Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:35:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.4/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 33.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 33.2

30-Day Momentum

9
-2.4%
30d Return
18%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,776.61
Current Value
$14,795.29
Period P&L
$18.66
Max Drawdown
-13.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
3 / 10
Best Trade
+2.88%
Worst Trade
-1.31%
Avg Trade Return
+0.01%
Avg Hold Time
9.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$361,096.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$18.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$18.66
Gross Return
+0.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,776.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $1,244.46 11 $13,689.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $1,242.63 11 $13,668.88 $14,756.45 $-20.18
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 1:25pm ET $1,198.61 12 $14,383.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 1:50pm ET $1,193.49 12 $14,321.88 $14,694.97 $-61.48
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 11:35am ET $1,158.08 12 $13,896.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 1:30pm ET $1,156.79 12 $13,881.48 $14,679.49 $-15.48
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 2:25pm ET $1,165.37 12 $13,984.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:35pm ET $1,162.32 12 $13,947.90 $14,642.95 $-36.54
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:05pm ET $1,147.26 12 $13,767.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 12:40pm ET $1,145.52 12 $13,746.24 $14,622.07 $-20.88
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 12:45pm ET $1,127.15 12 $13,525.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $1,126.24 12 $13,514.93 $14,611.20 $-10.87
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:05pm ET $1,124.69 12 $13,496.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:45am ET $1,124.67 12 $13,495.98 $14,610.84 $-0.36
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:50am ET $1,121.69 13 $14,582.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 1:35pm ET $1,122.01 13 $14,586.13 $14,614.94 +$4.10
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,156.89 12 $13,882.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $1,141.71 12 $13,700.58 $14,432.89 $-182.05
(-1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $1,149.91 12 $13,798.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:05pm ET $1,144.43 12 $13,733.16 $14,367.13 $-65.76
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:45pm ET $1,145.30 12 $13,743.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,144.00 12 $13,728.00 $14,351.59 $-15.54
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET $1,162.13 12 $13,945.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $1,165.94 12 $13,991.22 $14,397.25 +$45.66
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 2:50pm ET $1,153.59 12 $13,843.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,186.76 12 $14,241.12 $14,795.29 +$398.04
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,795.29
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,795.29
Total Return: +47.95%
Back to Grace Crossover