MARA Dipster's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-25 to present • 35 trades in period
+20.56%
Last 6 Months Return
$18,325.49
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$15,200.04
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.
Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026
52
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
26.9/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
55.4/100
× Confidence 0.93
= 51.7
30-Day Momentum
6
-9.6%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1
Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-46 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,766
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-26 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$15,200.04
Current Value
$18,325.49
Period P&L
$3,125.45
Max Drawdown
-10.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
15 /
20
Best Trade
+9.76%
Worst Trade
-4.28%
Avg Trade Return
+0.65%
Avg Hold Time
19.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,219,950.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,125.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,125.45
Gross Return
+20.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+20.56%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $15,200.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.95 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,010.13 |
+$810.09 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,971.75 |
+$961.62 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.45 | 2,007 | $16,969.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $8.18 | 2,007 | $16,410.44 | $16,413.00 |
$-558.75 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $8.45 | 1,941 | $16,411.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.28 | 1,941 | $18,012.48 | $18,014.32 |
+$1,601.32 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.24 | 1,949 | $18,008.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $8.94 | 1,949 | $17,424.06 | $17,429.62 |
$-584.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.95 | 1,946 | $17,426.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.66 | 1,946 | $16,862.09 | $16,865.28 |
$-564.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $8.69 | 1,940 | $16,858.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $8.40 | 1,940 | $16,295.81 | $16,302.49 |
$-562.79 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $8.22 | 1,983 | $16,300.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.97 | 1,983 | $17,792.47 | $17,794.70 |
+$1,492.21 (+9.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.29 | 2,146 | $17,790.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 2,146 | $17,168.00 | $17,172.36 |
$-622.34 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $7.92 | 2,167 | $17,168.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $7.66 | 2,167 | $16,600.95 | $16,604.82 |
$-567.54 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 2,131 | $16,600.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 2,131 | $17,591.41 | $17,595.74 |
+$990.92 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.67 | 2,029 | $17,591.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.39 | 2,029 | $17,023.11 | $17,027.42 |
$-568.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $9.43 | 1,805 | $17,021.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $9.92 | 1,805 | $17,901.99 | $17,908.26 |
+$880.84 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $9.40 | 1,905 | $17,907.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.95 | 1,905 | $18,956.66 | $18,957.73 |
+$1,049.47 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.71 | 1,618 | $18,946.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 1,618 | $18,289.39 | $18,300.34 |
$-657.39 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.35 | 1,612 | $18,295.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 1,612 | $19,215.04 | $19,219.50 |
+$919.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $11.78 | 1,630 | $19,209.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.41 | 1,630 | $18,606.45 | $18,616.56 |
$-602.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.18 | 1,665 | $18,614.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 1,665 | $17,932.05 | $17,934.08 |
$-682.48 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.65 | 1,683 | $17,923.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.31 | 1,683 | $17,343.32 | $17,353.45 |
$-580.63 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.38 | 1,524 | $17,343.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $11.99 | 1,524 | $18,280.38 | $18,290.56 |
+$937.11 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.80 | 1,550 | $18,290.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $11.44 | 1,550 | $17,739.75 | $17,740.31 |
$-550.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $12.43 | 1,427 | $17,737.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $13.10 | 1,427 | $18,686.57 | $18,689.26 |
+$948.95 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.30 | 1,519 | $18,683.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $13.02 | 1,519 | $19,784.97 | $19,790.84 |
+$1,101.58 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.83 | 1,542 | $19,783.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $12.37 | 1,542 | $19,074.54 | $19,081.52 |
$-709.32 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $12.65 | 1,508 | $19,076.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:15am ET | $13.31 | 1,508 | $20,074.95 | $20,080.27 |
+$998.75 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 11:15am ET | $12.15 | 1,653 | $20,075.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.63 | 1,653 | $19,216.13 | $19,220.71 |
$-859.56 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.64 | 1,651 | $19,209.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 12:55pm ET | $12.27 | 1,651 | $20,257.77 | $20,269.10 |
+$1,048.39 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.98 | 1,449 | $20,257.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.69 | 1,449 | $21,293.05 | $21,305.14 |
+$1,036.04 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.38 | 1,482 | $21,303.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.81 | 1,482 | $20,466.42 | $20,467.81 |
$-837.33 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.38 | 1,529 | $20,458.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.98 | 1,529 | $19,838.78 | $19,848.57 |
$-619.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.79 | 1,439 | $19,843.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $13.34 | 1,439 | $19,196.26 | $19,201.02 |
$-647.55 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $12.94 | 1,484 | $19,199.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET | $13.67 | 1,484 | $20,286.28 | $20,287.31 |
+$1,086.29 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 11:15am ET | $14.66 | 1,383 | $20,274.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $14.22 | 1,383 | $19,666.26 | $19,678.79 |
$-608.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.82 | 1,243 | $19,664.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $15.32 | 1,243 | $19,043.01 | $19,057.54 |
$-621.25 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.31 | 1,331 | $19,053.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $13.77 | 1,331 | $18,321.22 | $18,325.49 |
$-732.05 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,325.49
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,325.49
Total Return:
+83.25%