Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:33:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.1/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 38.5/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 32.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
57,040
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
533 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$13,520.93
Current Value
$16,807.34
Total P&L
$3,286.44
Max Drawdown
-21.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
57
Winners / Losers
26 / 31
Best Trade
+7.24%
Worst Trade
-5.17%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,849,247.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,286.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,286.44
Gross Return
+24.31%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 533 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $13,520.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2024 10:15am ET $46.09 293 $13,502.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2024 10:15am ET $47.49 293 $13,914.57 $13,932.59 +$411.67
(+3.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2024 9:30am ET $47.24 294 $13,888.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2024 2:30pm ET $45.82 294 $13,469.61 $13,513.64 $-418.95
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:35am ET $52.97 255 $13,507.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2024 12:15pm ET $55.62 255 $14,183.41 $14,189.69 +$676.06
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 10:50am ET $61.37 231 $14,176.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 3:25pm ET $59.06 231 $13,642.86 $13,656.08 $-533.61
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 27, 2024 10:00am ET $59.07 231 $13,645.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2024 9:55am ET $57.00 231 $13,167.00 $13,177.91 $-478.17
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2025 10:30am ET $59.54 221 $13,158.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $57.50 221 $12,707.50 $12,727.07 $-450.84
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:35am ET $55.63 228 $12,683.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2025 9:30am ET $58.61 228 $13,363.08 $13,406.51 +$679.44
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET $60.13 222 $13,348.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2025 9:35am ET $63.18 222 $14,025.96 $14,083.61 +$677.10
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $60.67 232 $14,075.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2025 11:50am ET $63.75 232 $14,790.00 $14,798.17 +$714.56
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2025 9:35am ET $64.55 229 $14,782.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 21, 2025 10:25am ET $62.60 229 $14,335.42 $14,350.68 $-447.49
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:25am ET $58.20 246 $14,317.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 10:00am ET $56.19 246 $13,821.51 $13,854.99 $-495.69
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2025 9:55am ET $55.77 248 $13,830.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET $53.26 248 $13,208.48 $13,232.51 $-622.48
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 3:20pm ET $52.95 249 $13,184.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2025 9:40am ET $51.26 249 $12,763.74 $12,811.70 $-420.81
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2025 9:55am ET $52.84 242 $12,787.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 7, 2025 10:35am ET $51.11 242 $12,368.62 $12,393.04 $-418.66
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 10:35am ET $48.95 253 $12,384.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 2:55pm ET $47.40 253 $11,992.20 $12,000.89 $-392.15
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2025 11:00am ET $48.64 246 $11,965.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 1:15pm ET $47.09 246 $11,583.65 $11,619.10 $-381.79
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET $48.71 238 $11,592.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2025 12:55pm ET $51.17 238 $12,178.46 $12,204.58 +$585.48
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2025 10:20am ET $52.32 233 $12,190.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 28, 2025 9:30am ET $50.18 233 $11,691.94 $11,705.96 $-498.62
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $46.08 254 $11,704.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 11:20am ET $48.41 254 $12,294.87 $12,296.51 +$590.55
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $46.32 265 $12,274.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 10:45am ET $44.87 265 $11,889.23 $11,910.91 $-385.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 10:45am ET $40.45 294 $11,892.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 11:10am ET $42.53 294 $12,503.82 $12,522.43 +$611.52
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
24m held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 11:10am ET $41.31 303 $12,516.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET $44.30 303 $13,422.90 $13,428.40 +$905.97
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 10:55am ET $40.55 331 $13,422.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 1:15pm ET $42.95 331 $14,216.45 $14,222.80 +$794.40
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 3:40pm ET $43.76 325 $14,220.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $45.97 325 $14,940.25 $14,942.68 +$719.87
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $49.81 300 $14,941.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 2, 2025 12:10pm ET $52.33 300 $15,697.50 $15,698.68 +$756.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
26 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 9:30am ET $49.23 318 $15,653.55 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2025 12:10pm ET $51.72 318 $16,446.96 $16,492.09 +$793.41
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
27 🟢 BUY May 15, 2025 10:30am ET $55.87 295 $16,481.65 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2025 10:30am ET $56.77 295 $16,745.68 $16,756.11 +$264.03
(+1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2025 3:15pm ET $55.83 300 $16,749.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2025 9:35am ET $59.00 300 $17,700.00 $17,707.11 +$951.00
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 12:25pm ET $67.47 262 $17,677.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2025 9:30am ET $71.11 262 $18,630.82 $18,660.27 +$953.16
