ISRG Danny Dip's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 35 trades executed
-28.73%
2 Years Return
$8,317.29
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$11,670.40
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality
4.4/100
× Confidence 0.78
= 3.4
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
42,993
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
516 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,670.40
Current Value
$8,317.29
Total P&L
$-3,353.13
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.28
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
30
Winners / Losers
8 /
22
Best Trade
+7.63%
Worst Trade
-4.27%
Avg Trade Return
-1.08%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$561,121.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,353.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,353.13
Gross Return
-28.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-28.73%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 516 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $11,670.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 10:50am ET | $535.44 | 21 | $11,244.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 9:45am ET | $517.84 | 21 | $10,874.64 | $11,300.80 |
$-369.60 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $578.00 | 19 | $10,982.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $587.97 | 19 | $11,171.39 | $11,490.19 |
+$189.39 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $573.51 | 20 | $11,470.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $552.36 | 20 | $11,047.20 | $11,067.19 |
$-423.00 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $550.71 | 20 | $11,014.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $528.18 | 20 | $10,563.60 | $10,616.59 |
$-450.60 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $498.74 | 21 | $10,473.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 1:40pm ET | $483.46 | 21 | $10,152.66 | $10,295.71 |
$-320.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $501.69 | 20 | $10,033.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 9:50am ET | $483.79 | 20 | $9,675.70 | $9,937.61 |
$-358.10 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 10:10am ET | $494.99 | 20 | $9,899.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $479.83 | 20 | $9,596.50 | $9,634.31 |
$-303.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $489.44 | 19 | $9,299.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $469.47 | 19 | $8,919.93 | $9,254.88 |
$-379.43 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $435.57 | 21 | $9,146.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $468.81 | 21 | $9,845.01 | $9,952.92 |
+$698.04 (+7.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 1:10pm ET | $465.91 | 21 | $9,784.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 3:45pm ET | $451.02 | 21 | $9,471.42 | $9,640.23 |
$-312.69 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $497.48 | 19 | $9,452.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 12:00pm ET | $479.59 | 19 | $9,112.21 | $9,300.42 |
$-339.82 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2025 11:15am ET | $499.70 | 18 | $8,994.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $529.25 | 18 | $9,526.50 | $9,832.32 |
+$531.90 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $504.40 | 19 | $9,583.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $530.94 | 19 | $10,087.86 | $10,336.58 |
+$504.26 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $501.34 | 20 | $10,026.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 3:05pm ET | $485.92 | 20 | $9,718.40 | $10,028.18 |
$-308.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2025 12:10pm ET | $449.88 | 22 | $9,897.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2025 1:35pm ET | $435.79 | 22 | $9,587.27 | $9,718.09 |
$-310.09 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:30am ET | $432.90 | 22 | $9,523.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 10:50am ET | $454.79 | 22 | $10,005.38 | $10,199.78 |
+$481.69 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $569.23 | 17 | $9,676.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $547.81 | 17 | $9,312.77 | $9,835.64 |
$-364.14 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $506.96 | 19 | $9,632.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $491.64 | 19 | $9,341.25 | $9,544.65 |
$-290.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $480.68 | 19 | $9,132.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $460.16 | 19 | $8,743.04 | $9,154.77 |
$-389.88 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $456.60 | 20 | $9,132.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $450.41 | 20 | $9,008.20 | $9,030.97 |
$-123.80 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $451.70 | 19 | $8,582.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $437.81 | 19 | $8,318.39 | $8,767.06 |
$-263.91 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $436.07 | 20 | $8,721.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $422.45 | 20 | $8,449.00 | $8,494.66 |
$-272.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $401.18 | 21 | $8,424.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $422.02 | 21 | $8,862.42 | $8,932.30 |
+$437.64 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET | $427.13 | 20 | $8,542.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.36 | 20 | $8,207.14 | $8,596.82 |
$-335.48 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $396.31 | 21 | $8,322.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $380.33 | 21 | $7,986.93 | $8,261.24 |
$-335.58 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.02 | 22 | $8,030.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $352.12 | 22 | $7,746.64 | $7,977.33 |
$-283.91 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $332.19 | 24 | $7,972.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $351.18 | 24 | $8,428.32 | $8,433.09 |
+$455.76 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $353.09 | 23 | $8,121.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.06 | 23 | $8,534.38 | $8,846.40 |
+$413.31 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $378.34 | 23 | $8,701.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:45am ET | $366.96 | 23 | $8,440.08 | $8,584.66 |
$-261.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $365.96 | 23 | $8,417.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $354.34 | 23 | $8,149.82 | $8,317.29 |
$-267.38 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,317.29
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,682.71
Total Return:
-16.83%