Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:08:55

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.4/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 36.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 36.1

30-Day Momentum

9
-6.4%
30d Return
18%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$22,322.18
Current Value
$20,901.90
Period P&L
$-1,420.20
Max Drawdown
-33.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.44

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
2 / 9
Best Trade
+1.90%
Worst Trade
-4.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.59%
Avg Hold Time
9.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$483,851.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,420.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,420.20
Gross Return
-6.36%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $22,322.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 11:10am ET $16.71 1,335 $22,307.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:20pm ET $16.78 1,335 $22,396.23 $22,410.48 +$88.38
(+0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:35pm ET $16.73 1,339 $22,401.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:30pm ET $16.70 1,339 $22,356.35 $22,365.36 $-45.12
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:00pm ET $15.66 1,428 $22,362.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $15.56 1,428 $22,212.54 $22,215.42 $-149.94
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
2h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 3:10pm ET $15.55 1,429 $22,213.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $15.84 1,429 $22,635.36 $22,636.98 +$421.56
(+1.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:05pm ET $15.69 1,442 $22,632.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 1:55pm ET $15.65 1,442 $22,560.09 $22,564.88 $-72.10
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET $16.25 1,388 $22,561.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 11:40am ET $16.11 1,388 $22,367.62 $22,370.56 $-194.32
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 12:05pm ET $16.37 1,366 $22,364.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 12:15pm ET $16.26 1,366 $22,211.30 $22,217.30 $-153.26
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 12:25pm ET $16.01 1,387 $22,212.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET $15.37 1,387 $21,315.69 $21,320.19 $-897.11
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:50pm ET $15.38 1,386 $21,309.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 1:30pm ET $15.30 1,386 $21,198.87 $21,209.31 $-110.88
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 12:55pm ET $15.07 1,407 $21,203.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:40pm ET $14.98 1,407 $21,069.83 $21,075.65 $-133.66
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 2:05pm ET $15.15 1,390 $21,065.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $15.03 1,390 $20,891.70 $20,901.90 $-173.75
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,901.90
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,901.90
Total Return: +109.02%
Back to Grace Crossover