Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 19:22:20

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.6/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 27.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 27.0

30-Day Momentum

41
+8.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.3 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,211.54
Current Value
$15,427.56
Period P&L
$1,215.97
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+8.81%
Worst Trade
-4.09%
Avg Trade Return
+1.09%
Avg Hold Time
14.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$240,902.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,215.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,215.97
Gross Return
+8.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,211.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:25pm ET $20.72 685 $14,193.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET $21.16 685 $14,494.60 $14,512.99 +$301.40
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $18.44 786 $14,497.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $18.26 786 $14,353.07 $14,368.29 $-144.70
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:40am ET $17.86 804 $14,359.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET $19.43 804 $15,624.86 $15,633.71 +$1,265.42
(+8.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $22.60 691 $15,616.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $21.67 691 $14,977.42 $14,994.53 $-639.18
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:50pm ET $21.29 704 $14,988.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 12:50pm ET $21.58 704 $15,195.77 $15,202.14 +$207.61
(+1.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
23h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $21.32 713 $15,201.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $21.77 713 $15,525.57 $15,526.55 +$324.41
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $24.58 631 $15,513.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 3:05pm ET $24.51 631 $15,468.96 $15,482.38 $-44.17
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:45pm ET $23.99 645 $15,473.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $23.91 645 $15,418.73 $15,427.56 $-54.82
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,427.56
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,427.56
Total Return: +54.28%
Back to Grace Crossover