Compendium › Fear Fade › SOFI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SOFI
Alpaca Tradeable

Fear Fade's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 5 trades in period

+4.67%
Last Year Return
$11,761.80
Current Value
80%
Win Rate
$11,236.98
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:47:21

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jun 17, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 51%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.3/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
11.6/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 42.5/100
× Confidence 0.51 = 21.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (51%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,908
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,236.98
Current Value
$11,761.80
Period P&L
$524.83
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
4 / 1
Best Trade
+6.06%
Worst Trade
-11.25%
Avg Trade Return
+1.14%
Avg Hold Time
8.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$121,782.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$524.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$524.83
Gross Return
+4.67%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.67%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Fear Fade had $11,236.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2025 9:30am ET $26.77 419 $11,216.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET $27.12 419 $11,361.19 $11,381.53 +$144.56
(+1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $26.39 431 $11,374.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $27.99 431 $12,063.69 $12,071.13 +$689.60
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET $24.91 484 $12,055.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $26.31 484 $12,734.04 $12,749.60 +$678.47
(+5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $20.15 632 $12,734.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $20.94 632 $13,237.24 $13,252.04 +$502.44
(+3.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET $19.42 682 $13,247.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $17.24 682 $11,757.61 $11,761.80 $-1,490.24
(-11.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
32.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,761.80
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,761.80
Total Return: +17.62%
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