Compendium › Danny Dip › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 19 trades executed

+7.77%
2 Years Return
$12,502.94
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$11,601.24
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:34:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.0/35
Total Return
11.8/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 34.6/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 20.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
70,072
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,601.24
Current Value
$12,502.94
Total P&L
$901.69
Max Drawdown
-14.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
16
Winners / Losers
8 / 8
Best Trade
+5.19%
Worst Trade
-3.58%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
6.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$371,231.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$901.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$901.69
Gross Return
+7.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $11,601.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2024 9:30am ET $410.20 28 $11,485.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2024 9:30am ET $427.13 28 $11,959.64 $12,075.42 +$474.18
(+4.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET $424.66 28 $11,890.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2025 1:05pm ET $445.95 28 $12,486.60 $12,671.54 +$596.12
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2025 9:30am ET $416.60 30 $12,498.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2025 9:30am ET $408.65 30 $12,259.50 $12,433.05 $-238.50
(-1.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 10:55am ET $379.77 32 $12,152.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2025 10:55am ET $391.96 32 $12,542.72 $12,823.20 +$390.15
(+3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:35am ET $371.65 34 $12,636.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 2:40pm ET $360.33 34 $12,251.22 $12,438.32 $-384.88
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:55am ET $380.46 32 $12,174.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 3:20pm ET $368.75 32 $11,800.00 $12,063.76 $-374.56
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 10:35am ET $490.20 24 $11,764.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 9:55am ET $474.31 24 $11,383.32 $11,682.32 $-381.43
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 10:05am ET $475.29 24 $11,406.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 10:05am ET $476.54 24 $11,436.96 $11,712.32 +$30.00
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $432.00 27 $11,664.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $416.55 27 $11,246.98 $11,295.31 $-417.02
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET $405.35 27 $10,944.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 3:40pm ET $393.10 27 $10,613.57 $10,964.42 $-330.89
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $390.58 28 $10,936.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 1:30pm ET $410.27 28 $11,487.56 $11,515.74 +$551.32
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $419.14 27 $11,316.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET $404.39 27 $10,918.53 $11,117.63 $-398.11
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $446.97 24 $10,727.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $432.30 24 $10,375.32 $10,765.67 $-351.96
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET $358.70 30 $10,761.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET $377.30 30 $11,319.00 $11,323.67 +$558.00
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET $380.63 29 $11,038.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:00pm ET $400.38 29 $11,611.02 $11,896.42 +$572.75
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:50am ET $379.61 31 $11,768.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:20am ET $399.18 31 $12,374.58 $12,502.94 +$606.52
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,502.94
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,502.94
Total Return: +25.03%
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