MU Dipster's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 54 trades executed
+163.20%
2 Years Return
$25,478.65
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$9,680.33
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
60
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.2/25
Win Rate
5.1/15
Profit Factor
5.2/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
70.0/100
× Confidence 0.86
= 60.1
30-Day Momentum
11
+1.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.3
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-49 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
73,744
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
2 days with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2024-11-29 (no data), 2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,680.33
Current Value
$25,478.65
Total P&L
$15,798.32
Max Drawdown
-3.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
52
Winners / Losers
29 /
23
Best Trade
+23.71%
Worst Trade
-8.72%
Avg Trade Return
+2.08%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,876,687.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$15,798.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$15,798.32
Gross Return
+163.20%
Net Return (after fees)
+163.20%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Dipster had $9,680.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 11:00am ET | $87.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 11:05am ET | $94.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,459.55 |
+$779.22 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $94.29 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $96.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,711.45 |
+$251.90 (+2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 10:20am ET | $66.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $72.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,580.25 |
+$868.80 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $382.14 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,946.70 |
+$366.45 (+3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $391.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,565.10 |
+$618.40 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $397.77 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 12:40pm ET | $418.20 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,198.43 |
+$633.33 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $380.92 | 34 | $12,951.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET | $369.23 | 34 | $12,553.98 | $12,800.96 |
$-397.47 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $408.49 | 31 | $12,663.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.54 | 31 | $13,842.74 | $13,980.51 |
+$1,179.55 (+9.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.00 | 32 | $13,568.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $449.11 | 32 | $14,371.36 | $14,783.87 |
+$803.36 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $433.79 | 34 | $14,748.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:55pm ET | $420.70 | 34 | $14,303.83 | $14,339.01 |
$-444.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $391.70 | 36 | $14,101.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $377.00 | 36 | $13,572.00 | $13,809.81 |
$-529.20 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $369.00 | 37 | $13,653.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $357.85 | 37 | $13,240.45 | $13,397.26 |
$-412.55 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $345.18 | 38 | $13,117.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 12:00pm ET | $332.80 | 38 | $12,646.40 | $12,926.63 |
$-470.63 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.91 | 37 | $12,613.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $358.14 | 37 | $13,251.18 | $13,564.29 |
+$637.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $368.20 | 36 | $13,255.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.18 | 36 | $14,910.66 | $15,219.57 |
+$1,655.28 (+12.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $401.55 | 37 | $14,857.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $423.13 | 37 | $15,655.63 | $16,017.85 |
+$798.28 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET | $449.54 | 35 | $15,733.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $474.45 | 35 | $16,605.92 | $16,890.05 |
+$872.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $475.27 | 35 | $16,634.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $499.12 | 35 | $17,469.20 | $17,724.63 |
+$834.58 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 35 | $17,579.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $527.40 | 35 | $18,459.00 | $18,604.18 |
+$879.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $510.53 | 36 | $18,378.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $537.09 | 36 | $19,335.42 | $19,560.70 |
+$956.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $629.81 | 31 | $19,524.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $662.80 | 31 | $20,546.80 | $20,583.39 |
+$1,022.69 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:50am ET | $658.08 | 31 | $20,400.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $637.79 | 31 | $19,771.49 | $19,954.40 |
$-628.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $773.85 | 25 | $19,346.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 2:35pm ET | $813.78 | 25 | $20,344.53 | $20,952.56 |
+$998.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $731.76 | 28 | $20,489.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:30am ET | $708.73 | 28 | $19,844.58 | $20,307.86 |
$-644.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:30am ET | $663.80 | 30 | $19,914.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 12:05pm ET | $700.85 | 30 | $21,025.50 | $21,419.36 |
+$1,111.50 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $914.05 | 23 | $21,023.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $969.00 | 23 | $22,287.00 | $22,683.10 |
+$1,263.74 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,034.80 | 21 | $21,730.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $989.61 | 21 | $20,781.81 | $21,734.11 |
$-948.99 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $935.16 | 23 | $21,508.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $906.34 | 23 | $20,845.93 | $21,071.48 |
$-662.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $952.70 | 22 | $20,959.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $916.71 | 22 | $20,167.62 | $20,279.70 |
$-791.78 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $913.17 | 22 | $20,089.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 2:50pm ET | $965.06 | 22 | $21,231.32 | $21,421.28 |
+$1,141.58 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,064.58 | 20 | $21,291.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,029.87 | 20 | $20,597.40 | $20,727.15 |
$-694.13 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,049.93 | 19 | $19,948.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,108.30 | 19 | $21,057.70 | $21,836.18 |
+$1,109.03 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,078.93 | 20 | $21,578.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1,043.23 | 20 | $20,864.60 | $21,122.28 |
$-713.90 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $992.80 | 21 | $20,848.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,228.15 | 21 | $25,791.05 | $26,064.53 |
+$4,942.25 (+23.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,136.76 | 22 | $25,008.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,090.82 | 22 | $23,998.15 | $25,053.96 |
$-1,010.57 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,068.12 | 23 | $24,566.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,032.52 | 23 | $23,747.96 | $24,235.16 |
$-818.80 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $917.57 | 26 | $23,856.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,012.41 | 26 | $26,322.66 | $26,701.00 |
+$2,465.84 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $961.78 | 27 | $25,968.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $916.62 | 27 | $24,748.77 | $25,481.71 |
$-1,219.29 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $953.47 | 26 | $24,790.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $921.45 | 26 | $23,957.57 | $24,649.06 |
$-832.65 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $869.63 | 28 | $24,349.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $842.18 | 28 | $23,581.04 | $23,880.46 |
$-768.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $874.85 | 27 | $23,621.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $931.08 | 27 | $25,139.03 | $25,398.40 |
+$1,517.94 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $951.53 | 26 | $24,739.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $922.67 | 26 | $23,989.42 | $24,648.17 |
$-750.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $860.22 | 28 | $24,086.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $832.72 | 28 | $23,316.05 | $23,878.06 |
$-770.11 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $803.87 | 29 | $23,312.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $778.24 | 29 | $22,569.10 | $23,134.99 |
$-743.07 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $888.91 | 26 | $23,111.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $846.34 | 26 | $22,004.84 | $22,028.13 |
$-1,106.86 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $787.11 | 27 | $21,251.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 11:00am ET | $826.55 | 27 | $22,316.85 | $23,093.01 |
+$1,064.88 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $841.43 | 27 | $22,718.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $887.65 | 27 | $23,966.42 | $24,340.82 |
+$1,247.81 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $855.30 | 28 | $23,948.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $916.79 | 28 | $25,670.12 | $26,062.40 |
+$1,721.58 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $957.26 | 27 | $25,846.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $922.00 | 27 | $24,894.00 | $25,110.38 |
$-952.02 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $912.27 | 27 | $24,631.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $967.78 | 27 | $26,130.06 | $26,609.29 |
+$1,498.91 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $927.97 | 28 | $25,983.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $974.49 | 28 | $27,285.72 | $27,911.85 |
+$1,302.56 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $996.58 | 28 | $27,904.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $909.68 | 28 | $25,471.04 | $25,478.65 |
$-2,433.20 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$25,478.65
Net Profit/Loss:
+$15,478.65
Total Return:
+154.79%