RBLX Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 47 trades in period
-5.60%
Year to Date Return
$16,889.71
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$17,891.15
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
35
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.3/35
Total Return
15.7/25
Win Rate
3.1/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality
35.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 34.7
30-Day Momentum
51
+13.3%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 77.1
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,892
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$17,891.15
Current Value
$16,889.71
Period P&L
$-1,001.46
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
19 /
28
Best Trade
+9.45%
Worst Trade
-17.13%
Avg Trade Return
-0.01%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,420,868.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,001.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,001.46
Gross Return
-5.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.60%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $17,891.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:20am ET | $81.78 | 221 | $18,073.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $79.02 | 221 | $17,463.42 | $17,517.68 |
$-609.96 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.54 | 225 | $17,446.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.50 | 225 | $16,762.50 | $16,833.68 |
$-684.00 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $83.26 | 202 | $16,818.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $87.57 | 202 | $17,689.14 | $17,704.30 |
+$870.62 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.88 | 211 | $17,698.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $81.35 | 211 | $17,164.85 | $17,170.47 |
$-533.83 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:05am ET | $74.20 | 231 | $17,140.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $71.85 | 231 | $16,597.35 | $16,627.76 |
$-542.71 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $74.11 | 224 | $16,600.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $70.92 | 224 | $15,886.08 | $15,913.20 |
$-714.56 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.32 | 243 | $15,873.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $63.28 | 243 | $15,378.25 | $15,418.09 |
$-495.11 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $63.01 | 244 | $15,374.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $60.91 | 244 | $14,862.04 | $14,905.69 |
$-512.40 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $73.46 | 202 | $14,839.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $70.48 | 202 | $14,236.96 | $14,302.72 |
$-602.97 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $61.41 | 232 | $14,247.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $64.70 | 232 | $15,010.40 | $15,066.00 |
+$763.28 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $66.36 | 227 | $15,064.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $63.60 | 227 | $14,437.20 | $14,438.35 |
$-627.65 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $67.27 | 214 | $14,395.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 1:50pm ET | $65.24 | 214 | $13,961.36 | $14,003.93 |
$-434.42 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $61.80 | 226 | $13,966.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $59.85 | 226 | $13,526.10 | $13,563.23 |
$-440.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $58.33 | 232 | $13,532.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.32 | 232 | $13,066.26 | $13,096.93 |
$-466.30 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.44 | 236 | $13,085.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:55pm ET | $53.71 | 236 | $12,674.38 | $12,686.29 |
$-410.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $51.35 | 247 | $12,683.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $54.05 | 247 | $13,350.35 | $13,353.19 |
+$666.90 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.23 | 237 | $13,326.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $59.29 | 237 | $14,051.73 | $14,078.41 |
+$725.22 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $57.21 | 246 | $14,073.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $55.46 | 246 | $13,643.16 | $13,647.91 |
$-430.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.20 | 256 | $13,619.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.50 | 256 | $14,464.00 | $14,492.71 |
+$844.80 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $59.90 | 241 | $14,435.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $63.42 | 241 | $15,285.42 | $15,342.84 |
+$850.13 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.80 | 270 | $15,336.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 12:45pm ET | $55.08 | 270 | $14,870.25 | $14,877.09 |
$-465.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $56.46 | 263 | $14,850.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.53 | 263 | $14,342.70 | $14,369.68 |
$-507.41 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.52 | 337 | $14,329.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $45.42 | 337 | $15,305.56 | $15,346.00 |
+$976.32 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $46.48 | 330 | $15,338.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:35pm ET | $44.89 | 330 | $14,813.70 | $14,821.30 |
$-524.70 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $43.40 | 341 | $14,799.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $42.05 | 341 | $14,339.05 | $14,360.95 |
$-460.35 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $40.46 | 354 | $14,321.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $42.49 | 354 | $15,039.69 | $15,078.69 |
+$717.74 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $45.70 | 329 | $15,035.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $44.31 | 329 | $14,577.99 | $14,621.38 |
$-457.31 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.10 | 317 | $14,613.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $44.66 | 317 | $14,157.22 | $14,164.90 |
$-456.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $42.49 | 333 | $14,150.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $41.11 | 333 | $13,689.63 | $13,704.23 |
$-460.67 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $43.00 | 318 | $13,674.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $41.68 | 318 | $13,254.59 | $13,284.82 |
$-419.41 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $41.92 | 316 | $13,246.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.66 | 316 | $14,112.56 | $14,150.66 |
+$865.84 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $48.57 | 291 | $14,133.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $51.21 | 291 | $14,902.11 | $14,918.90 |
+$768.24 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $48.61 | 306 | $14,874.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $47.15 | 306 | $14,427.90 | $14,472.14 |
$-446.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.51 | 311 | $14,463.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.90 | 311 | $15,829.90 | $15,838.99 |
+$1,366.85 (+9.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.81 | 288 | $15,785.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $57.59 | 288 | $16,585.95 | $16,639.66 |
+$800.67 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $55.26 | 301 | $16,633.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.19 | 301 | $15,709.19 | $15,715.59 |
$-924.07 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.98 | 308 | $15,701.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.40 | 308 | $14,907.20 | $14,920.95 |
$-794.64 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $46.51 | 320 | $14,883.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:25am ET | $48.95 | 320 | $15,664.03 | $15,701.78 |
+$780.83 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $48.21 | 325 | $15,668.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.95 | 325 | $12,983.75 | $13,017.28 |
$-2,684.50 (-17.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $36.36 | 358 | $13,016.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.98 | 358 | $13,954.84 | $13,955.24 |
+$937.96 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $35.58 | 392 | $13,947.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $37.53 | 392 | $14,711.76 | $14,719.64 |
+$764.40 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $37.70 | 390 | $14,703.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $39.91 | 390 | $15,564.90 | $15,581.54 |
+$861.90 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $38.60 | 403 | $15,557.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $40.88 | 403 | $16,474.64 | $16,498.37 |
+$916.83 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $39.97 | 412 | $16,466.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.10 | 412 | $17,345.04 | $17,376.59 |
+$878.22 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $43.57 | 398 | $17,340.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $45.78 | 398 | $18,220.44 | $18,256.17 |
+$879.58 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $49.31 | 370 | $18,242.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $47.68 | 370 | $17,641.42 | $17,654.74 |
$-601.43 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $49.70 | 355 | $17,643.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $47.54 | 355 | $16,878.47 | $16,889.71 |
$-765.03 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,889.71
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,889.71
Total Return:
+68.90%