TQQQ Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
+13.04%
Year to Date Return
$15,443.91
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$13,662.53
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
27.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 26.8
30-Day Momentum
27
+6.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 44.1
Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$13,662.53
Current Value
$15,443.91
Period P&L
$1,781.35
Max Drawdown
-40.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
18 /
25
Best Trade
+13.96%
Worst Trade
-8.53%
Avg Trade Return
+0.41%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,245,448.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,781.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,781.35
Gross Return
+13.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.04%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $13,662.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $52.93 | 258 | $13,656.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $55.62 | 258 | $14,348.82 | $14,355.29 |
+$692.73 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.87 | 266 | $14,328.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.05 | 266 | $13,844.79 | $13,871.33 |
$-483.96 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $51.14 | 271 | $13,858.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $53.72 | 271 | $14,556.77 | $14,569.15 |
+$697.83 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $55.19 | 263 | $14,514.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $53.50 | 263 | $14,070.08 | $14,124.26 |
$-444.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.58 | 263 | $14,091.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $51.97 | 263 | $13,668.11 | $13,700.83 |
$-423.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:40pm ET | $48.84 | 280 | $13,675.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.14 | 280 | $13,199.20 | $13,224.83 |
$-476.00 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.72 | 277 | $13,218.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $50.14 | 277 | $13,888.75 | $13,895.14 |
+$670.31 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $48.31 | 287 | $13,864.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.99 | 287 | $14,635.56 | $14,665.73 |
+$770.59 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $49.74 | 294 | $14,623.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.47 | 294 | $13,956.47 | $13,998.64 |
$-667.09 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.80 | 299 | $13,993.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.16 | 299 | $14,698.84 | $14,704.28 |
+$705.64 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $48.56 | 302 | $14,665.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.31 | 302 | $13,985.62 | $14,024.78 |
$-679.50 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $47.94 | 292 | $13,998.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $46.49 | 292 | $13,575.08 | $13,601.38 |
$-423.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.75 | 303 | $13,559.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $43.22 | 303 | $13,097.17 | $13,139.30 |
$-462.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.85 | 299 | $13,109.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $42.43 | 299 | $12,686.33 | $12,715.98 |
$-423.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.02 | 309 | $12,675.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $43.15 | 309 | $13,334.89 | $13,375.69 |
+$659.71 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $42.78 | 312 | $13,346.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 312 | $15,210.00 | $15,239.05 |
+$1,863.36 (+14.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $58.58 | 260 | $15,232.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $61.55 | 260 | $16,003.29 | $16,010.24 |
+$771.19 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.58 | 264 | $15,993.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:15pm ET | $63.63 | 264 | $16,798.32 | $16,815.44 |
+$805.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $74.49 | 225 | $16,759.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $72.15 | 225 | $16,234.87 | $16,291.19 |
$-524.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.66 | 215 | $16,266.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 11:30am ET | $73.17 | 215 | $15,731.55 | $15,755.84 |
$-535.35 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.37 | 188 | $15,673.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $80.67 | 188 | $15,165.02 | $15,247.30 |
$-508.54 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $76.60 | 199 | $15,243.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $73.54 | 199 | $14,634.46 | $14,638.36 |
$-608.94 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $71.63 | 204 | $14,612.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $69.21 | 204 | $14,118.78 | $14,144.62 |
$-493.74 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $75.89 | 186 | $14,115.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.88 | 186 | $15,415.68 | $15,444.76 |
+$1,300.14 (+9.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 11:25am ET | $82.11 | 188 | $15,436.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $78.71 | 188 | $14,797.48 | $14,805.56 |
$-639.20 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $81.95 | 180 | $14,751.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.96 | 180 | $13,492.80 | $13,547.36 |
$-1,258.20 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $72.89 | 185 | $13,484.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.02 | 185 | $14,433.70 | $14,496.50 |
+$949.14 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.00 | 201 | $14,472.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 12:00pm ET | $75.63 | 201 | $15,200.63 | $15,225.13 |
+$728.63 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.51 | 193 | $15,153.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $75.99 | 193 | $14,666.13 | $14,737.86 |
$-487.27 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.53 | 200 | $14,706.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $71.24 | 200 | $14,247.00 | $14,278.86 |
$-459.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $69.71 | 204 | $14,220.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.74 | 204 | $15,246.96 | $15,304.98 |
+$1,026.12 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.70 | 204 | $15,238.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $72.32 | 204 | $14,753.28 | $14,819.46 |
$-485.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $73.59 | 201 | $14,791.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $71.15 | 201 | $14,301.17 | $14,329.04 |
$-490.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $66.45 | 215 | $14,286.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $70.13 | 215 | $15,077.95 | $15,120.24 |
+$791.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.06 | 225 | $15,088.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $64.25 | 225 | $14,456.27 | $14,488.01 |
$-632.23 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $63.72 | 227 | $14,465.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.27 | 227 | $13,908.29 | $13,930.73 |
$-557.28 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $60.12 | 231 | $13,887.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $58.30 | 231 | $13,467.28 | $13,510.29 |
$-420.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $64.21 | 210 | $13,484.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 12:20pm ET | $67.56 | 210 | $14,186.55 | $14,212.74 |
+$702.45 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.07 | 199 | $14,142.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $74.83 | 199 | $14,891.19 | $14,961.00 |
+$748.26 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.27 | 204 | $14,947.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.90 | 204 | $14,463.60 | $14,477.52 |
$-483.48 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $69.11 | 209 | $14,443.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $72.57 | 209 | $15,168.17 | $15,201.72 |
+$724.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET | $71.76 | 211 | $15,142.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.14 | 211 | $14,588.54 | $14,647.85 |
$-553.88 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.93 | 212 | $14,613.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $72.68 | 212 | $15,409.22 | $15,443.91 |
+$796.06 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,443.91
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,443.91
Total Return:
+54.44%