SOFI Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 44 trades in period
-43.55%
Year to Date Return
$6,916.77
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$12,253.45
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
4.6/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.5
30-Day Momentum
2
-5.2%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,004
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,253.45
Current Value
$6,916.77
Period P&L
$-5,336.69
Max Drawdown
-30.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
44
Winners / Losers
11 /
33
Best Trade
+7.42%
Worst Trade
-9.95%
Avg Trade Return
-1.21%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$732,012.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-5,336.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-5,336.69
Gross Return
-43.55%
Net Return (after fees)
-43.55%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 44 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $12,253.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.56 | 429 | $12,250.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $27.63 | 429 | $11,851.13 | $11,854.49 |
$-398.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $26.56 | 446 | $11,845.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $25.70 | 446 | $11,459.97 | $11,468.70 |
$-385.79 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $25.10 | 456 | $11,445.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $24.33 | 456 | $11,092.20 | $11,115.30 |
$-353.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $23.45 | 474 | $11,115.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $22.74 | 474 | $10,778.76 | $10,778.80 |
$-336.49 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $22.02 | 489 | $10,767.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $21.34 | 489 | $10,437.70 | $10,448.78 |
$-330.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:35pm ET | $20.12 | 519 | $10,442.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $19.34 | 519 | $10,040.05 | $10,046.55 |
$-402.23 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $21.07 | 476 | $10,026.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $20.42 | 476 | $9,717.54 | $9,737.15 |
$-309.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.26 | 505 | $9,726.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $18.64 | 505 | $9,411.08 | $9,421.93 |
$-315.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.12 | 519 | $9,405.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $17.58 | 519 | $9,121.43 | $9,138.04 |
$-283.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $17.85 | 511 | $9,121.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:45pm ET | $18.75 | 511 | $9,583.80 | $9,600.49 |
+$462.45 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $18.78 | 511 | $9,596.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.93 | 511 | $9,162.23 | $9,166.14 |
$-434.35 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $18.34 | 499 | $9,149.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $17.77 | 499 | $8,867.23 | $8,883.66 |
$-282.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $17.08 | 519 | $8,867.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $17.94 | 519 | $9,310.86 | $9,327.41 |
+$443.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $16.86 | 553 | $9,323.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.25 | 553 | $8,986.25 | $8,990.14 |
$-337.27 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.52 | 579 | $8,986.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.05 | 579 | $8,714.53 | $8,718.65 |
$-271.49 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.61 | 558 | $8,710.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.99 | 558 | $8,367.21 | $8,375.48 |
$-343.17 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.92 | 494 | $8,360.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $16.40 | 494 | $8,099.13 | $8,113.66 |
$-261.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $18.82 | 431 | $8,110.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $19.80 | 431 | $8,533.80 | $8,536.51 |
+$422.85 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $19.00 | 449 | $8,531.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $18.35 | 449 | $8,239.15 | $8,244.03 |
$-292.48 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.30 | 450 | $8,235.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.48 | 450 | $7,416.00 | $7,425.03 |
$-819.00 (-9.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:50am ET | $16.17 | 459 | $7,422.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $15.68 | 459 | $7,194.83 | $7,197.83 |
$-227.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $15.64 | 460 | $7,194.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.14 | 460 | $6,962.10 | $6,965.53 |
$-232.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 11:10am ET | $15.38 | 453 | $6,964.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.50 | 453 | $7,476.76 | $7,477.42 |
+$511.89 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.74 | 421 | $7,469.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $18.64 | 421 | $7,846.01 | $7,854.09 |
+$376.67 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.08 | 459 | $7,842.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.48 | 459 | $7,562.03 | $7,574.10 |
$-279.99 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $16.52 | 458 | $7,566.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.98 | 458 | $7,318.84 | $7,326.78 |
$-247.32 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $16.11 | 454 | $7,313.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.31 | 454 | $7,856.47 | $7,869.26 |
+$542.48 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $17.15 | 458 | $7,852.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $18.00 | 458 | $8,246.29 | $8,263.14 |
+$393.88 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $17.99 | 459 | $8,255.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.41 | 459 | $7,988.90 | $7,996.92 |
$-266.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.33 | 461 | $7,991.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.75 | 461 | $7,721.75 | $7,727.24 |
$-269.68 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:10pm ET | $17.83 | 433 | $7,718.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $17.27 | 433 | $7,477.91 | $7,486.92 |
$-240.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $18.43 | 406 | $7,484.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $17.87 | 406 | $7,255.22 | $7,257.53 |
$-229.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $18.15 | 399 | $7,239.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.30 | 399 | $6,904.30 | $6,921.97 |
$-335.56 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $18.96 | 365 | $6,920.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $18.38 | 365 | $6,708.74 | $6,710.34 |
$-211.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $18.14 | 370 | $6,709.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $17.59 | 370 | $6,508.30 | $6,508.69 |
$-201.65 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $16.77 | 387 | $6,491.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.19 | 387 | $6,267.46 | $6,284.23 |
$-224.46 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.08 | 416 | $6,272.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.84 | 416 | $6,587.36 | $6,599.52 |
+$315.29 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.67 | 373 | $6,592.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $18.57 | 373 | $6,927.32 | $6,934.06 |
+$334.54 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $17.88 | 387 | $6,917.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $18.81 | 387 | $7,279.51 | $7,295.94 |
+$361.88 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $18.74 | 389 | $7,287.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $18.17 | 389 | $7,068.32 | $7,076.35 |
$-219.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $17.33 | 408 | $7,068.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.59 | 408 | $7,586.27 | $7,594.02 |
+$517.67 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.02 | 421 | $7,586.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $17.47 | 421 | $7,354.87 | $7,362.47 |
$-231.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $17.16 | 429 | $7,361.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $16.64 | 429 | $7,136.42 | $7,137.25 |
$-225.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $17.15 | 416 | $7,132.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $16.61 | 416 | $6,911.84 | $6,916.77 |
$-220.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,916.77
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,083.23
Total Return:
-30.83%