MRNA Dipster's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 54 trades in period
+93.58%
Year to Date Return
$16,338.80
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$8,440.38
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.6/35
Total Return
14.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
27.7/100
× Confidence 0.94
= 26.1
30-Day Momentum
32
+9.9%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 40.0
Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,086
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,440.38
Current Value
$16,338.80
Period P&L
$7,898.42
Max Drawdown
-29.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
22 /
32
Best Trade
+86.85%
Worst Trade
-6.48%
Avg Trade Return
+1.78%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,024,353.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,898.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,898.42
Gross Return
+93.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+93.58%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $8,440.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,293.38 |
$-147.00 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.19 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $41.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,017.86 |
$-275.52 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $39.18 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,463.90 |
+$446.04 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $57.33 | 147 | $8,427.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $55.60 | 147 | $8,173.93 | $8,210.32 |
$-253.58 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $49.65 | 165 | $8,192.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:40pm ET | $52.15 | 165 | $8,604.75 | $8,622.82 |
+$412.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.04 | 162 | $8,592.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.35 | 162 | $9,128.70 | $9,159.04 |
+$536.22 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.98 | 169 | $9,122.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $52.34 | 169 | $8,845.46 | $8,881.68 |
$-277.36 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $53.91 | 164 | $8,841.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $52.06 | 164 | $8,537.84 | $8,578.28 |
$-303.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $50.60 | 169 | $8,551.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.15 | 169 | $8,981.51 | $9,008.39 |
+$430.11 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.92 | 173 | $8,982.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $50.17 | 173 | $8,679.41 | $8,705.64 |
$-302.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:00pm ET | $48.14 | 180 | $8,665.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $50.59 | 180 | $9,106.20 | $9,146.14 |
+$440.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $50.01 | 182 | $9,101.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 182 | $8,756.38 | $8,800.72 |
$-345.42 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.64 | 173 | $8,760.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.76 | 173 | $9,300.48 | $9,340.48 |
+$539.76 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $53.68 | 174 | $9,340.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.96 | 174 | $9,041.28 | $9,041.44 |
$-299.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.19 | 183 | $9,002.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.70 | 183 | $8,729.50 | $8,768.26 |
$-273.18 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $45.15 | 194 | $8,758.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $47.74 | 194 | $9,261.56 | $9,271.69 |
+$503.43 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $44.28 | 209 | $9,254.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.58 | 209 | $9,735.22 | $9,752.39 |
+$480.70 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $49.96 | 195 | $9,742.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:40am ET | $48.30 | 195 | $9,418.50 | $9,428.69 |
$-323.70 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 11:50am ET | $54.38 | 173 | $9,408.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 12:50pm ET | $57.32 | 173 | $9,916.36 | $9,936.96 |
+$508.27 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 12:50pm ET | $54.28 | 183 | $9,933.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:55pm ET | $52.32 | 183 | $9,573.86 | $9,577.58 |
$-359.38 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.87 | 181 | $9,569.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.17 | 181 | $9,260.87 | $9,268.79 |
$-308.79 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.19 | 188 | $9,247.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.69 | 188 | $8,965.72 | $8,986.79 |
$-282.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $46.92 | 191 | $8,962.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $45.06 | 191 | $8,606.46 | $8,630.58 |
$-356.21 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $44.13 | 195 | $8,606.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $46.43 | 195 | $9,052.89 | $9,077.15 |
+$446.57 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $50.19 | 180 | $9,033.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $48.66 | 180 | $8,758.80 | $8,802.65 |
$-274.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $47.11 | 186 | $8,762.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $45.59 | 186 | $8,479.74 | $8,519.93 |
$-282.72 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $55.75 | 152 | $8,474.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:50am ET | $58.55 | 152 | $8,899.57 | $8,945.50 |
+$425.57 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.31 | 145 | $8,889.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.23 | 145 | $8,588.34 | $8,644.61 |
$-300.89 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:15am ET | $61.85 | 139 | $8,597.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $59.95 | 139 | $8,333.05 | $8,380.51 |
$-264.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $66.61 | 125 | $8,326.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.51 | 125 | $8,939.37 | $8,993.01 |
+$612.50 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $71.57 | 125 | $8,946.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.80 | 125 | $9,475.00 | $9,521.76 |
+$528.75 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $82.73 | 115 | $9,513.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $79.27 | 115 | $9,116.05 | $9,124.40 |
$-397.36 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $76.28 | 119 | $9,076.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 12:00pm ET | $73.85 | 119 | $8,788.04 | $8,835.72 |
$-288.68 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.45 | 120 | $8,813.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $70.72 | 120 | $8,487.00 | $8,509.02 |
$-326.70 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $65.66 | 129 | $8,470.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:20pm ET | $63.63 | 129 | $8,208.27 | $8,247.15 |
$-261.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:35pm ET | $59.47 | 138 | $8,206.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $57.41 | 138 | $7,922.58 | $7,962.87 |
$-284.28 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $55.12 | 144 | $7,937.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $53.41 | 144 | $7,691.04 | $7,716.64 |
$-246.23 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $56.58 | 136 | $7,695.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.92 | 136 | $7,197.12 | $7,218.20 |
$-498.44 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $56.27 | 128 | $7,202.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $59.15 | 128 | $7,571.20 | $7,586.84 |
+$368.64 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $55.57 | 136 | $7,557.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $53.75 | 136 | $7,310.00 | $7,339.32 |
$-247.52 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.5h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $59.26 | 123 | $7,288.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:00am ET | $62.33 | 123 | $7,665.98 | $7,716.33 |
+$377.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.71 | 125 | $7,713.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $64.87 | 125 | $8,108.78 | $8,111.36 |
+$395.03 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $63.21 | 128 | $8,090.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.10 | 128 | $15,116.72 | $15,137.84 |
+$7,026.48 (+86.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.60 | 99 | $15,107.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.05 | 99 | $14,557.79 | $14,588.23 |
$-549.61 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $152.41 | 95 | $14,478.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $147.77 | 95 | $14,038.15 | $14,147.54 |
$-440.69 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $137.65 | 102 | $14,039.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.42 | 102 | $15,036.37 | $15,144.12 |
+$996.58 (+7.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.50 | 100 | $15,050.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 2:00pm ET | $145.83 | 100 | $14,583.39 | $14,677.51 |
$-466.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $139.39 | 105 | $14,635.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $134.80 | 105 | $14,154.00 | $14,195.97 |
$-481.54 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 2:10pm ET | $139.17 | 102 | $14,195.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $146.42 | 102 | $14,934.85 | $14,935.13 |
+$739.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $147.81 | 101 | $14,928.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $143.21 | 101 | $14,464.71 | $14,471.03 |
$-464.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $137.68 | 105 | $14,456.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.29 | 105 | $13,784.93 | $13,799.22 |
$-671.81 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.88 | 96 | $13,716.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.56 | 96 | $14,645.76 | $14,728.50 |
+$929.28 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.56 | 86 | $14,582.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:05am ET | $179.06 | 86 | $15,398.98 | $15,545.32 |
+$816.82 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $185.40 | 83 | $15,388.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $194.96 | 83 | $16,181.68 | $16,338.80 |
+$793.48 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,338.80
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,338.80
Total Return:
+63.39%