LLY Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 34 trades in period
+2.86%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,795.29
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$14,384.14
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.4/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
33.3/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 33.2
30-Day Momentum
9
-2.4%
30d Return
18%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$14,384.14
Current Value
$14,795.29
Period P&L
$411.13
Max Drawdown
-13.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
12 /
22
Best Trade
+8.43%
Worst Trade
-4.58%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
13.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$972,555.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$411.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$411.13
Gross Return
+2.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,384.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1,103.42 | 12 | $13,241.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,110.56 | 12 | $13,326.66 | $14,164.62 |
+$85.62 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1,128.71 | 12 | $13,544.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,223.84 | 12 | $14,686.08 | $15,306.18 |
+$1,141.56 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,209.24 | 12 | $14,510.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,210.74 | 12 | $14,528.88 | $15,324.18 |
+$18.00 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1,203.77 | 12 | $14,445.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $1,205.40 | 12 | $14,464.80 | $15,343.74 |
+$19.56 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,230.48 | 12 | $14,765.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 12:50pm ET | $1,226.50 | 12 | $14,718.00 | $15,295.98 |
$-47.76 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $1,210.85 | 12 | $14,530.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,208.96 | 12 | $14,507.58 | $15,273.30 |
$-22.68 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,193.40 | 12 | $14,320.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,187.52 | 12 | $14,250.24 | $15,202.74 |
$-70.56 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,146.23 | 13 | $14,901.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1,176.22 | 13 | $15,290.92 | $15,592.61 |
+$389.87 (+2.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:15pm ET | $1,177.08 | 13 | $15,302.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,175.30 | 13 | $15,278.84 | $15,569.41 |
$-23.20 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,160.49 | 13 | $15,086.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 12:50pm ET | $1,159.80 | 13 | $15,077.40 | $15,560.38 |
$-9.03 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,163.34 | 13 | $15,123.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,180.51 | 13 | $15,346.63 | $15,783.53 |
+$223.15 (+1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,200.05 | 13 | $15,600.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $1,198.61 | 13 | $15,581.93 | $15,764.81 |
$-18.72 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 1:00pm ET | $1,220.31 | 12 | $14,643.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:45pm ET | $1,219.21 | 12 | $14,630.52 | $15,751.67 |
$-13.14 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,165.39 | 13 | $15,150.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,112.01 | 13 | $14,456.07 | $15,057.73 |
$-693.94 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,177.99 | 12 | $14,135.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,145.44 | 12 | $13,745.34 | $14,667.19 |
$-390.54 (-2.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,181.17 | 12 | $14,174.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,182.49 | 12 | $14,189.88 | $14,683.03 |
+$15.84 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,222.57 | 12 | $14,670.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 12:40pm ET | $1,223.09 | 12 | $14,677.08 | $14,689.27 |
+$6.24 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,220.79 | 12 | $14,649.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $1,219.80 | 12 | $14,637.60 | $14,677.39 |
$-11.88 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $1,188.21 | 12 | $14,258.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,182.05 | 12 | $14,184.58 | $14,603.45 |
$-73.94 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1,193.23 | 12 | $14,318.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 1:20pm ET | $1,214.40 | 12 | $14,572.74 | $14,857.37 |
+$253.92 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.7h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,273.39 | 11 | $14,007.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,266.05 | 11 | $13,926.55 | $14,776.63 |
$-80.74 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,244.46 | 11 | $13,689.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,242.63 | 11 | $13,668.88 | $14,756.45 |
$-20.18 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $1,198.61 | 12 | $14,383.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $1,193.49 | 12 | $14,321.88 | $14,694.97 |
$-61.48 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,158.08 | 12 | $13,896.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1,156.79 | 12 | $13,881.48 | $14,679.49 |
$-15.48 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 2:25pm ET | $1,165.37 | 12 | $13,984.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,162.32 | 12 | $13,947.90 | $14,642.95 |
$-36.54 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,147.26 | 12 | $13,767.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 12:40pm ET | $1,145.52 | 12 | $13,746.24 | $14,622.07 |
$-20.88 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $1,127.15 | 12 | $13,525.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $1,126.24 | 12 | $13,514.93 | $14,611.20 |
$-10.87 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,124.69 | 12 | $13,496.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,124.67 | 12 | $13,495.98 | $14,610.84 |
$-0.36 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $1,121.69 | 13 | $14,582.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,122.01 | 13 | $14,586.13 | $14,614.94 |
+$4.10 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,156.89 | 12 | $13,882.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,141.71 | 12 | $13,700.58 | $14,432.89 |
$-182.05 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,149.91 | 12 | $13,798.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:05pm ET | $1,144.43 | 12 | $13,733.16 | $14,367.13 |
$-65.76 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:45pm ET | $1,145.30 | 12 | $13,743.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,144.00 | 12 | $13,728.00 | $14,351.59 |
$-15.54 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,162.13 | 12 | $13,945.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,165.94 | 12 | $13,991.22 | $14,397.25 |
+$45.66 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $1,153.59 | 12 | $13,843.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,186.76 | 12 | $14,241.12 | $14,795.29 |
+$398.04 (+2.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,795.29
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,795.29
Total Return:
+47.95%