SHIBUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 44 trades in period
-12.63%
Year to Date Return
$2,955.17
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$3,014.68
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
22 oversold
20d Trend
-35.2%
5d Trend
-32.9%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality
4.7/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 4.5
30-Day Momentum
20
+5.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.3
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
49,458
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
172 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$3,014.68
Current Value
$2,955.17
Period P&L
$-380.69
Max Drawdown
-94.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
44
Winners / Losers
18 /
26
Best Trade
+7.28%
Worst Trade
-5.51%
Avg Trade Return
+0.30%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$248,096.19
Estimated Fees
$620.24
Gross P&L
$-380.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,000.93
Gross Return
-12.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-33.20%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 172 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 44 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,014.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:55pm ET | $0.00000802 | 375,896,289 | $3,014.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 1:20am ET | $0.00000850 | 375,896,289 | $3,195.12 | $3,179.59 |
+$164.91 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $0.00000908 | 350,175,544 | $3,179.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 11:20pm ET | $0.00000879 | 350,175,544 | $3,078.04 | $3,062.40 |
$-117.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000963 | 318,006,121 | $3,062.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $0.00000934 | 318,006,121 | $2,970.18 | $2,955.10 |
$-107.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $0.00000913 | 323,668,754 | $2,955.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:45pm ET | $0.00000961 | 323,668,754 | $3,110.46 | $3,095.29 |
+$140.20 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $0.00000920 | 336,444,875 | $3,095.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000892 | 336,444,875 | $3,001.09 | $2,985.85 |
$-109.45 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.00000898 | 332,499,703 | $2,985.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:05pm ET | $0.00000871 | 332,499,703 | $2,896.07 | $2,881.37 |
$-104.48 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000835 | 345,073,965 | $2,881.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $0.00000789 | 345,073,965 | $2,722.63 | $2,708.62 |
$-172.74 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000790 | 342,863,745 | $2,708.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 5:30pm ET | $0.00000765 | 342,863,745 | $2,622.91 | $2,609.58 |
$-99.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000772 | 338,028,344 | $2,609.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 4:15pm ET | $0.00000814 | 338,028,344 | $2,751.55 | $2,738.15 |
+$128.57 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.00000727 | 376,636,575 | $2,738.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 2:35am ET | $0.00000704 | 376,636,575 | $2,651.52 | $2,638.05 |
$-100.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $0.00000679 | 388,519,487 | $2,638.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $0.00000657 | 388,519,487 | $2,552.57 | $2,539.60 |
$-98.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000659 | 385,371,241 | $2,539.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $0.00000692 | 385,371,241 | $2,666.77 | $2,653.75 |
+$114.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000679 | 390,832,558 | $2,653.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $0.00000657 | 390,832,558 | $2,567.77 | $2,554.72 |
$-99.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:20pm ET | $0.00000654 | 390,629,373 | $2,554.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $0.00000690 | 390,629,373 | $2,695.34 | $2,682.22 |
+$127.50 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 5:15pm ET | $0.00000674 | 397,955,123 | $2,682.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:35am ET | $0.00000651 | 397,955,123 | $2,590.69 | $2,577.51 |
$-104.71 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:20am ET | $0.00000620 | 415,726,708 | $2,577.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $0.00000598 | 415,726,708 | $2,486.05 | $2,473.39 |
$-104.12 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000592 | 417,801,830 | $2,473.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $0.00000573 | 417,801,830 | $2,394.00 | $2,381.84 |
$-91.55 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $0.00000566 | 420,819,083 | $2,381.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000549 | 420,819,083 | $2,310.30 | $2,298.57 |
$-83.27 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000522 | 440,338,397 | $2,298.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000560 | 440,338,397 | $2,465.90 | $2,453.98 |
+$155.42 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:40pm ET | $0.00000559 | 438,995,325 | $2,453.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:10am ET | $0.00000589 | 438,995,325 | $2,585.68 | $2,573.08 |
