PANW Danny Dip's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 64 trades executed
-32.48%
2 Years Return
$7,452.53
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$11,037.98
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
4.6/100
× Confidence 0.89
= 4.1
30-Day Momentum
4
+0.3%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.5
Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
50,407
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
533 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,037.98
Current Value
$7,452.53
Total P&L
$-3,585.47
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
52
Winners / Losers
18 /
34
Best Trade
+6.37%
Worst Trade
-9.55%
Avg Trade Return
-0.63%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$934,888.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,585.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,585.47
Gross Return
-32.48%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.48%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 533 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $11,037.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2024 10:10am ET | $168.50 | 64 | $10,784.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2024 10:10am ET | $170.87 | 64 | $10,935.36 | $10,958.30 |
+$151.36 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2024 9:40am ET | $181.79 | 60 | $10,907.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $191.41 | 60 | $11,484.30 | $11,535.20 |
+$576.90 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2024 10:05am ET | $193.94 | 59 | $11,442.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 22, 2024 12:15pm ET | $188.12 | 59 | $11,098.79 | $11,191.29 |
$-343.91 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 10:20am ET | $198.18 | 56 | $11,098.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 2:45pm ET | $192.18 | 56 | $10,762.08 | $10,855.09 |
$-336.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 27, 2024 10:30am ET | $183.23 | 59 | $10,810.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $177.64 | 59 | $10,480.76 | $10,525.28 |
$-329.81 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2025 10:35am ET | $173.81 | 60 | $10,428.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2025 9:55am ET | $168.25 | 60 | $10,095.00 | $10,191.98 |
$-333.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $168.40 | 60 | $10,104.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2025 10:55am ET | $177.49 | 60 | $10,649.40 | $10,737.38 |
+$545.40 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2025 9:40am ET | $186.93 | 57 | $10,655.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $181.29 | 57 | $10,333.53 | $10,415.90 |
$-321.48 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $190.65 | 54 | $10,295.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 14, 2025 2:50pm ET | $200.55 | 54 | $10,829.43 | $10,950.23 |
+$534.33 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $200.26 | 54 | $10,813.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2025 12:10pm ET | $194.00 | 54 | $10,476.00 | $10,612.46 |
$-337.77 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $185.93 | 57 | $10,598.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $179.64 | 57 | $10,239.20 | $10,253.65 |
$-358.82 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2025 10:25am ET | $180.82 | 56 | $10,125.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 11:40am ET | $175.26 | 56 | $9,814.56 | $9,942.57 |
$-311.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $179.07 | 55 | $9,848.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 28, 2025 10:05am ET | $173.30 | 55 | $9,531.23 | $9,624.94 |
$-317.63 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 10:15am ET | $167.07 | 57 | $9,522.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $158.92 | 57 | $9,058.16 | $9,160.11 |
$-464.84 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $148.15 | 61 | $9,036.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:15am ET | $156.60 | 61 | $9,552.68 | $9,675.94 |
+$515.84 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 1:05pm ET | $155.08 | 62 | $9,614.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 1:20pm ET | $163.33 | 62 | $10,126.46 | $10,187.75 |
+$511.81 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $162.57 | 62 | $10,079.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $171.93 | 62 | $10,659.66 | $10,768.38 |
+$580.63 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $163.89 | 65 | $10,652.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 1:05pm ET | $158.84 | 65 | $10,324.60 | $10,440.46 |
$-327.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $180.69 | 57 | $10,299.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2025 12:00pm ET | $189.74 | 57 | $10,815.35 | $10,956.48 |
+$516.02 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 10:45am ET | $198.53 | 55 | $10,918.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 3:15pm ET | $192.06 | 55 | $10,563.30 | $10,600.90 |
$-355.58 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2025 12:15pm ET | $197.84 | 53 | $10,485.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $178.94 | 53 | $9,483.82 | $9,599.47 |
$-1,001.44 (-9.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $176.10 | 54 | $9,509.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:35am ET | $170.37 | 54 | $9,199.98 | $9,290.05 |
