Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:35:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

7
-4.0%
30d Return
22%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6 Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,662.31
Current Value
$9,305.10
Period P&L
$-357.23
Max Drawdown
-15.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
3 / 7
Best Trade
+2.28%
Worst Trade
-3.45%
Avg Trade Return
-0.17%
Avg Hold Time
23.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$186,427.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-357.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$-357.23
Gross Return
-3.70%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,662.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:30pm ET $107.38 88 $9,449.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 12:25pm ET $109.83 88 $9,665.04 $9,695.33 +$215.51
(+2.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $111.39 87 $9,691.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:20pm ET $107.55 87 $9,356.85 $9,361.16 $-334.17
(-3.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:10pm ET $107.57 87 $9,358.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $107.49 87 $9,351.63 $9,354.63 $-6.53
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:15pm ET $107.68 86 $9,260.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 2:55pm ET $107.56 86 $9,250.16 $9,344.31 $-10.32
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $104.59 89 $9,308.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $103.74 89 $9,232.86 $9,269.01 $-75.30
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:20am ET $104.49 88 $9,195.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $104.86 88 $9,227.24 $9,301.13 +$32.12
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:40pm ET $106.77 87 $9,288.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $106.49 87 $9,264.63 $9,276.77 $-24.36
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 11:25am ET $107.66 86 $9,258.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $107.36 86 $9,232.96 $9,250.97 $-25.80
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:15pm ET $102.93 89 $9,160.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:15pm ET $104.14 89 $9,268.46 $9,358.66 +$107.69
(+1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:10pm ET $103.67 90 $9,330.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET $103.07 90 $9,276.75 $9,305.10 $-53.56
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,305.10
Net Profit/Loss: $-694.90
Total Return: -6.95%
Back to Grace Crossover