ARM Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 33 trades in period
-32.07%
Last 3 Months Return
$4,250.25
Current Value
21%
Win Rate
$6,256.74
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality
3.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.3
30-Day Momentum
51
+9.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 60.7
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+48 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,256.74
Current Value
$4,250.25
Period P&L
$-2,006.64
Max Drawdown
-53.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.39
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
7 /
26
Best Trade
+8.37%
Worst Trade
-7.71%
Avg Trade Return
-1.16%
Avg Hold Time
12.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$285,094.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,006.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,006.64
Gross Return
-32.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.07%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $6,256.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.53 | 16 | $5,960.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $354.21 | 16 | $5,667.44 | $5,963.84 |
$-293.04 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 3:35pm ET | $332.14 | 17 | $5,646.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $318.79 | 17 | $5,419.43 | $5,736.81 |
$-227.03 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 11:45am ET | $342.92 | 16 | $5,486.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 1:05pm ET | $340.74 | 16 | $5,451.92 | $5,701.93 |
$-34.88 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $324.88 | 17 | $5,522.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.93 | 17 | $5,200.81 | $5,379.78 |
$-322.15 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $304.63 | 17 | $5,178.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $291.85 | 17 | $4,961.45 | $5,162.61 |
$-217.17 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $333.91 | 15 | $5,008.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $319.75 | 15 | $4,796.25 | $4,950.21 |
$-212.40 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $306.59 | 16 | $4,905.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $282.95 | 16 | $4,527.20 | $4,571.97 |
$-378.24 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $272.23 | 16 | $4,355.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.38 | 16 | $4,182.00 | $4,398.37 |
$-173.60 (-4.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $260.79 | 16 | $4,172.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $267.75 | 16 | $4,284.00 | $4,509.73 |
+$111.36 (+2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.53 | 15 | $4,282.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:30pm ET | $290.75 | 15 | $4,361.25 | $4,588.03 |
+$78.30 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $285.57 | 16 | $4,569.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $278.93 | 16 | $4,462.88 | $4,481.79 |
$-106.24 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $264.94 | 16 | $4,239.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $261.67 | 16 | $4,186.64 | $4,429.39 |
$-52.40 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 12:50pm ET | $248.73 | 17 | $4,228.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $245.30 | 17 | $4,170.10 | $4,371.08 |
$-58.31 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $250.80 | 17 | $4,263.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $238.31 | 17 | $4,051.27 | $4,158.75 |
$-212.33 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 1:40pm ET | $247.26 | 16 | $3,956.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 1:50pm ET | $245.09 | 16 | $3,921.44 | $4,124.03 |
$-34.72 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $277.00 | 14 | $3,878.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 1:25pm ET | $276.95 | 14 | $3,877.30 | $4,123.33 |
$-0.70 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $289.16 | 14 | $4,048.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $287.79 | 14 | $4,028.99 | $4,104.08 |
$-19.25 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $272.75 | 15 | $4,091.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $270.12 | 15 | $4,051.80 | $4,064.63 |
$-39.45 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $269.05 | 15 | $4,035.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 3:45pm ET | $272.15 | 15 | $4,082.25 | $4,111.13 |
+$46.50 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $281.14 | 14 | $3,935.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $279.09 | 14 | $3,907.26 | $4,082.50 |
$-28.63 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:15pm ET | $252.06 | 16 | $4,032.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $249.35 | 16 | $3,989.60 | $4,039.14 |
$-43.36 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $247.01 | 16 | $3,952.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $247.48 | 16 | $3,959.68 | $4,046.66 |
+$7.52 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $238.97 | 16 | $3,823.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $237.85 | 16 | $3,805.60 | $4,028.74 |
$-17.92 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $242.42 | 16 | $3,878.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $240.12 | 16 | $3,841.92 | $3,991.94 |
$-36.80 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $251.34 | 15 | $3,770.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $250.42 | 15 | $3,756.30 | $3,978.14 |
$-13.80 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $242.79 | 16 | $3,884.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $240.46 | 16 | $3,847.36 | $3,940.86 |
$-37.28 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 11:45am ET | $235.90 | 16 | $3,774.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET | $234.02 | 16 | $3,744.32 | $3,910.78 |
$-30.08 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 11:00am ET | $233.57 | 16 | $3,737.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:35pm ET | $241.70 | 16 | $3,867.20 | $4,040.86 |
+$130.08 (+3.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $251.39 | 16 | $4,022.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $272.42 | 16 | $4,358.72 | $4,377.34 |
+$336.48 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:00pm ET | $256.57 | 17 | $4,361.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $254.70 | 17 | $4,329.82 | $4,345.47 |
$-31.88 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $243.13 | 17 | $4,133.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 2:15pm ET | $242.07 | 17 | $4,115.19 | $4,327.49 |
$-17.98 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 3:20pm ET | $243.40 | 17 | $4,137.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $247.46 | 17 | $4,206.82 | $4,396.50 |
+$69.01 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $328.90 | 13 | $4,275.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.65 | 13 | $4,129.51 | $4,250.25 |
$-146.25 (-3.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,250.25
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,749.75
Total Return:
-57.50%