Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:33:37

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

25
+2.7%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 30.8 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,130.27
Current Value
$9,379.30
Period P&L
$249.04
Max Drawdown
-14.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
2 / 6
Best Trade
+3.88%
Worst Trade
-0.97%
Avg Trade Return
+0.35%
Avg Hold Time
16.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$146,424.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$249.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$249.04
Gross Return
+2.73%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.73%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,130.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:05pm ET $504.20 18 $9,075.60
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 1:20pm ET $503.80 18 $9,068.49 $9,123.15 $-7.11
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 1:35pm ET $503.98 18 $9,071.55
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 2:25pm ET $503.14 18 $9,056.52 $9,108.12 $-15.03
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:40am ET $504.75 18 $9,085.47
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:55pm ET $524.32 18 $9,437.67 $9,460.32 +$352.20
(+3.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $515.06 18 $9,271.08
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $510.08 18 $9,181.35 $9,370.59 $-89.73
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $525.89 17 $8,940.13
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $531.42 17 $9,034.15 $9,464.61 +$94.02
(+1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $535.79 17 $9,108.51
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $533.15 17 $9,063.55 $9,419.65 $-44.96
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 12:25pm ET $520.42 18 $9,367.56
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:20pm ET $520.28 18 $9,365.13 $9,417.22 $-2.43
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $573.00 16 $9,168.00
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 12:45pm ET $570.63 16 $9,130.08 $9,379.30 $-37.92
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,379.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-620.70
Total Return: -6.21%
Back to Grace Crossover