Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:10:11

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

7
-4.0%
30d Return
22%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6 Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,519.34
Current Value
$9,305.10
Period P&L
$-214.26
Max Drawdown
-15.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
10 / 16
Best Trade
+2.28%
Worst Trade
-4.25%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
22h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$478,533.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-214.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-214.26
Gross Return
-2.25%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,519.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 2:35pm ET $102.50 92 $9,430.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $98.14 92 $9,028.88 $9,118.24 $-401.12
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 12:25pm ET $99.04 92 $9,112.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $97.93 92 $9,009.56 $9,015.66 $-102.58
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
6.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 12:00pm ET $97.00 92 $8,924.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $97.21 92 $8,943.78 $9,035.44 +$19.78
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $96.05 94 $9,028.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $95.91 94 $9,015.54 $9,022.28 $-13.16
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:45am ET $96.45 93 $8,969.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 1:25pm ET $97.03 93 $9,023.33 $9,075.76 +$53.48
(+0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 11:15am ET $96.83 93 $9,005.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $96.71 93 $8,994.49 $9,065.06 $-10.70
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 1:50pm ET $96.46 93 $8,970.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:35pm ET $96.33 93 $8,958.68 $9,052.96 $-12.10
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:40pm ET $96.74 93 $8,996.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET $98.81 93 $9,189.33 $9,245.47 +$192.51
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 12:05pm ET $96.04 96 $9,220.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:35pm ET $96.15 96 $9,230.88 $9,256.03 +$10.56
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $100.78 91 $9,170.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 11:55am ET $100.08 91 $9,107.73 $9,193.24 $-62.79
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 1:15pm ET $104.76 87 $9,114.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 2:10pm ET $104.71 87 $9,109.77 $9,188.89 $-4.35
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $103.15 89 $9,180.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $103.04 89 $9,170.56 $9,179.10 $-9.79
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 10:40am ET $103.04 89 $9,170.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 12:10pm ET $102.94 89 $9,161.66 $9,170.20 $-8.90
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 12:55pm ET $104.11 88 $9,162.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 12:35pm ET $106.31 88 $9,355.28 $9,363.36 +$193.16
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.7h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:50am ET $104.22 89 $9,275.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 11:45am ET $104.54 89 $9,304.07 $9,391.85 +$28.49
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:35pm ET $106.15 88 $9,341.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET $107.15 88 $9,429.61 $9,479.82 +$87.97
(+0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:30pm ET $107.38 88 $9,449.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 12:25pm ET $109.83 88 $9,665.04 $9,695.33 +$215.51
(+2.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $111.39 87 $9,691.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:20pm ET $107.55 87 $9,356.85 $9,361.16 $-334.17
(-3.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:10pm ET $107.57 87 $9,358.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $107.49 87 $9,351.63 $9,354.63 $-6.53
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:15pm ET $107.68 86 $9,260.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 2:55pm ET $107.56 86 $9,250.16 $9,344.31 $-10.32
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $104.59 89 $9,308.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $103.74 89 $9,232.86 $9,269.01 $-75.30
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.6h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:20am ET $104.49 88 $9,195.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $104.86 88 $9,227.24 $9,301.13 +$32.12
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:40pm ET $106.77 87 $9,288.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $106.49 87 $9,264.63 $9,276.77 $-24.36
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 11:25am ET $107.66 86 $9,258.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $107.36 86 $9,232.96 $9,250.97 $-25.80
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:15pm ET $102.93 89 $9,160.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:15pm ET $104.14 89 $9,268.46 $9,358.66 +$107.69
(+1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:10pm ET $103.67 90 $9,330.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET $103.07 90 $9,276.75 $9,305.10 $-53.56
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,305.10
Net Profit/Loss: $-694.90
Total Return: -6.95%
Back to Grace Crossover