Compendium › Earnings Stress › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Earnings Stress's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 13:40:00+00 • 7 trades executed

+3.61%
2 Years Return
$10,848.12
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,470.44
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:06

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
23.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
27.5/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
52,831
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,470.44
Current Value
$10,848.12
Total P&L
$377.68
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+11.58%
Worst Trade
-8.73%
Avg Trade Return
+1.17%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$91,262.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$377.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$377.68
Gross Return
+3.61%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Earnings Stress had $10,470.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $757.23 14 $10,470.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $844.95 14 $11,683.37 $11,683.37 +$1,212.93
(+11.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 9, 2024 11:55am ET $892.66 13 $11,683.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2024 3:55pm ET $930.29 13 $12,175.92 $12,175.92 +$492.55
(+4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $870.05 14 $12,175.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 14 $11,112.62 $11,112.62 $-1,063.30
(-8.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 14 $11,112.62 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $775.17 14 $10,848.12 $10,848.12 $-264.50
(-2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,848.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$848.12
Total Return: +8.48%
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