Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-26 17:47:16

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
13
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.6
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.76
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
⛈️ 3.6
Severe
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 26, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.8/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
5.0/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 36.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 36.5

30-Day Momentum

33
+4.1%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 39.3 Conf: 0.84×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-26
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,847.35
Current Value
$14,367.84
Period P&L
$520.52
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
4 / 6
Best Trade
+3.38%
Worst Trade
-1.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.39%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$284,831.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$520.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$520.52
Gross Return
+3.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $13,847.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $183.89 75 $13,791.75
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:50am ET $183.82 75 $13,786.13 $13,841.70 $-5.62
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 2:35pm ET $190.60 72 $13,723.20
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 1:25pm ET $196.97 72 $14,181.84 $14,300.34 +$458.64
(+3.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:30am ET $192.51 74 $14,245.74
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $193.39 74 $14,310.86 $14,365.46 +$65.12
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $185.03 77 $14,247.31
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $183.71 77 $14,145.67 $14,263.82 $-101.64
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 2:00pm ET $178.82 79 $14,126.78
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 2:30pm ET $177.89 79 $14,053.31 $14,190.35 $-73.47
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
30m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 3:25pm ET $185.15 76 $14,071.40
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 3:05pm ET $191.40 76 $14,546.78 $14,665.73 +$475.38
(+3.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $188.89 77 $14,544.53
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $188.10 77 $14,483.70 $14,604.90 $-60.83
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 3:20pm ET $191.29 76 $14,538.04
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:45am ET $191.92 76 $14,585.93 $14,652.79 +$47.89
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 10:45am ET $185.01 79 $14,616.18
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 11:15am ET $182.04 79 $14,381.16 $14,417.76 $-235.03
(-1.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:45am ET $182.70 78 $14,250.60
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:00pm ET $182.06 78 $14,200.68 $14,367.84 $-49.92
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,367.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,367.84
Total Return: +43.68%
Back to Grace Crossover