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
30 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2025 9:50am ET $74.67 249 $18,592.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $71.79 249 $17,875.71 $17,943.15 $-717.12
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
31 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2025 10:55am ET $74.82 239 $17,881.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET $72.24 239 $17,265.36 $17,326.53 $-616.62
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
32 🟢 BUY Sep 5, 2025 11:00am ET $73.72 235 $17,324.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2025 9:55am ET $77.46 235 $18,203.10 $18,205.43 +$878.90
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
33 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2025 2:50pm ET $79.07 230 $18,184.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2025 11:15am ET $83.04 230 $19,099.20 $19,119.68 +$914.25
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
34 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $80.97 236 $19,108.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 29, 2025 1:25pm ET $85.11 236 $20,085.96 $20,096.72 +$977.04
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
35 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET $89.22 225 $20,074.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 3:35pm ET $86.27 225 $19,410.75 $19,432.97 $-663.75
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held
36 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $84.83 229 $19,426.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 9:55am ET $89.29 229 $20,447.48 $20,454.38 +$1,021.41
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
37 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 10:25am ET $85.67 238 $20,389.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 9:35am ET $90.08 238 $21,439.04 $21,503.96 +$1,049.58
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
38 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $84.66 254 $21,503.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:35am ET $81.91 254 $20,805.14 $20,805.46 $-698.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
39 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 10:35am ET $78.58 264 $20,745.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $83.24 264 $21,974.57 $22,034.90 +$1,229.45
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
40 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET $78.91 279 $22,015.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $74.83 279 $20,877.57 $20,896.58 $-1,138.32
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
41 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:35am ET $74.49 280 $20,857.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET $72.09 280 $20,185.20 $20,224.58 $-672.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
42 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 10:30am ET $77.20 261 $20,149.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 10:25am ET $81.32 261 $21,224.52 $21,299.90 +$1,075.32
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
43 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 9:50am ET $81.18 262 $21,269.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 1:45pm ET $78.63 262 $20,601.06 $20,631.80 $-668.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
44 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $76.67 269 $20,624.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $74.28 269 $19,981.32 $19,988.89 $-642.91
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $70.77 282 $19,957.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 1:15pm ET $68.59 282 $19,342.38 $19,374.13 $-614.76
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:45am ET $72.31 267 $19,306.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $69.98 267 $18,684.66 $18,752.02 $-622.11
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
47 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $69.83 268 $18,714.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:00pm ET $67.67 268 $18,135.56 $18,173.14 $-578.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
48 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $66.05 275 $18,163.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $69.46 275 $19,101.50 $19,110.89 +$937.75
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
49 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:10am ET $76.93 248 $19,078.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $74.14 248 $18,386.72 $18,418.62 $-692.27
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
50 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $75.88 242 $18,362.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $73.50 242 $17,787.00 $17,842.66 $-575.96
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
51 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET $77.89 229 $17,837.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:00pm ET $75.51 229 $17,292.93 $17,297.64 $-545.02
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
52 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $74.80 231 $17,278.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $72.53 231 $16,754.43 $16,773.27 $-524.37
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
53 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $78.46 213 $16,711.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $75.79 213 $16,143.27 $16,204.56 $-568.71
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
54 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $80.83 200 $16,166.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 1:45pm ET $78.30 200 $15,660.00 $15,698.56 $-506.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
55 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $77.36 202 $15,626.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $74.67 202 $15,083.34 $15,155.32 $-543.24
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
56 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:35am ET $71.55 211 $15,097.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $75.55 211 $15,941.05 $15,999.32 +$844.00
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
11d held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:15am ET $79.47 201 $15,973.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $83.49 201 $16,781.49 $16,807.34 +$808.02
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,807.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,807.34
Total Return: +68.07%
Back to Danny Dip