ADBE Danny Dip's Analysis
2024-02-06 15:10:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 53 trades executed
-31.75%
2 Years Return
$6,574.87
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$9,633.42
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality
3.7/100
× Confidence 0.88
= 3.3
30-Day Momentum
14
+2.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.9
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
49,788
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
531 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,633.42
Current Value
$6,574.87
Total P&L
$-3,058.56
Max Drawdown
-34.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
45
Winners / Losers
14 /
31
Best Trade
+6.15%
Worst Trade
-7.69%
Avg Trade Return
-0.79%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$631,961.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,058.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,058.56
Gross Return
-31.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.75%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 531 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $9,633.42 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:35am ET | $515.81 | 18 | $9,284.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 10:50am ET | $499.99 | 18 | $8,999.82 | $9,348.66 |
$-284.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $493.00 | 18 | $8,874.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2024 10:50am ET | $477.01 | 18 | $8,586.21 | $9,060.87 |
$-287.79 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 3, 2025 9:50am ET | $429.00 | 21 | $9,009.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $411.01 | 21 | $8,631.21 | $8,683.08 |
$-377.79 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $393.96 | 22 | $8,667.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 11:35am ET | $381.99 | 22 | $8,403.67 | $8,419.63 |
$-263.45 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:45am ET | $387.34 | 21 | $8,134.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:45am ET | $375.24 | 21 | $7,879.94 | $8,165.42 |
$-254.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:40am ET | $373.64 | 21 | $7,846.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $356.49 | 21 | $7,486.19 | $7,805.27 |
$-360.15 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $337.00 | 23 | $7,751.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 1:30pm ET | $357.71 | 23 | $8,227.33 | $8,281.60 |
+$476.33 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 10:00am ET | $340.58 | 24 | $8,173.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $361.52 | 24 | $8,676.36 | $8,784.04 |
+$502.44 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2025 9:50am ET | $402.60 | 21 | $8,454.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $387.20 | 21 | $8,131.10 | $8,460.54 |
$-323.51 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 10:25am ET | $389.57 | 21 | $8,180.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 20, 2025 10:10am ET | $377.42 | 21 | $7,925.82 | $8,205.49 |
$-255.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $378.39 | 21 | $7,946.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $366.14 | 21 | $7,688.94 | $7,948.35 |
$-257.15 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $357.79 | 22 | $7,871.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2025 10:50am ET | $347.00 | 22 | $7,634.00 | $7,710.97 |
$-237.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2025 11:45am ET | $335.00 | 23 | $7,705.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $353.54 | 23 | $8,131.42 | $8,137.39 |
+$426.42 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 10:25am ET | $345.85 | 23 | $7,954.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $335.08 | 23 | $7,706.84 | $7,889.68 |
$-247.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 11:05am ET | $346.53 | 22 | $7,623.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 11:50am ET | $364.90 | 22 | $8,027.80 | $8,293.75 |
+$404.08 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $351.97 | 23 | $8,095.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 11:55am ET | $340.95 | 23 | $7,841.85 | $8,040.29 |
$-253.46 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $347.48 | 23 | $7,992.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:10am ET | $336.68 | 23 | $7,743.64 | $7,791.89 |
$-248.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $345.65 | 22 | $7,604.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $354.06 | 22 | $7,789.21 | $7,976.80 |
+$184.91 (+2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $339.76 | 23 | $7,814.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $327.89 | 23 | $7,541.47 | $7,703.70 |
$-273.10 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $328.58 | 23 | $7,557.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $318.44 | 23 | $7,324.01 | $7,470.36 |
$-233.34 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $296.08 | 25 | $7,401.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $285.94 | 25 | $7,148.50 | $7,216.99 |
$-253.38 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.01 | 25 | $7,050.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $273.40 | 25 | $6,835.00 | $7,001.74 |
$-215.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $257.11 | 27 | $6,942.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $249.23 | 27 | $6,729.08 | $6,788.71 |
$-213.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $273.22 | 24 | $6,557.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.22 | 24 | $6,053.28 | $6,284.71 |
$-504.00 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.61 | 25 | $6,190.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $238.88 | 25 | $5,972.00 | $6,066.46 |
$-218.25 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $235.71 | 25 | $5,892.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $228.58 | 25 | $5,714.50 | $5,888.21 |
$-178.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.20 | 24 | $5,788.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $253.36 | 24 | $6,080.64 | $6,180.05 |
+$291.84 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $248.59 | 24 | $5,966.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $241.13 | 24 | $5,787.12 | $6,001.01 |
$-179.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:35am ET | $256.56 | 23 | $5,900.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $246.71 | 23 | $5,674.33 | $5,774.46 |
$-226.55 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $243.59 | 23 | $5,602.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $256.12 | 23 | $5,890.76 | $6,062.65 |
+$288.19 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.17 | 22 | $5,811.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $256.16 | 22 | $5,635.52 | $5,886.54 |
$-176.11 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $238.87 | 24 | $5,732.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $227.99 | 24 | $5,471.64 | $5,625.42 |
$-261.12 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.40 | 27 | $5,464.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $195.82 | 27 | $5,287.01 | $5,447.63 |
$-177.79 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $192.70 | 28 | $5,395.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $202.65 | 28 | $5,674.06 | $5,726.23 |
+$278.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $214.00 | 26 | $5,564.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $225.18 | 26 | $5,854.81 | $6,017.04 |
+$290.81 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.09 | 28 | $5,994.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $226.50 | 28 | $6,342.00 | $6,364.52 |
+$347.48 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.16 | 28 | $6,192.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $232.69 | 28 | $6,515.32 | $6,687.36 |
+$322.84 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $229.41 | 29 | $6,652.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $221.88 | 29 | $6,434.52 | $6,468.99 |
$-218.37 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 25 | $6,288.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $243.96 | 25 | $6,099.00 | $6,279.24 |
$-189.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $252.71 | 24 | $6,065.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $265.92 | 24 | $6,382.08 | $6,596.16 |
+$316.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $263.34 | 25 | $6,583.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $255.34 | 25 | $6,383.38 | $6,396.14 |
$-200.02 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.52 | 24 | $6,372.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.18 | 24 | $6,700.32 | $6,723.98 |
+$327.84 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.70 | 25 | $6,667.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.90 | 25 | $6,422.50 | $6,478.98 |
$-245.00 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.52 | 26 | $6,279.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $253.90 | 26 | $6,601.40 | $6,800.81 |
+$321.83 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.30 | 26 | $6,611.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $245.62 | 26 | $6,385.99 | $6,574.87 |
$-225.94 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,574.87
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,425.13
Total Return:
-34.25%