XRPUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 37 trades in period
-35.02%
Year to Date Return
$2,750.98
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$3,986.31
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.1/10
Raw Quality
4.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.2
30-Day Momentum
1
-4.3%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
49,458
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
172 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$3,986.31
Current Value
$2,750.98
Period P&L
$-1,396.20
Max Drawdown
-82.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
12 /
25
Best Trade
+7.82%
Worst Trade
-5.05%
Avg Trade Return
-0.56%
Avg Hold Time
20.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$232,091.42
Estimated Fees
$580.23
Gross P&L
$-1,396.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,976.43
Gross Return
-35.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-49.58%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 172 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,986.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $2.31 | 1,725 | $3,986.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:45pm ET | $2.24 | 1,725 | $3,855.46 | $3,835.85 |
$-150.47 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:50pm ET | $2.23 | 1,721 | $3,835.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 6:00pm ET | $2.15 | 1,721 | $3,701.78 | $3,682.93 |
$-152.92 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:50am ET | $2.07 | 1,777 | $3,682.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 6:00pm ET | $2.18 | 1,777 | $3,874.68 | $3,855.78 |
+$172.85 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 6:45pm ET | $1.99 | 1,936 | $3,855.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:10pm ET | $1.93 | 1,936 | $3,733.09 | $3,714.12 |
$-141.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:15pm ET | $1.93 | 1,920 | $3,714.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 5:30pm ET | $1.87 | 1,920 | $3,587.42 | $3,569.17 |
$-144.95 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $1.89 | 1,887 | $3,569.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 1:25pm ET | $1.83 | 1,887 | $3,461.79 | $3,444.21 |
$-124.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $1.81 | 1,901 | $3,444.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 8:40pm ET | $1.74 | 1,901 | $3,312.54 | $3,295.65 |
$-148.56 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 8:45pm ET | $1.73 | 1,900 | $3,295.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 8:30am ET | $1.68 | 1,900 | $3,185.64 | $3,169.44 |
$-126.21 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $1.63 | 1,939 | $3,169.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1.56 | 1,939 | $3,023.60 | $3,008.12 |
$-161.32 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1.57 | 1,921 | $3,008.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 6:20pm ET | $1.65 | 1,921 | $3,171.78 | $3,156.33 |
+$148.21 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $1.60 | 1,975 | $3,156.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 10:20pm ET | $1.55 | 1,975 | $3,052.24 | $3,036.72 |
$-119.61 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 10:25pm ET | $1.54 | 1,977 | $3,036.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 4:45am ET | $1.62 | 1,977 | $3,196.49 | $3,180.91 |
+$144.19 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $1.53 | 2,078 | $3,180.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1.61 | 2,078 | $3,351.95 | $3,335.61 |
+$154.70 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 8:20pm ET | $1.47 | 2,273 | $3,335.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:15am ET | $1.42 | 2,273 | $3,233.55 | $3,217.13 |
$-118.49 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 5:35am ET | $1.39 | 2,308 | $3,217.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 6:20am ET | $1.34 | 2,308 | $3,094.12 | $3,078.34 |
$-138.79 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:25am ET | $1.34 | 2,289 | $3,078.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $1.30 | 2,289 | $2,971.57 | $2,956.44 |
$-121.90 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $1.28 | 2,310 | $2,956.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1.24 | 2,310 | $2,855.58 | $2,841.05 |
$-115.39 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1.23 | 2,307 | $2,841.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $1.18 | 2,307 | $2,724.76 | $2,710.85 |
$-130.21 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1.15 | 2,347 | $2,710.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 5:45pm ET | $1.22 | 2,347 | $2,852.62 | $2,838.71 |
+$127.87 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:50pm ET | $1.21 | 2,345 | $2,838.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $1.15 | 2,345 | $2,695.38 | $2,681.55 |
$-157.17 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $1.12 | 2,385 | $2,681.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $1.21 | 2,385 | $2,891.22 | $2,877.28 |
+$195.74 (+7.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:40pm ET | $1.22 | 2,368 | $2,877.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 8:45pm ET | $1.28 | 2,368 | $3,028.17 | $3,013.41 |
+$136.13 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:20pm ET | $1.25 | 2,417 | $3,013.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:45am ET | $1.31 | 2,417 | $3,166.18 | $3,150.73 |
+$137.32 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:15am ET | $1.29 | 2,444 | $3,150.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 5:25am ET | $1.36 | 2,444 | $3,324.74 | $3,308.55 |
+$157.82 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $1.49 | 2,222 | $3,308.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1.44 | 2,222 | $3,198.01 | $3,181.74 |
$-126.81 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $1.44 | 2,206 | $3,181.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 5:30am ET | $1.40 | 2,206 | $3,079.78 | $3,064.13 |
$-117.61 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $1.35 | 2,274 | $3,064.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 7:45am ET | $1.42 | 2,274 | $3,223.74 | $3,223.74 |
+$143.89 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:30pm ET | $1.44 | 2,241 | $3,223.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $1.39 | 2,241 | $3,115.00 | $3,115.00 |
$-124.58 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET | $1.31 | 2,370 | $3,115.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 4:50am ET | $1.27 | 2,370 | $3,017.33 | $3,017.33 |
$-113.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:40pm ET | $1.54 | 1,955 | $3,017.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 7:30am ET | $1.49 | 1,955 | $2,919.78 | $2,919.78 |
$-112.40 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 8:30am ET | $1.46 | 1,995 | $2,919.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 21, 2026 7:50pm ET | $1.41 | 1,995 | $2,819.98 | $2,819.98 |
$-114.15 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET | $1.44 | 1,957 | $2,819.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1.52 | 1,957 | $2,965.58 | $2,965.58 |
+$131.14 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 4:40pm ET | $1.50 | 1,977 | $2,965.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1.45 | 1,977 | $2,873.71 | $2,873.71 |
$-106.47 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET | $1.17 | 2,458 | $2,873.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 1:40am ET | $1.13 | 2,458 | $2,787.22 | $2,787.22 |
$-100.64 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET | $1.10 | 2,523 | $2,787.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1.07 | 2,523 | $2,702.35 | $2,702.35 |
$-98.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 12:20am ET | $1.07 | 2,531 | $2,702.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 10:50pm ET | $1.12 | 2,531 | $2,837.90 | $2,837.90 |
+$121.70 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET | $1.18 | 2,406 | $2,837.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 11:40am ET | $1.14 | 2,406 | $2,750.98 | $2,750.98 |
$-100.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$2,750.98
Net Profit/Loss:
$-7,249.02
Total Return:
-72.49%