CRWD Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 34 trades in period
-28.05%
Year to Date Return
$7,909.08
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$10,992.90
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 5.1
30-Day Momentum
3
+0.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 3.9
Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,761
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,992.90
Current Value
$7,909.08
Period P&L
$-3,083.81
Max Drawdown
-28.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.20
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
11 /
23
Best Trade
+5.99%
Worst Trade
-10.24%
Avg Trade Return
-0.89%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$617,885.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,083.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,083.81
Gross Return
-28.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-28.05%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $10,992.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $454.60 | 24 | $10,910.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:45am ET | $480.20 | 24 | $11,524.80 | $11,607.30 |
+$614.40 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $465.67 | 24 | $11,176.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:15pm ET | $450.95 | 24 | $10,822.80 | $11,254.02 |
$-353.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $442.32 | 25 | $11,058.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:00am ET | $464.95 | 25 | $11,623.63 | $11,819.64 |
+$565.63 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $447.43 | 26 | $11,633.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $433.86 | 26 | $11,280.36 | $11,466.95 |
$-352.69 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $424.29 | 27 | $11,455.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $410.00 | 27 | $11,070.00 | $11,081.12 |
$-385.83 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $399.01 | 27 | $10,773.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $386.17 | 27 | $10,426.59 | $10,734.47 |
$-346.65 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $418.00 | 25 | $10,450.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $404.98 | 25 | $10,124.62 | $10,409.09 |
$-325.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $413.28 | 25 | $10,332.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $397.75 | 25 | $9,943.75 | $10,020.84 |
$-388.25 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.35 | 27 | $9,945.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $387.15 | 27 | $10,453.08 | $10,528.47 |
+$507.63 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $436.11 | 24 | $10,466.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $416.44 | 24 | $9,994.56 | $10,056.27 |
$-472.20 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $394.80 | 25 | $9,870.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.43 | 25 | $9,260.75 | $9,447.02 |
$-609.25 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $433.88 | 21 | $9,111.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $415.58 | 21 | $8,727.28 | $9,062.82 |
$-384.20 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $382.79 | 23 | $8,804.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $369.45 | 23 | $8,497.24 | $8,755.94 |
$-306.88 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $448.74 | 19 | $8,526.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $471.34 | 19 | $8,955.46 | $9,185.34 |
+$429.40 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $464.00 | 19 | $8,816.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.00 | 19 | $9,272.00 | $9,641.34 |
+$456.00 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $638.00 | 15 | $9,570.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $671.22 | 15 | $10,068.30 | $10,139.64 |
+$498.30 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $755.36 | 13 | $9,819.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $678.00 | 13 | $8,814.00 | $9,133.96 |
$-1,005.68 (-10.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $696.59 | 13 | $9,055.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $675.41 | 13 | $8,780.33 | $8,858.62 |
$-275.34 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $638.75 | 13 | $8,303.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $618.42 | 13 | $8,039.46 | $8,594.33 |
$-264.29 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.38 | 45 | $8,522.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $199.41 | 45 | $8,973.67 | $9,045.81 |
+$451.48 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $193.75 | 46 | $8,912.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $187.88 | 46 | $8,642.71 | $8,776.02 |
$-269.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $191.58 | 45 | $8,621.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $182.63 | 45 | $8,218.39 | $8,373.31 |
$-402.71 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $209.22 | 40 | $8,368.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.37 | 40 | $8,094.60 | $8,099.11 |
$-274.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $198.21 | 40 | $7,928.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $191.81 | 40 | $7,672.38 | $7,843.29 |
$-255.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $182.08 | 43 | $7,829.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.79 | 43 | $7,558.76 | $7,572.61 |
$-270.68 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $179.77 | 42 | $7,550.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $189.72 | 42 | $7,968.24 | $7,990.30 |
+$417.69 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.00 | 39 | $7,917.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.82 | 39 | $8,339.17 | $8,412.47 |
+$422.17 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $219.61 | 38 | $8,345.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $212.47 | 38 | $8,073.86 | $8,141.15 |
$-271.32 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $201.04 | 40 | $8,041.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $195.00 | 40 | $7,800.00 | $7,899.55 |
$-241.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $218.86 | 36 | $7,879.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $210.85 | 36 | $7,590.60 | $7,611.05 |
$-288.50 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:35am ET | $226.07 | 33 | $7,460.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $219.02 | 33 | $7,227.66 | $7,378.40 |
$-232.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $206.83 | 35 | $7,239.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $217.41 | 35 | $7,609.35 | $7,748.70 |
+$370.30 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $206.63 | 37 | $7,645.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $219.01 | 37 | $8,103.37 | $8,206.58 |
+$457.88 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $239.60 | 34 | $8,146.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.85 | 34 | $7,848.90 | $7,909.08 |
$-297.50 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,909.08
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,090.92
Total Return:
-20.91%