ARKK Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 31 trades in period
+24.79%
Last 3 Months Return
$15,032.67
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$12,046.18
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
13.4/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
37.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 37.0
30-Day Momentum
36
+4.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.4
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,046.18
Current Value
$15,032.67
Period P&L
$2,986.45
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.40
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
14 /
17
Best Trade
+7.03%
Worst Trade
-1.98%
Avg Trade Return
+0.74%
Avg Hold Time
18.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$849,618.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,986.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,986.45
Gross Return
+24.79%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.79%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $12,046.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 2:30pm ET | $77.50 | 155 | $12,012.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $76.81 | 155 | $11,905.55 | $11,939.27 |
$-106.95 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $78.15 | 152 | $11,878.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $80.27 | 152 | $12,201.04 | $12,261.51 |
+$322.24 (+2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $82.55 | 148 | $12,217.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $82.41 | 148 | $12,196.68 | $12,240.61 |
$-20.90 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $83.66 | 146 | $12,214.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:35pm ET | $83.40 | 146 | $12,176.40 | $12,202.65 |
$-37.96 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $79.44 | 153 | $12,154.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $81.59 | 153 | $12,483.27 | $12,531.60 |
+$328.95 (+2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.94 | 158 | $12,472.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $79.44 | 158 | $12,551.52 | $12,610.60 |
+$79.00 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 3:30pm ET | $79.56 | 158 | $12,569.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.81 | 158 | $12,451.98 | $12,492.89 |
$-117.71 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $75.61 | 165 | $12,475.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $75.52 | 165 | $12,460.80 | $12,478.04 |
$-14.85 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.26 | 163 | $12,430.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $77.68 | 163 | $12,661.84 | $12,709.50 |
+$231.46 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $74.12 | 171 | $12,674.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:50pm ET | $73.80 | 171 | $12,619.80 | $12,654.78 |
$-54.72 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $72.64 | 174 | $12,638.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $72.28 | 174 | $12,576.72 | $12,593.01 |
$-61.77 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $72.19 | 174 | $12,561.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $72.05 | 174 | $12,536.70 | $12,568.65 |
$-24.36 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $72.25 | 173 | $12,499.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $72.30 | 173 | $12,507.90 | $12,577.30 |
+$8.65 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $71.58 | 175 | $12,526.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.61 | 175 | $13,406.75 | $13,457.55 |
+$880.25 (+7.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $76.32 | 176 | $13,432.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 11:45am ET | $76.03 | 176 | $13,380.40 | $13,405.61 |
$-51.94 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 1:35pm ET | $78.63 | 170 | $13,367.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $80.04 | 170 | $13,606.80 | $13,645.31 |
+$239.70 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $80.92 | 168 | $13,594.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 11:15am ET | $81.91 | 168 | $13,760.88 | $13,811.63 |
+$166.32 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $81.29 | 169 | $13,738.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $81.11 | 169 | $13,707.59 | $13,781.21 |
$-30.42 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 12:55pm ET | $79.77 | 172 | $13,720.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 1:25pm ET | $82.48 | 172 | $14,186.56 | $14,247.33 |
+$466.12 (+3.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 3:20pm ET | $83.19 | 171 | $14,225.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $86.03 | 171 | $14,711.13 | $14,732.97 |
+$485.64 (+3.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $84.73 | 173 | $14,658.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 2:30pm ET | $86.57 | 173 | $14,976.61 | $15,051.29 |
+$318.32 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.33 | 174 | $15,021.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 1:55pm ET | $87.46 | 174 | $15,218.04 | $15,247.56 |
+$196.27 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 3:30pm ET | $84.61 | 180 | $15,229.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.75 | 180 | $15,075.90 | $15,093.66 |
$-153.90 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 3:35pm ET | $83.38 | 181 | $15,091.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.84 | 181 | $15,537.04 | $15,538.92 |
+$445.26 (+3.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $86.09 | 180 | $15,496.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET | $86.33 | 180 | $15,539.40 | $15,582.12 |
+$43.20 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.00 | 185 | $15,540.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 12:15pm ET | $83.96 | 185 | $15,532.60 | $15,574.72 |
$-7.40 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 3:25pm ET | $84.99 | 183 | $15,553.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.90 | 183 | $15,354.61 | $15,376.17 |
$-198.55 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.95 | 183 | $15,362.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $83.82 | 183 | $15,339.06 | $15,352.38 |
$-23.79 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 2:00pm ET | $86.92 | 176 | $15,297.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $86.84 | 176 | $15,283.84 | $15,338.30 |
$-14.08 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 1:45pm ET | $90.72 | 169 | $15,331.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $90.71 | 169 | $15,329.99 | $15,336.61 |
$-1.69 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $91.79 | 167 | $15,328.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:10am ET | $89.97 | 167 | $15,024.99 | $15,032.67 |
$-303.94 (-2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,032.67
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,032.67
Total Return:
+50.33%