$-309.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2025 10:35am ET | $167.56 | 55 | $9,215.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $178.23 | 55 | $9,802.65 | $9,876.90 |
+$586.85 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $216.32 | 45 | $9,734.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $209.13 | 45 | $9,410.85 | $9,553.35 |
$-323.55 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:05am ET | $192.62 | 49 | $9,438.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET | $186.67 | 49 | $9,146.83 | $9,262.04 |
$-291.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $183.09 | 50 | $9,154.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.50 | 50 | $8,825.00 | $8,932.79 |
$-329.25 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $169.27 | 52 | $8,802.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $164.14 | 52 | $8,535.28 | $8,666.03 |
$-266.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $162.26 | 53 | $8,600.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $157.24 | 53 | $8,333.72 | $8,399.71 |
$-266.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $161.73 | 51 | $8,248.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.51 | 51 | $7,573.76 | $7,725.24 |
$-674.47 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $152.45 | 50 | $7,622.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.64 | 50 | $7,382.00 | $7,484.99 |
$-240.25 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $144.78 | 51 | $7,383.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $152.16 | 51 | $7,760.16 | $7,861.37 |
+$376.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $165.31 | 47 | $7,769.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $158.08 | 47 | $7,429.76 | $7,521.47 |
$-339.90 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.33 | 51 | $7,513.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $155.27 | 51 | $7,918.77 | $7,926.41 |
+$404.94 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $168.37 | 47 | $7,913.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $161.76 | 47 | $7,602.49 | $7,615.51 |
$-310.90 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.73 | 43 | $7,470.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $182.50 | 43 | $7,847.50 | $7,992.62 |
+$377.11 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.20 | 45 | $7,884.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $184.65 | 45 | $8,309.25 | $8,417.87 |
+$425.25 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $251.99 | 33 | $8,315.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $265.49 | 33 | $8,761.17 | $8,863.37 |
+$445.50 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $288.97 | 30 | $8,669.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $279.01 | 30 | $8,370.30 | $8,564.57 |
$-298.80 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $272.65 | 31 | $8,452.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $260.95 | 31 | $8,089.45 | $8,201.87 |
$-362.70 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.99 | 24 | $8,111.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $355.43 | 24 | $8,530.32 | $8,620.43 |
+$418.56 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $346.13 | 24 | $8,307.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $333.89 | 24 | $8,013.36 | $8,326.67 |
$-293.76 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $328.33 | 25 | $8,208.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $318.17 | 25 | $7,954.13 | $8,072.67 |
$-254.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 12:40pm ET | $347.50 | 23 | $7,992.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $366.19 | 23 | $8,422.37 | $8,502.54 |
+$429.87 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $348.96 | 24 | $8,375.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $337.91 | 24 | $8,109.84 | $8,237.34 |
$-265.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $323.86 | 25 | $8,096.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $310.71 | 25 | $7,767.87 | $7,908.72 |
$-328.62 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:00am ET | $364.34 | 21 | $7,651.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $352.36 | 21 | $7,399.56 | $7,657.14 |
$-251.58 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $363.54 | 21 | $7,634.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:20am ET | $352.57 | 21 | $7,403.97 | $7,426.87 |
$-230.27 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $349.24 | 21 | $7,333.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:50pm ET | $338.14 | 21 | $7,100.94 | $7,193.86 |
$-233.01 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $367.51 | 19 | $6,982.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $356.37 | 19 | $6,771.03 | $6,982.20 |
$-211.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $370.74 | 18 | $6,673.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 12:35pm ET | $358.36 | 18 | $6,450.48 | $6,759.27 |
$-222.93 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:45am ET | $330.00 | 20 | $6,600.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $347.31 | 20 | $6,946.13 | $7,105.40 |
+$346.13 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.11 | 19 | $6,937.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $383.39 | 19 | $7,284.32 | $7,452.53 |
+$347.13 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,452.53
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,547.47
Total Return:
-25.47%