RIVN Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
-23.12%
Year to Date Return
$3,726.45
Current Value
34%
Win Rate
$4,847.09
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality
2.7/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 2.7
30-Day Momentum
18
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.0
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,488
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$4,847.09
Current Value
$3,726.45
Period P&L
$-1,120.61
Max Drawdown
-55.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
14 /
27
Best Trade
+5.63%
Worst Trade
-4.98%
Avg Trade Return
-0.56%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$326,133.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,120.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,120.61
Gross Return
-23.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-23.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $4,847.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $19.89 | 243 | $4,832.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $19.17 | 243 | $4,658.31 | $4,672.68 |
$-174.38 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $19.20 | 243 | $4,665.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $20.21 | 243 | $4,912.12 | $4,919.20 |
+$246.52 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:30pm ET | $20.14 | 244 | $4,912.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $19.48 | 244 | $4,751.90 | $4,758.16 |
$-161.04 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.88 | 266 | $4,754.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $17.32 | 266 | $4,605.79 | $4,609.20 |
$-148.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.95 | 289 | $4,608.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.76 | 289 | $4,842.20 | $4,843.29 |
+$234.09 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.31 | 316 | $4,836.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $14.84 | 316 | $4,689.44 | $4,696.35 |
$-146.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $14.30 | 328 | $4,690.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $13.87 | 328 | $4,549.36 | $4,555.31 |
$-141.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 314 | $4,546.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $14.70 | 314 | $4,617.37 | $4,625.96 |
+$70.65 (+1.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.37 | 266 | $4,620.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.84 | 266 | $4,480.77 | $4,486.31 |
$-139.65 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $16.39 | 273 | $4,473.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.78 | 273 | $4,307.94 | $4,321.14 |
$-165.17 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.10 | 286 | $4,320.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.64 | 286 | $4,187.04 | $4,188.15 |
$-132.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.16 | 276 | $4,184.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.93 | 276 | $4,395.30 | $4,399.29 |
+$211.14 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.19 | 271 | $4,386.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $15.68 | 271 | $4,247.93 | $4,261.05 |
$-138.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.36 | 260 | $4,253.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:00pm ET | $15.59 | 260 | $4,052.10 | $4,059.55 |
$-201.50 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.04 | 269 | $4,045.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.84 | 269 | $4,260.96 | $4,274.78 |
+$215.23 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.88 | 269 | $4,270.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.38 | 269 | $4,137.22 | $4,141.63 |
$-133.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.16 | 273 | $4,140.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.66 | 273 | $4,002.18 | $4,003.76 |
$-137.87 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.98 | 250 | $3,995.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:25am ET | $16.78 | 250 | $4,194.97 | $4,203.74 |
+$199.98 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $17.16 | 244 | $4,187.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.62 | 244 | $4,055.04 | $4,071.74 |
$-132.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.28 | 250 | $4,070.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.47 | 250 | $3,867.50 | $3,869.24 |
$-202.50 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.70 | 263 | $3,866.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $14.21 | 263 | $3,737.23 | $3,740.40 |
$-128.84 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.06 | 266 | $3,738.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.48 | 266 | $3,585.68 | $3,587.45 |
$-152.95 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.80 | 280 | $3,582.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $13.52 | 280 | $3,784.20 | $3,789.05 |
+$201.60 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.74 | 213 | $3,778.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $17.18 | 213 | $3,660.40 | $3,670.83 |
$-118.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.55 | 221 | $3,657.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.92 | 221 | $3,518.52 | $3,531.80 |
$-139.03 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.51 | 243 | $3,525.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $15.28 | 243 | $3,713.04 | $3,718.93 |
+$187.13 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.13 | 230 | $3,709.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $15.56 | 230 | $3,577.65 | $3,587.30 |
$-131.63 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $14.70 | 243 | $3,573.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $15.45 | 243 | $3,754.37 | $3,768.36 |
+$181.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $19.08 | 197 | $3,757.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.50 | 197 | $3,644.50 | $3,655.08 |
$-113.28 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.76 | 205 | $3,640.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $17.20 | 205 | $3,527.02 | $3,541.14 |
$-113.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.42 | 203 | $3,537.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:35pm ET | $16.83 | 203 | $3,415.48 | $3,419.34 |
$-121.80 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.35 | 197 | $3,417.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $16.82 | 197 | $3,312.56 | $3,313.96 |
$-105.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $17.39 | 190 | $3,304.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.73 | 190 | $3,178.70 | $3,188.54 |
$-125.42 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.00 | 199 | $3,184.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.88 | 199 | $3,359.12 | $3,362.67 |
+$174.13 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.17 | 207 | $3,348.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.04 | 207 | $3,527.28 | $3,541.73 |
+$179.06 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $15.94 | 222 | $3,538.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $15.36 | 222 | $3,409.92 | $3,412.97 |
$-128.76 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.42 | 236 | $3,403.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.19 | 236 | $3,585.81 | $3,595.68 |
+$182.71 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $16.32 | 220 | $3,590.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.83 | 220 | $3,482.60 | $3,487.88 |
$-107.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.45 | 225 | $3,476.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $16.23 | 225 | $3,651.75 | $3,663.38 |
+$175.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.27 | 225 | $3,660.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 3:10pm ET | $15.76 | 225 | $3,545.57 | $3,548.20 |
$-115.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.20 | 233 | $3,541.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $15.97 | 233 | $3,719.85 | $3,726.45 |
+$178.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,726.45
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,273.55
Total Return:
-62.74%