AVAXUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
-56.21%
Year to Date Return
$182.45
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$332.28
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
1.7/10
Raw Quality
1.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 1.7
30-Day Momentum
10
-21.1%
30d Return
28%
Win Rate
18
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
49,427
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
172 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$332.28
Current Value
$182.45
Period P&L
$-186.76
Max Drawdown
-97.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
14 /
35
Best Trade
+5.93%
Worst Trade
-4.81%
Avg Trade Return
-0.97%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$23,358.36
Estimated Fees
$58.40
Gross P&L
$-186.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$-245.16
Gross Return
-56.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-73.78%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 172 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $332.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:50pm ET | $14.29 | 23 | $332.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:55am ET | $13.78 | 23 | $320.40 | $318.77 |
$-13.49 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.83 | 23 | $318.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.41 | 23 | $309.09 | $307.52 |
$-11.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $13.30 | 23 | $307.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $12.66 | 23 | $292.72 | $291.22 |
$-16.30 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET | $12.63 | 23 | $291.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:40am ET | $12.19 | 23 | $281.08 | $279.65 |
$-11.58 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $11.92 | 23 | $279.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $12.56 | 23 | $294.66 | $293.23 |
+$13.58 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $11.16 | 26 | $293.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $10.82 | 26 | $284.29 | $282.85 |
$-10.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $10.08 | 28 | $282.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.76 | 28 | $273.87 | $272.48 |
$-10.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:15pm ET | $9.82 | 28 | $272.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:15am ET | $9.52 | 28 | $264.15 | $262.81 |
$-9.67 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:20am ET | $9.21 | 29 | $262.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $8.88 | 29 | $253.40 | $252.10 |
$-10.71 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $8.94 | 28 | $252.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $8.67 | 28 | $244.49 | $243.25 |
$-8.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $8.52 | 29 | $243.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 4:15pm ET | $8.26 | 29 | $235.83 | $234.63 |
$-8.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 4:20pm ET | $8.44 | 28 | $234.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.10 | 28 | $225.27 | $224.12 |
$-10.51 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $7.79 | 29 | $224.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $8.23 | 29 | $236.96 | $235.80 |
+$11.69 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:40pm ET | $8.20 | 29 | $235.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $8.61 | 29 | $247.65 | $246.45 |
+$10.64 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $8.34 | 30 | $246.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:10am ET | $8.76 | 30 | $258.86 | $257.59 |
+$11.15 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $9.12 | 28 | $257.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 5:15am ET | $8.82 | 28 | $249.03 | $247.77 |
$-9.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $8.51 | 29 | $247.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 12:25am ET | $8.21 | 29 | $239.04 | $239.04 |
$-9.95 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:45pm ET | $9.42 | 25 | $239.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $9.12 | 25 | $231.43 | $231.43 |
$-8.79 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET | $8.60 | 27 | $231.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $9.11 | 27 | $245.15 | $245.15 |
+$12.53 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 8, 2026 6:00pm ET | $8.72 | 28 | $245.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:40am ET | $9.18 | 28 | $258.08 | $258.08 |
+$11.67 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.7h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $9.65 | 27 | $258.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 8:45am ET | $10.15 | 27 | $271.45 | $271.45 |
+$12.05 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $9.89 | 27 | $271.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 14, 2026 2:35am ET | $9.59 | 27 | $263.22 | $263.22 |
$-9.57 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 8:00am ET | $9.91 | 27 | $263.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $9.60 | 27 | $254.99 | $254.99 |
$-9.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2026 7:55pm ET | $9.22 | 28 | $254.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 22, 2026 5:15pm ET | $8.93 | 28 | $246.97 | $246.97 |
$-9.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $9.37 | 26 | $246.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $9.06 | 26 | $238.80 | $238.80 |
$-9.39 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:35pm ET | $8.89 | 27 | $238.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $8.62 | 27 | $231.55 | $231.55 |
$-8.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.98 | 26 | $231.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:55pm ET | $8.70 | 26 | $224.33 | $224.33 |
$-8.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET | $9.04 | 25 | $224.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 6:20pm ET | $9.50 | 25 | $235.75 | $235.75 |
+$10.26 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $9.30 | 25 | $235.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $9.81 | 25 | $248.68 | $248.68 |
+$11.72 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET | $9.99 | 25 | $248.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $9.69 | 25 | $241.21 | $241.21 |
$-8.69 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.46 | 25 | $241.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 17, 2026 7:45pm ET | $9.07 | 25 | $231.27 | $231.27 |
$-11.13 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2026 4:40am ET | $8.83 | 26 | $231.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2026 2:35pm ET | $9.29 | 26 | $243.32 | $243.32 |
+$10.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 12:15am ET | $8.77 | 28 | $243.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $8.42 | 28 | $233.61 | $233.61 |
$-10.90 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.41 | 28 | $233.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 6:55pm ET | $8.11 | 28 | $225.28 | $225.28 |
$-9.48 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 7:00pm ET | $8.12 | 28 | $225.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:25pm ET | $7.80 | 28 | $216.40 | $216.40 |
$-9.98 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET | $7.83 | 28 | $216.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET | $7.54 | 28 | $208.39 | $208.39 |
$-9.08 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET | $7.65 | 27 | $208.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 12:05am ET | $8.05 | 27 | $219.29 | $219.29 |
+$9.83 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:00pm ET | $7.42 | 30 | $219.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET | $7.12 | 30 | $210.54 | $210.54 |
$-9.82 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:25am ET | $7.07 | 30 | $210.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $6.84 | 30 | $203.60 | $203.60 |
$-7.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.7h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $6.85 | 30 | $203.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $6.60 | 30 | $196.14 | $196.14 |
$-8.46 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $6.66 | 29 | $196.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 5:50pm ET | $7.00 | 29 | $206.21 | $206.21 |
+$9.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $6.78 | 30 | $206.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:25pm ET | $6.57 | 30 | $199.88 | $199.88 |
$-7.35 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:55pm ET | $6.52 | 31 | $199.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 12:30am ET | $6.26 | 31 | $191.97 | $191.97 |
$-8.89 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 12:35am ET | $6.27 | 31 | $191.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $6.63 | 31 | $203.05 | $203.05 |
+$10.09 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 6:35am ET | $6.60 | 31 | $203.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 5:10pm ET | $6.37 | 31 | $196.07 | $196.07 |
$-7.98 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $6.75 | 29 | $196.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $6.53 | 29 | $189.71 | $189.71 |
$-7.33 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $6.42 | 30 | $189.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 11:20pm ET | $6.15 | 30 | $181.73 | $181.73 |
$-8.91 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 19, 2026 12:30am ET | $6.09 | 30 | $181.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $5.82 | 30 | $173.73 | $173.73 |
$-8.89 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 19, 2026 2:45pm ET | $5.80 | 30 | $173.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 20, 2026 3:25am ET | $6.09 | 30 | $182.45 | $182.45 |
+$7.83 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$182.45
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,817.55
Total Return:
-98.18%