Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:32:39

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
11.9/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 26.0/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 25.9

30-Day Momentum

44
+5.5%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.5 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+18 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,086.44
Current Value
$12,593.01
Period P&L
$1,506.53
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
12 / 17
Best Trade
+5.81%
Worst Trade
-4.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.46%
Avg Hold Time
22.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$691,881.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,506.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,506.53
Gross Return
+13.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $11,086.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $76.57 144 $11,026.08
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET $76.51 144 $11,017.44 $11,077.84 $-8.64
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 1:35pm ET $73.30 151 $11,068.30
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $73.06 151 $11,032.06 $11,041.60 $-36.24
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
30m held
3 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $76.07 145 $11,030.15
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $77.78 145 $11,278.10 $11,289.55 +$247.95
(+2.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 3:00pm ET $76.73 147 $11,278.59
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:20am ET $78.97 147 $11,608.59 $11,619.55 +$330.00
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held
5 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 10:20am ET $77.89 149 $11,605.60
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $80.18 149 $11,946.82 $11,960.77 +$341.22
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.2d held
6 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:35am ET $77.76 153 $11,897.28
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $78.24 153 $11,970.72 $12,034.21 +$73.44
(+0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
7 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $78.57 153 $12,021.97
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:45am ET $75.39 153 $11,534.67 $11,546.91 $-487.30
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
8 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:00am ET $75.73 152 $11,510.96
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $73.60 152 $11,187.20 $11,223.15 $-323.76
(-2.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.6h held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $75.76 148 $11,212.48
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $75.25 148 $11,136.26 $11,146.93 $-76.22
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
10 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 1:00pm ET $77.36 144 $11,139.12
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $81.85 144 $11,786.40 $11,794.21 +$647.28
(+5.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $79.96 147 $11,754.12
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 1:40pm ET $79.85 147 $11,737.22 $11,777.31 $-16.90
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:40pm ET $78.10 150 $11,714.25
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:10pm ET $78.04 150 $11,705.25 $11,768.31 $-9.00
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:45pm ET $74.51 157 $11,698.85
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $75.84 157 $11,906.88 $11,976.33 +$208.02
(+1.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 1:35pm ET $73.97 161 $11,909.17
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 10:55am ET $74.94 161 $12,066.14 $12,133.30 +$156.97
(+1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $74.21 163 $12,096.23
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:50am ET $74.98 163 $12,221.71 $12,258.78 +$125.48
(+1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:50pm ET $79.58 154 $12,255.32
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $79.45 154 $12,235.30 $12,238.76 $-20.02
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET $80.12 152 $12,178.24
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:30am ET $79.20 152 $12,038.40 $12,098.92 $-139.84
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $77.75 155 $12,052.02
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 1:50pm ET $77.42 155 $11,999.33 $12,046.22 $-52.70
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 2:30pm ET $77.50 155 $12,012.50
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $76.81 155 $11,905.55 $11,939.27 $-106.95
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.15 152 $11,878.80
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $80.27 152 $12,201.04 $12,261.51 +$322.24
(+2.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.7d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $82.55 148 $12,217.58
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $82.41 148 $12,196.68 $12,240.61 $-20.90
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
5m held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 3:20pm ET $83.66 146 $12,214.36
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:35pm ET $83.40 146 $12,176.40 $12,202.65 $-37.96
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 12:45pm ET $79.44 153 $12,154.32
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:10pm ET $81.59 153 $12,483.27 $12,531.60 +$328.95
(+2.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $78.94 158 $12,472.52
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $79.44 158 $12,551.52 $12,610.60 +$79.00
(+0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 3:30pm ET $79.56 158 $12,569.69
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $78.81 158 $12,451.98 $12,492.89 $-117.71
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
18h held
26 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 12:10pm ET $75.61 165 $12,475.65
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $75.52 165 $12,460.80 $12,478.04 $-14.85
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held
27 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET $76.26 163 $12,430.38
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $77.68 163 $12,661.84 $12,709.50 +$231.46
(+1.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held
28 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $74.12 171 $12,674.52
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 12:50pm ET $73.80 171 $12,619.80 $12,654.78 $-54.72
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
29 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $72.64 174 $12,638.49
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $72.28 174 $12,576.72 $12,593.01 $-61.77
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,593.01
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,593.01
Total Return: +25.93%
Back to Grace Crossover