MARA Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 32 trades in period
-23.22%
Last 3 Months Return
$16,393.62
Current Value
22%
Win Rate
$21,350.98
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
27.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 27.0
30-Day Momentum
25
+6.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.6
Conf: 0.84×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$21,350.98
Current Value
$16,393.62
Period P&L
$-4,957.35
Max Drawdown
-35.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
7 /
25
Best Trade
+9.40%
Worst Trade
-5.13%
Avg Trade Return
-0.75%
Avg Hold Time
8.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,118,507.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,957.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,957.35
Gross Return
-23.22%
Net Return (after fees)
-23.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $21,350.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $13.68 | 1,560 | $21,340.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $13.44 | 1,560 | $20,958.60 | $20,968.77 |
$-382.20 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.61 | 1,435 | $20,965.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $13.94 | 1,435 | $20,002.47 | $20,005.89 |
$-962.88 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 1:00pm ET | $13.69 | 1,461 | $20,000.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.49 | 1,461 | $19,705.53 | $19,710.48 |
$-295.41 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.94 | 1,413 | $19,704.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $13.44 | 1,413 | $18,992.56 | $18,998.75 |
$-711.73 (-3.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $12.22 | 1,554 | $18,989.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.73 | 1,554 | $18,228.42 | $18,237.29 |
$-761.46 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.65 | 1,336 | $18,236.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $13.01 | 1,336 | $17,374.68 | $17,375.57 |
$-861.72 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $12.10 | 1,436 | $17,375.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $12.02 | 1,436 | $17,260.86 | $17,260.98 |
$-114.59 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $12.16 | 1,419 | $17,255.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.93 | 1,419 | $16,921.58 | $16,927.52 |
$-333.46 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $11.55 | 1,465 | $16,920.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:35pm ET | $11.47 | 1,465 | $16,796.23 | $16,802.99 |
$-124.53 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.13 | 1,509 | $16,795.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.14 | 1,509 | $18,311.72 | $18,319.54 |
+$1,516.55 (+9.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 12:35pm ET | $12.60 | 1,454 | $18,313.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $12.51 | 1,454 | $18,182.27 | $18,188.68 |
$-130.86 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $11.19 | 1,624 | $18,180.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $11.26 | 1,624 | $18,285.92 | $18,293.92 |
+$105.24 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 1:35pm ET | $10.53 | 1,736 | $18,288.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.38 | 1,736 | $18,019.68 | $18,024.84 |
$-269.08 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.03 | 1,497 | $18,016.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $11.82 | 1,497 | $17,694.54 | $17,702.98 |
$-321.86 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.64 | 1,520 | $17,692.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 12:45pm ET | $11.65 | 1,520 | $17,715.60 | $17,725.78 |
+$22.80 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $11.81 | 1,500 | $17,722.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $11.68 | 1,500 | $17,516.55 | $17,519.83 |
$-205.95 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $11.02 | 1,590 | $17,513.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.45 | 1,590 | $16,615.50 | $16,621.48 |
$-898.35 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.16 | 1,636 | $16,620.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.64 | 1,636 | $15,776.93 | $15,778.29 |
$-843.19 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 3:05pm ET | $9.27 | 1,702 | $15,769.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 12:50pm ET | $9.06 | 1,702 | $15,428.63 | $15,437.89 |
$-340.40 (-2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $9.64 | 1,601 | $15,430.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $9.44 | 1,601 | $15,113.44 | $15,120.41 |
$-317.48 (-2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.02 | 1,677 | $15,118.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $9.76 | 1,677 | $16,367.52 | $16,369.77 |
+$1,249.36 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 12:20pm ET | $11.38 | 1,438 | $16,364.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $11.21 | 1,438 | $16,119.98 | $16,125.31 |
$-244.46 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.60 | 1,389 | $16,119.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $11.13 | 1,389 | $15,462.21 | $15,468.17 |
$-657.14 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 2:10pm ET | $11.19 | 1,381 | $15,460.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $12.13 | 1,381 | $16,751.67 | $16,759.54 |
+$1,291.37 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 11:45am ET | $10.48 | 1,598 | $16,750.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.48 | 1,598 | $16,747.04 | $16,756.18 |
$-3.36 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $10.22 | 1,640 | $16,752.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $11.18 | 1,640 | $18,327.00 | $18,330.58 |
+$1,574.40 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $11.35 | 1,614 | $18,326.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 3:35pm ET | $11.29 | 1,614 | $18,222.22 | $18,225.83 |
$-104.75 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.09 | 1,507 | $18,219.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.57 | 1,507 | $17,435.99 | $17,442.19 |
$-783.64 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 11:30am ET | $11.41 | 1,528 | $17,434.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:10pm ET | $11.28 | 1,528 | $17,243.48 | $17,251.19 |
$-191.00 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.47 | 1,504 | $17,250.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $10.93 | 1,504 | $16,438.72 | $16,439.03 |
$-812.16 (-4.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $13.47 | 1,220 | $16,427.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $13.42 | 1,220 | $16,375.82 | $16,387.55 |
$-51.48 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $13.50 | 1,213 | $16,375.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $13.51 | 1,213 | $16,381.57 | $16,393.62 |
+$6.07 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,393.62
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,393.62
Total Return:
+63.94%