MARA Dipster's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 30 trades in period
-17.85%
Last 3 Months Return
$15,054.00
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$18,325.49
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
41
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
17.9/35
Total Return
14.6/25
Win Rate
1.8/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
41.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 40.6
30-Day Momentum
4
-6.5%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-36 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$18,325.49
Current Value
$15,054.00
Period P&L
$-3,271.49
Max Drawdown
-10.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
10 /
20
Best Trade
+8.49%
Worst Trade
-5.66%
Avg Trade Return
-0.55%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,086,105.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,271.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,271.49
Gross Return
-17.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.85%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $18,325.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.43 | 1,365 | $18,325.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.12 | 1,365 | $19,273.80 | $19,274.16 |
+$948.67 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $13.53 | 1,424 | $19,264.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 1:00pm ET | $14.22 | 1,424 | $20,249.28 | $20,258.72 |
+$984.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.43 | 1,508 | $20,252.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $12.80 | 1,508 | $19,302.25 | $19,308.68 |
$-950.04 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $12.94 | 1,491 | $19,300.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.56 | 1,491 | $18,720.55 | $18,728.23 |
$-580.45 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.78 | 1,589 | $18,718.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.78 | 1,589 | $20,307.42 | $20,317.23 |
+$1,589.00 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $13.16 | 1,543 | $20,305.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $12.69 | 1,543 | $19,588.38 | $19,599.73 |
$-717.50 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $12.16 | 1,611 | $19,589.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $11.77 | 1,611 | $18,961.63 | $18,971.60 |
$-628.13 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.88 | 1,596 | $18,963.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $11.52 | 1,596 | $18,377.94 | $18,386.35 |
$-585.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $10.62 | 1,731 | $18,383.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.33 | 1,731 | $19,612.23 | $19,615.36 |
+$1,229.01 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:30pm ET | $12.27 | 1,597 | $19,603.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.90 | 1,597 | $20,601.30 | $20,613.48 |
+$998.13 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.48 | 1,651 | $20,604.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.06 | 1,651 | $19,911.06 | $19,920.23 |
$-693.25 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.90 | 1,828 | $19,916.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.45 | 1,828 | $20,939.74 | $20,943.91 |
+$1,023.68 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $10.52 | 1,989 | $20,934.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $10.14 | 1,989 | $20,170.45 | $20,180.13 |
$-763.78 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.57 | 1,743 | $20,175.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.10 | 1,743 | $19,356.01 | $19,360.92 |
$-819.21 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.45 | 1,690 | $19,350.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.94 | 1,690 | $18,488.60 | $18,498.68 |
$-862.24 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.45 | 1,770 | $18,496.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.86 | 1,770 | $17,450.43 | $17,452.61 |
$-1,046.07 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.66 | 1,806 | $17,445.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.16 | 1,806 | $18,347.15 | $18,353.80 |
+$901.19 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.46 | 1,940 | $18,352.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.01 | 1,940 | $17,479.40 | $17,480.80 |
$-873.00 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.45 | 1,849 | $17,473.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.11 | 1,849 | $16,853.63 | $16,861.38 |
$-619.42 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:25pm ET | $9.57 | 1,760 | $16,852.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.24 | 1,760 | $18,022.40 | $18,031.78 |
+$1,170.40 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $11.81 | 1,526 | $18,029.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $11.30 | 1,526 | $17,236.17 | $17,238.26 |
$-793.52 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $11.56 | 1,490 | $17,231.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $11.16 | 1,490 | $16,628.40 | $16,634.81 |
$-603.45 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.58 | 1,436 | $16,628.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $11.22 | 1,436 | $16,104.74 | $16,110.67 |
$-524.14 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $11.88 | 1,356 | $16,102.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.40 | 1,356 | $15,458.26 | $15,466.43 |
$-644.24 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $10.37 | 1,491 | $15,461.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.05 | 1,491 | $14,977.10 | $14,981.86 |
$-484.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $11.44 | 1,309 | $14,974.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $12.02 | 1,309 | $15,727.64 | $15,734.54 |
+$752.68 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.57 | 1,359 | $15,723.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $12.24 | 1,359 | $16,632.53 | $16,643.44 |
+$908.90 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.53 | 1,442 | $16,633.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $11.13 | 1,442 | $16,042.25 | $16,052.22 |
$-591.22 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $11.16 | 1,437 | $16,044.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $10.82 | 1,437 | $15,548.34 | $15,556.45 |
$-495.77 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $13.38 | 1,162 | $15,550.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $12.95 | 1,162 | $15,047.78 | $15,054.00 |
$-502.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,054.00
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,054.00
Total Return:
+50.54%