Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:15:27

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 4.5

30-Day Momentum

25
+2.1%
30d Return
27%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.6 Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,047.86
Current Value
$8,053.77
Period P&L
$5.88
Max Drawdown
-12.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
9 / 20
Best Trade
+3.75%
Worst Trade
-4.03%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
19.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$453,977.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$5.88
Gross Return
+0.07%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $8,047.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 3:45pm ET $264.11 30 $7,923.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $261.21 30 $7,836.30 $8,087.49 $-86.85
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $266.23 30 $7,987.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 11:05am ET $262.37 30 $7,871.10 $7,971.54 $-115.95
(-1.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET $288.70 27 $7,794.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 1:50pm ET $298.24 27 $8,052.61 $8,229.39 +$257.85
(+3.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 12:30pm ET $303.05 27 $8,182.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 3:05pm ET $301.86 27 $8,150.22 $8,197.26 $-32.13
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 2:30pm ET $213.71 38 $8,120.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET $205.09 38 $7,793.42 $7,869.70 $-327.56
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:50pm ET $212.13 37 $7,848.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $209.26 37 $7,742.62 $7,763.51 $-106.19
(-1.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 12:25pm ET $211.17 36 $7,602.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $210.91 36 $7,592.94 $7,754.33 $-9.18
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:25am ET $205.48 37 $7,602.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 12:45pm ET $205.56 37 $7,605.72 $7,757.29 +$2.96
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $217.75 35 $7,621.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 11:40am ET $216.82 35 $7,588.87 $7,724.91 $-32.38
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:05am ET $229.34 33 $7,568.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 12:30pm ET $221.94 33 $7,324.02 $7,480.71 $-244.20
(-3.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:50am ET $228.20 32 $7,302.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 2:35pm ET $236.77 32 $7,576.58 $7,754.89 +$274.18
(+3.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 3:10pm ET $233.06 33 $7,690.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 2:15pm ET $235.63 33 $7,775.79 $7,839.70 +$84.81
(+1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 3:10pm ET $236.74 33 $7,812.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $236.18 33 $7,793.94 $7,821.05 $-18.65
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 12:10pm ET $234.32 33 $7,732.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 1:05pm ET $233.84 33 $7,716.72 $7,805.21 $-15.84
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 1:10pm ET $235.43 33 $7,769.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 3:20pm ET $234.81 33 $7,748.73 $7,784.91 $-20.30
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET $234.10 33 $7,725.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:40pm ET $236.62 33 $7,808.46 $7,868.07 +$83.16
(+1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET $235.26 33 $7,763.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 12:50pm ET $236.54 33 $7,805.75 $7,910.08 +$42.01
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 2:25pm ET $232.85 33 $7,684.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 12:20pm ET $232.32 33 $7,666.72 $7,892.59 $-17.49
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.9h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 2:45pm ET $230.18 34 $7,826.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $238.75 34 $8,117.50 $8,183.80 +$291.21
(+3.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.2h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 2:10pm ET $236.09 34 $8,026.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 11:30am ET $234.07 34 $7,958.55 $8,115.46 $-68.34
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 1:40pm ET $231.38 35 $8,098.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 1:50pm ET $230.88 35 $8,080.97 $8,098.31 $-17.15
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 3:05pm ET $232.16 34 $7,893.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:30pm ET $231.60 34 $7,874.42 $8,079.29 $-19.02
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:05am ET $234.15 34 $7,961.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 10:55am ET $233.37 34 $7,934.58 $8,052.60 $-26.69
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 11:20am ET $232.61 34 $7,908.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:40am ET $232.18 34 $7,893.95 $8,037.81 $-14.79
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $232.05 34 $7,889.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $235.52 34 $8,007.85 $8,155.79 +$117.98
(+1.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 11:15am ET $249.04 32 $7,969.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:25am ET $248.33 32 $7,946.56 $8,133.07 $-22.72
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $240.41 33 $7,933.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:30am ET $238.30 33 $7,864.06 $8,063.60 $-69.47
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:45pm ET $230.40 34 $7,833.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 1:05pm ET $230.78 34 $7,846.52 $8,076.52 +$12.92
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $227.88 35 $7,975.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 2:00pm ET $227.23 35 $7,953.05 $8,053.77 $-22.75
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,053.77
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,946.23
Total Return: -19.46%
Back to Grace Crossover