Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:30:26

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

56
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
29.1/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 56.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 56.0

30-Day Momentum

20
+2.4%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.8 Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-36 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$17,977.31
Current Value
$18,377.10
Period P&L
$399.78
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
4 / 6
Best Trade
+8.57%
Worst Trade
-4.30%
Avg Trade Return
+0.25%
Avg Hold Time
22.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$362,214.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$399.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$399.78
Gross Return
+2.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $17,977.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $351.21 51 $17,911.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:05pm ET $336.67 51 $17,170.17 $17,286.53 $-741.54
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $358.56 48 $17,210.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:05pm ET $368.82 48 $17,703.43 $17,779.08 +$492.55
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $360.02 49 $17,640.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $359.40 49 $17,610.60 $17,748.94 $-30.14
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:25pm ET $329.76 53 $17,477.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $328.02 53 $17,385.06 $17,656.93 $-92.01
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET $331.72 53 $17,581.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:00am ET $335.93 53 $17,804.29 $17,880.06 +$223.13
(+1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $340.37 52 $17,699.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET $369.54 52 $19,216.08 $19,396.90 +$1,516.84
(+8.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:45pm ET $377.48 51 $19,251.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET $377.83 51 $19,269.33 $19,414.75 +$17.85
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:55pm ET $376.20 51 $19,186.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:55am ET $360.04 51 $18,362.04 $18,590.34 $-824.41
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $371.11 50 $18,555.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $368.33 50 $18,416.75 $18,451.59 $-138.75
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 10:45am ET $391.88 47 $18,418.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:40am ET $390.30 47 $18,343.87 $18,377.10 $-74.49
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,377.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,377.10
Total Return: +83.77%
Back to Grace Crossover