Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 02:25:59

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 36.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 36.7

30-Day Momentum

43
+4.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.0 Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,910.78
Current Value
$14,581.91
Period P&L
$671.16
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.33

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
4 / 6
Best Trade
+3.70%
Worst Trade
-1.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.49%
Avg Hold Time
19.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$280,385.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$671.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$671.16
Gross Return
+4.82%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $13,910.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $181.91 76 $13,825.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 11:10am ET $181.26 76 $13,775.76 $13,861.35 $-49.40
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 1:10pm ET $182.20 76 $13,847.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $187.48 76 $14,248.48 $14,262.63 +$401.28
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:35pm ET $185.81 76 $14,121.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $185.62 76 $14,107.12 $14,248.19 $-14.44
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:25pm ET $183.67 77 $14,142.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $183.10 77 $14,098.70 $14,204.30 $-43.89
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $187.05 75 $14,028.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:05am ET $186.78 75 $14,008.50 $14,184.05 $-20.25
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 1:05pm ET $188.39 75 $14,129.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET $188.20 75 $14,115.00 $14,169.80 $-14.25
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:50pm ET $188.07 75 $14,104.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 11:50am ET $185.99 75 $13,949.62 $14,014.55 $-155.25
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
21h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 11:40am ET $184.88 75 $13,866.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:15pm ET $185.13 75 $13,884.75 $14,033.30 +$18.75
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $184.95 75 $13,870.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET $185.40 75 $13,905.00 $14,067.42 +$34.12
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 11:25am ET $188.12 74 $13,920.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 11:55am ET $195.07 74 $14,435.18 $14,581.91 +$514.49
(+3.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,581.91
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,581.91
Total Return: +45.82%
Back to Grace Crossover