Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:54:40

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 6.3/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

15
+2.9%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.3 Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
49,788
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
531 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$9,886.91
Total P&L
$-113.09
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
23
Winners / Losers
10 / 13
Best Trade
+5.80%
Worst Trade
-7.64%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$404,853.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-113.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-113.09
Gross Return
-1.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 531 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 12, 2025 9:30am ET $345.78 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET $354.35 0 $0.00 $10,239.82 +$239.82
(+2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:45am ET $273.09 37 $10,104.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $252.22 37 $9,332.14 $9,467.63 $-772.19
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:40am ET $246.99 38 $9,385.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $238.88 38 $9,077.44 $9,159.45 $-308.18
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $235.71 38 $8,956.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 1:35pm ET $228.58 38 $8,686.04 $8,888.51 $-270.94
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $241.20 36 $8,683.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:15am ET $253.36 36 $9,120.96 $9,326.27 +$437.76
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
11d held
6 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 10:00am ET $248.59 37 $9,197.83 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 3:25pm ET $241.13 37 $8,921.81 $9,050.25 $-276.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
7 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:35am ET $256.56 35 $8,979.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $246.71 35 $8,634.85 $8,705.50 $-344.75
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
8 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 9:35am ET $243.59 35 $8,525.65 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:50am ET $256.12 35 $8,964.20 $9,144.05 +$438.55
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $264.17 34 $8,981.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $254.95 34 $8,668.30 $8,830.74 $-313.31
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $238.87 36 $8,599.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $227.99 36 $8,207.46 $8,439.06 $-391.68
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $202.40 41 $8,298.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $195.82 41 $8,028.42 $8,169.08 $-269.98
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 11:30am ET $192.70 42 $8,093.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $202.65 42 $8,511.09 $8,586.98 +$417.90
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $214.00 40 $8,560.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:00am ET $225.18 40 $9,007.40 $9,034.38 +$447.40
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $214.09 42 $8,991.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $226.50 42 $9,513.00 $9,555.60 +$521.22
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $220.20 43 $9,468.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:40pm ET $231.23 43 $9,942.89 $10,029.89 +$474.29
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $229.41 43 $9,864.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:25am ET $221.88 43 $9,540.84 $9,706.10 $-323.79
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $251.55 38 $9,558.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:25am ET $243.96 38 $9,270.48 $9,417.68 $-288.42
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:30am ET $252.71 37 $9,350.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $265.92 37 $9,839.04 $9,906.27 +$488.59
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:45am ET $263.34 37 $9,743.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:50am ET $255.34 37 $9,447.40 $9,610.23 $-296.04
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $265.52 36 $9,558.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $279.18 36 $10,050.48 $10,101.99 +$491.76
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $266.70 37 $9,867.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 37 $9,505.30 $9,739.39 $-362.60
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $241.52 40 $9,660.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $253.90 40 $10,156.00 $10,234.51 +$495.12
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $254.30 40 $10,172.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:45am ET $245.62 40 $9,824.60 $9,886.91 $-347.60
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,886.91
Net Profit/Loss: $-113.09
Total Return: -1.13%
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