Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,080
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,104.57
Current Value
$8,975.30
Period P&L
$-129.28
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
3 / 5
Best Trade
+5.69%
Worst Trade
-3.40%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
6.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$136,620.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-129.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-129.28
Gross Return
-1.42%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $9,104.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET $144.78 62 $8,976.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:55pm ET $140.34 62 $8,701.08 $8,829.30 $-275.28
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $135.25 65 $8,791.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET $139.59 65 $9,073.35 $9,111.40 +$282.10
(+3.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $191.03 47 $8,978.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:40am ET $184.83 47 $8,687.01 $8,820.00 $-291.40
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $180.41 48 $8,659.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $174.29 48 $8,365.68 $8,525.76 $-294.24
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $184.39 46 $8,481.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $178.80 46 $8,224.80 $8,268.62 $-257.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET $181.34 45 $8,160.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 11:20am ET $177.49 45 $7,987.05 $8,095.37 $-173.25
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:45am ET $168.93 47 $7,939.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $178.54 47 $8,391.38 $8,547.04 +$451.67
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $182.33 46 $8,387.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $191.64 46 $8,815.44 $8,975.30 +$428.26
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,975.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,024.70
Total Return: -10.25%
Back to Danny Dip