LTCUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 38 trades in period
-21.42%
Year to Date Return
$3,458.06
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$3,962.75
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
5.5/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 5.2
30-Day Momentum
16
+4.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.3
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
76,938
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$3,962.75
Current Value
$3,458.06
Period P&L
$-848.94
Max Drawdown
-84.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
15 /
23
Best Trade
+6.27%
Worst Trade
-7.80%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$247,799.48
Estimated Fees
$619.50
Gross P&L
$-848.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,468.44
Gross Return
-21.42%
Net Return (after fees)
-37.06%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,962.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:35pm ET | $73.40 | 54 | $3,962.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $69.91 | 54 | $3,774.40 | $3,755.06 |
$-207.77 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET | $69.46 | 54 | $3,755.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $67.35 | 54 | $3,640.99 | $3,622.50 |
$-132.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $66.58 | 54 | $3,622.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 5:25am ET | $70.20 | 54 | $3,819.46 | $3,800.85 |
+$178.35 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 25, 2026 12:20pm ET | $67.32 | 56 | $3,800.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $65.28 | 56 | $3,685.67 | $3,666.96 |
$-133.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $65.47 | 56 | $3,666.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:30am ET | $63.50 | 56 | $3,556.62 | $3,538.56 |
$-128.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $60.05 | 59 | $3,538.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $57.99 | 59 | $3,417.17 | $3,399.78 |
$-138.78 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:15pm ET | $58.36 | 58 | $3,399.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 10:35pm ET | $56.54 | 58 | $3,293.76 | $3,277.02 |
$-122.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 10:40pm ET | $56.76 | 58 | $3,277.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 7:25am ET | $59.67 | 58 | $3,444.74 | $3,427.94 |
+$150.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $57.75 | 59 | $3,427.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:35pm ET | $60.89 | 59 | $3,614.32 | $3,596.72 |
+$168.78 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:10am ET | $56.28 | 64 | $3,596.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $54.58 | 64 | $3,488.07 | $3,470.36 |
$-126.35 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $54.83 | 63 | $3,470.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $52.97 | 63 | $3,352.64 | $3,335.58 |
$-134.78 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $53.64 | 62 | $3,335.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $51.43 | 62 | $3,198.15 | $3,181.82 |
$-153.76 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $51.04 | 62 | $3,181.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $47.06 | 62 | $2,933.70 | $2,918.42 |
$-263.40 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $46.18 | 63 | $2,918.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $48.66 | 63 | $3,075.14 | $3,060.16 |
+$141.74 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $49.65 | 62 | $3,060.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $52.44 | 62 | $3,232.12 | $3,216.39 |
+$156.23 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $50.61 | 64 | $3,216.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:15am ET | $53.18 | 64 | $3,379.72 | $3,363.23 |
+$146.84 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $53.28 | 63 | $3,363.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 8:50am ET | $51.66 | 63 | $3,261.21 | $3,261.21 |
$-118.58 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $51.77 | 63 | $3,261.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 7:50am ET | $54.50 | 63 | $3,433.18 | $3,433.18 |
+$155.24 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:35pm ET | $56.62 | 61 | $3,433.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $54.62 | 61 | $3,311.91 | $3,311.91 |
$-138.13 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $52.96 | 63 | $3,311.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:45am ET | $55.61 | 63 | $3,477.63 | $3,477.63 |
+$148.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 8:35am ET | $55.93 | 62 | $3,477.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET | $54.22 | 62 | $3,371.31 | $3,371.31 |
$-123.45 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET | $58.06 | 58 | $3,371.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2026 2:50am ET | $56.14 | 58 | $3,259.82 | $3,259.82 |
$-128.06 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 17, 2026 7:50pm ET | $54.13 | 60 | $3,259.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 7:50pm ET | $52.45 | 60 | $3,158.65 | $3,158.65 |
$-117.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $47.64 | 66 | $3,158.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:25pm ET | $45.84 | 66 | $3,039.31 | $3,039.31 |
$-134.84 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET | $45.86 | 66 | $3,039.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET | $44.17 | 66 | $2,927.31 | $2,927.31 |
$-126.92 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET | $44.84 | 65 | $2,927.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:25am ET | $43.07 | 65 | $2,811.76 | $2,811.76 |
$-129.90 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:30am ET | $43.21 | 65 | $2,811.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 12:20am ET | $41.57 | 65 | $2,705.04 | $2,705.04 |
$-120.51 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 12:25am ET | $41.61 | 65 | $2,705.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 5:25pm ET | $43.71 | 65 | $2,841.56 | $2,841.56 |
+$122.65 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $41.89 | 68 | $2,841.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $40.63 | 68 | $2,756.09 | $2,756.09 |
$-99.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $39.53 | 70 | $2,756.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 1:00am ET | $41.55 | 70 | $2,896.93 | $2,896.93 |
+$126.70 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $39.77 | 73 | $2,896.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:10am ET | $41.83 | 73 | $3,046.98 | $3,046.98 |
+$135.19 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 5:20am ET | $49.88 | 61 | $3,046.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 5:05pm ET | $52.45 | 61 | $3,203.97 | $3,203.97 |
+$141.36 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $52.95 | 61 | $3,203.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 4:30am ET | $51.36 | 61 | $3,107.76 | $3,107.76 |
$-111.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 6, 2026 9:40pm ET | $54.38 | 57 | $3,107.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 7, 2026 8:45am ET | $57.65 | 57 | $3,294.64 | $3,294.64 |
+$170.87 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $57.28 | 58 | $3,294.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 7, 2026 11:45am ET | $55.29 | 58 | $3,180.18 | $3,180.18 |
$-130.65 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 7, 2026 11:50am ET | $55.45 | 57 | $3,180.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:55pm ET | $53.72 | 57 | $3,080.96 | $3,080.96 |
$-114.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $60.68 | 51 | $3,080.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:40pm ET | $64.09 | 51 | $3,254.10 | $3,254.10 |
+$157.30 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 5:35am ET | $66.37 | 49 | $3,254.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $70.53 | 49 | $3,458.06 | $3,458.06 |
+$187.18 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,458.06
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,541.94
Total Return:
-65.42%