MS Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 31 trades in period
-15.11%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,838.45
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$11,590.17
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 4.5
30-Day Momentum
5
-5.0%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8
Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,590.17
Current Value
$9,838.45
Period P&L
$-1,751.64
Max Drawdown
-12.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.40
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
10 /
21
Best Trade
+3.55%
Worst Trade
-4.00%
Avg Trade Return
-0.52%
Avg Hold Time
16.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$662,581.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,751.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,751.64
Gross Return
-15.11%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.11%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $11,590.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $221.34 | 52 | $11,509.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:35pm ET | $220.73 | 52 | $11,477.96 | $11,558.13 |
$-31.96 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $213.74 | 54 | $11,541.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 2:40pm ET | $213.74 | 54 | $11,542.23 | $11,558.40 |
+$0.27 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $209.68 | 55 | $11,532.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $209.26 | 55 | $11,509.57 | $11,535.30 |
$-23.10 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 3:40pm ET | $211.85 | 54 | $11,440.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $213.19 | 54 | $11,512.26 | $11,607.39 |
+$72.09 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $220.88 | 52 | $11,485.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:35am ET | $220.94 | 52 | $11,488.88 | $11,610.51 |
+$3.12 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $218.29 | 53 | $11,569.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:35pm ET | $218.15 | 53 | $11,561.69 | $11,603.09 |
$-7.42 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $224.32 | 51 | $11,440.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $222.52 | 51 | $11,348.52 | $11,511.29 |
$-91.80 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 2:55pm ET | $227.98 | 50 | $11,399.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.00 | 50 | $11,100.00 | $11,212.29 |
$-299.00 (-2.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 3:40pm ET | $217.30 | 51 | $11,082.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $210.22 | 51 | $10,721.22 | $10,851.21 |
$-361.08 (-3.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $216.73 | 50 | $10,836.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $215.60 | 50 | $10,780.25 | $10,795.21 |
$-56.00 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $218.82 | 49 | $10,722.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.99 | 49 | $10,583.75 | $10,656.78 |
$-138.43 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $214.26 | 49 | $10,498.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $214.71 | 49 | $10,520.79 | $10,679.08 |
+$22.30 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $213.25 | 50 | $10,662.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $210.01 | 50 | $10,500.75 | $10,517.33 |
$-161.75 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 1:05pm ET | $205.78 | 51 | $10,494.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:20pm ET | $204.96 | 51 | $10,452.96 | $10,475.64 |
$-41.69 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $210.92 | 49 | $10,335.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 12:25pm ET | $210.92 | 49 | $10,335.08 | $10,475.64 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 2:00pm ET | $210.13 | 49 | $10,296.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $217.58 | 49 | $10,661.42 | $10,840.69 |
+$365.05 (+3.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $219.15 | 49 | $10,738.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $216.33 | 49 | $10,600.17 | $10,702.51 |
$-138.18 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $215.48 | 49 | $10,558.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $215.17 | 49 | $10,543.33 | $10,687.32 |
$-15.19 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.20 | 48 | $10,473.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:55am ET | $218.32 | 48 | $10,479.42 | $10,693.14 |
+$5.82 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 2:30pm ET | $218.91 | 48 | $10,507.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $218.69 | 48 | $10,497.12 | $10,682.34 |
$-10.80 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $219.25 | 48 | $10,524.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 3:35pm ET | $218.98 | 48 | $10,511.04 | $10,669.38 |
$-12.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 12:20pm ET | $215.94 | 49 | $10,581.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 1:30pm ET | $211.04 | 49 | $10,340.72 | $10,429.04 |
$-240.34 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $214.36 | 48 | $10,289.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $214.30 | 48 | $10,286.40 | $10,426.14 |
$-2.90 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $213.77 | 48 | $10,261.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $214.01 | 48 | $10,272.48 | $10,437.61 |
+$11.47 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 3:30pm ET | $214.77 | 48 | $10,308.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:50pm ET | $213.37 | 48 | $10,241.76 | $10,370.53 |
$-67.08 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $212.35 | 48 | $10,192.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $213.26 | 48 | $10,236.48 | $10,414.21 |
+$43.68 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:50am ET | $216.29 | 48 | $10,381.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 3:20pm ET | $217.04 | 48 | $10,417.68 | $10,449.97 |
+$35.76 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $216.35 | 48 | $10,384.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $215.58 | 48 | $10,348.01 | $10,413.18 |
$-36.79 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.70 | 48 | $10,353.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 1:40pm ET | $207.07 | 48 | $9,939.36 | $9,998.94 |
$-414.24 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $202.36 | 49 | $9,915.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:15pm ET | $200.35 | 49 | $9,817.15 | $9,900.45 |
$-98.49 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $196.97 | 50 | $9,848.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $195.73 | 50 | $9,786.50 | $9,838.45 |
$-62.00 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,838.45
Net Profit/Loss:
$-161.55
Total Return:
-1.62%