Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-26 23:12:02

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
13
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.9
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.40%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.78
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
⛈️ 3.6
Severe
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 26, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 3.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

12
+0.4%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.9 Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-26
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,042.04
Current Value
$9,078.77
Period P&L
$36.71
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+0.41%
Worst Trade
-0.43%
Avg Trade Return
+0.05%
Avg Hold Time
18.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$144,256.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$36.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$36.71
Gross Return
+0.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,042.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 2:30pm ET $85.05 106 $9,015.13
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 11:50am ET $85.25 106 $9,036.50 $9,063.43 +$21.37
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $85.82 105 $9,011.62
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 1:30pm ET $85.79 105 $9,007.95 $9,059.76 $-3.67
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:10pm ET $85.25 106 $9,036.66
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:00pm ET $85.54 106 $9,067.77 $9,090.87 +$31.11
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET $85.24 106 $9,034.91
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 3:00pm ET $84.87 106 $8,996.22 $9,052.18 $-38.69
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $85.18 106 $9,028.55
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 12:05pm ET $85.18 106 $9,028.55 $9,052.18 $0.00
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $85.95 105 $9,024.75
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 11:10am ET $85.85 105 $9,014.26 $9,041.69 $-10.49
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET $86.36 104 $8,980.92
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 1:10pm ET $86.36 104 $8,980.92 $9,041.69 $0.00
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $87.16 103 $8,977.48
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 11:10am ET $87.52 103 $9,014.56 $9,078.77 +$37.08
(+0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,078.77
Net Profit/Loss: $-921.23
Total Return: -9.21%
Back to Grace Crossover