694.00 |
$-172.48 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.90 | 156 | $4,664.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.45 | 156 | $4,906.98 | $4,936.58 |
+$242.58 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $32.51 | 151 | $4,909.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $34.26 | 151 | $5,173.26 | $5,200.83 |
+$264.25 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $37.27 | 139 | $5,180.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $39.53 | 139 | $5,493.98 | $5,514.28 |
+$313.45 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $46.52 | 118 | $5,489.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.65 | 118 | $5,976.70 | $6,001.62 |
+$487.34 (+8.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $48.42 | 123 | $5,955.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $46.69 | 123 | $5,742.87 | $5,788.85 |
$-212.77 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $45.72 | 126 | $5,760.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $44.28 | 126 | $5,579.28 | $5,607.41 |
$-181.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $43.13 | 130 | $5,606.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $41.55 | 130 | $5,401.50 | $5,402.01 |
$-205.40 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $34.30 | 157 | $5,385.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 11:20am ET | $33.25 | 157 | $5,220.25 | $5,237.16 |
$-164.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.98 | 169 | $5,235.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.83 | 169 | $5,041.27 | $5,042.81 |
$-194.35 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $30.00 | 168 | $5,040.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $29.08 | 168 | $4,886.28 | $4,889.09 |
$-153.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $34.29 | 142 | $4,869.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $36.03 | 142 | $5,115.55 | $5,135.46 |
+$246.37 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $32.62 | 157 | $5,121.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:50pm ET | $31.63 | 157 | $4,965.91 | $4,980.03 |
$-155.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.04 | 160 | $4,966.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $29.95 | 160 | $4,792.00 | $4,805.63 |
$-174.40 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.20 | 170 | $4,794.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.35 | 170 | $4,649.26 | $4,660.89 |
$-144.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $26.21 | 177 | $4,639.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 2:05pm ET | $27.57 | 177 | $4,879.01 | $4,900.73 |
+$239.84 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.52 | 178 | $4,898.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $26.65 | 178 | $4,742.81 | $4,744.98 |
$-155.75 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.18 | 196 | $4,739.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $25.42 | 196 | $4,981.34 | $4,987.04 |
+$242.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 2:10pm ET | $30.76 | 162 | $4,983.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $32.42 | 162 | $5,252.02 | $5,255.94 |
+$268.90 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.63 | 177 | $5,244.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $28.73 | 177 | $5,085.21 | $5,096.64 |
$-159.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $27.75 | 183 | $5,078.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $26.91 | 183 | $4,924.53 | $4,942.92 |
$-153.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $28.22 | 175 | $4,938.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $29.84 | 175 | $5,222.00 | $5,226.42 |
+$283.50 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $30.59 | 170 | $5,200.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.57 | 170 | $5,026.90 | $5,053.02 |
$-173.40 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $35.83 | 141 | $5,051.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $37.65 | 141 | $5,307.95 | $5,309.64 |
+$256.62 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 11:40am ET | $38.94 | 136 | $5,296.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.27 | 136 | $5,068.72 | $5,081.84 |
$-227.80 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $36.12 | 140 | $5,056.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.11 | 140 | $5,335.40 | $5,360.44 |
+$278.60 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.10 | 148 | $5,342.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $34.84 | 148 | $5,156.32 | $5,173.96 |
$-186.48 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $38.06 | 135 | $5,138.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.56 | 135 | $4,935.60 | $4,971.46 |
$-202.50 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $35.92 | 138 | $4,956.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $37.72 | 138 | $5,205.36 | $5,219.86 |
+$248.40 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:05pm ET | $39.46 | 132 | $5,208.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.83 | 132 | $4,993.56 | $5,005.36 |
$-214.50 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.62 | 133 | $5,003.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $36.46 | 133 | $4,849.18 | $4,851.08 |
$-154.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $35.89 | 135 | $4,845.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.05 | 135 | $5,136.75 | $5,142.68 |
+$291.60 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $39.29 | 130 | $5,108.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $41.41 | 130 | $5,383.30 | $5,417.63 |
+$274.95 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $41.30 | 131 | $5,410.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $39.97 | 131 | $5,235.81 | $5,243.14 |
$-174.49 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,243.14
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,756.86
Total Return:
-47.57%