+$119.10 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $0.00000581 | 442,871,480 | $2,573.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $0.00000613 | 442,871,480 | $2,714.80 | $2,701.58 |
+$128.50 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET | $0.00000608 | 444,339,220 | $2,701.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000639 | 444,339,220 | $2,839.33 | $2,825.48 |
+$123.89 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000631 | 447,778,130 | $2,825.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:00pm ET | $0.00000612 | 447,778,130 | $2,740.40 | $2,740.40 |
$-98.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $0.00000597 | 459,028,476 | $2,740.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000629 | 459,028,476 | $2,887.29 | $2,887.29 |
+$132.82 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:20pm ET | $0.00000630 | 458,300,000 | $2,887.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 4:05am ET | $0.00000611 | 458,300,000 | $2,800.21 | $2,800.21 |
$-101.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $0.00000560 | 500,037,500 | $2,800.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 9:05pm ET | $0.00000593 | 500,037,500 | $2,965.22 | $2,965.22 |
+$150.60 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000545 | 544,077,064 | $2,965.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2026 9:50pm ET | $0.00000528 | 544,077,064 | $2,872.73 | $2,872.73 |
$-107.09 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $0.00000570 | 503,987,175 | $2,872.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 11:20am ET | $0.00000599 | 503,987,175 | $3,018.88 | $3,018.88 |
+$131.43 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $0.00000587 | 514,290,150 | $3,018.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $0.00000567 | 514,290,150 | $2,916.03 | $2,916.03 |
$-117.70 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:35pm ET | $0.00000569 | 512,482,452 | $2,916.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 7:35am ET | $0.00000599 | 512,482,452 | $3,069.77 | $3,069.77 |
+$138.78 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000604 | 508,240,047 | $3,069.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 14, 2026 6:30am ET | $0.00000584 | 508,240,047 | $2,968.12 | $2,968.12 |
$-116.74 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 4:55am ET | $0.00000621 | 477,958,434 | $2,968.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 8:40am ET | $0.00000602 | 477,958,434 | $2,877.31 | $2,877.31 |
$-105.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 8:30am ET | $0.00000584 | 492,690,030 | $2,877.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $0.00000566 | 492,690,030 | $2,788.63 | $2,788.63 |
$-102.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET | $0.00000582 | 479,145,287 | $2,788.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000612 | 479,145,287 | $2,932.37 | $2,932.37 |
+$129.44 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:15pm ET | $0.00000585 | 501,259,829 | $2,932.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 7:00pm ET | $0.00000615 | 501,259,829 | $3,082.75 | $3,082.75 |
+$135.34 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 8:15am ET | $0.00000629 | 490,103,339 | $3,082.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000609 | 490,103,339 | $2,984.73 | $2,984.73 |
$-113.19 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET | $0.00000642 | 464,911,215 | $2,984.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $0.00000621 | 464,911,215 | $2,887.10 | $2,887.10 |
$-112.31 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000607 | 475,634,267 | $2,887.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2026 6:10am ET | $0.00000588 | 475,634,267 | $2,796.73 | $2,796.73 |
$-104.58 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 12:25am ET | $0.00000525 | 532,710,476 | $2,796.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 10:05pm ET | $0.00000553 | 532,710,476 | $2,945.89 | $2,945.89 |
+$134.80 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000509 | 578,760,314 | $2,945.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 7:25am ET | $0.00000535 | 578,760,314 | $3,096.37 | $3,096.37 |
+$135.37 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.9h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:25pm ET | $0.00000502 | 616,806,773 | $3,096.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:45pm ET | $0.00000486 | 616,806,773 | $2,997.68 | $2,997.68 |
$-113.92 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:15am ET | $0.00000474 | 632,421,941 | $2,997.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.00000459 | 632,421,941 | $2,902.82 | $2,902.82 |
$-109.61 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $0.00000452 | 642,216,814 | $2,902.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 12:30am ET | $0.00000438 | 642,216,814 | $2,812.91 | $2,812.91 |
$-104.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 12:35am ET | $0.00000435 | 646,645,977 | $2,812.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $0.00000457 | 646,645,977 | $2,955.17 | $2,955.17 |
+$127.84 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$2,955.17
Net Profit/Loss:
$-7,044.83
Total Return:
-70.45%