Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:30:12

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.4/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 37.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 37.0

30-Day Momentum

36
+4.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.4 Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,732.93
Current Value
$15,032.67
Period P&L
$299.70
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
4 / 7
Best Trade
+2.95%
Worst Trade
-1.98%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
17.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$336,124.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$299.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$299.70
Gross Return
+2.03%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.03%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,732.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $84.73 173 $14,658.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:30pm ET $86.57 173 $14,976.61 $15,051.29 +$318.32
(+2.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $86.33 174 $15,021.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $87.46 174 $15,218.04 $15,247.56 +$196.27
(+1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:30pm ET $84.61 180 $15,229.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $83.75 180 $15,075.90 $15,093.66 $-153.90
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $83.38 181 $15,091.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $85.84 181 $15,537.04 $15,538.92 +$445.26
(+3.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 11:05am ET $86.09 180 $15,496.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET $86.33 180 $15,539.40 $15,582.12 +$43.20
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $84.00 185 $15,540.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 12:15pm ET $83.96 185 $15,532.60 $15,574.72 $-7.40
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:25pm ET $84.99 183 $15,553.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $83.90 183 $15,354.61 $15,376.17 $-198.55
(-1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $83.95 183 $15,362.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:00pm ET $83.82 183 $15,339.06 $15,352.38 $-23.79
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $86.92 176 $15,297.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $86.84 176 $15,283.84 $15,338.30 $-14.08
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
45m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:45pm ET $90.72 169 $15,331.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $90.71 169 $15,329.99 $15,336.61 $-1.69
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET $91.79 167 $15,328.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:10am ET $89.97 167 $15,024.99 $15,032.67 $-303.94
(-2.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,032.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,032.67
Total Return: +50.33%
Back to Grace Crossover