Compendium › Grace Crossover › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Grace Crossover's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-28 to present • 25 trades in period

+10.82%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,364.79
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$9,352.44
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-28 06:28:39

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
18
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.9
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.40%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.78
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.5
Unsettled
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 27, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
5.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 11.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 11.2

30-Day Momentum

18
+2.4%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.9 Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-30 → 2026-06-26
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,352.44
Current Value
$10,364.79
Period P&L
$1,012.36
Max Drawdown
-19.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
13 / 12
Best Trade
+8.22%
Worst Trade
-1.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$496,110.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,012.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,012.36
Gross Return
+10.82%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,352.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET $359.95 25 $8,998.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 12:30pm ET $361.95 25 $9,048.63 $9,402.30 +$49.87
(+0.6%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET $370.99 25 $9,274.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $371.60 25 $9,289.88 $9,417.43 +$15.13
(+0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET $369.82 25 $9,245.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET $370.25 25 $9,256.25 $9,428.18 +$10.75
(+0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $371.60 25 $9,290.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:55am ET $371.88 25 $9,297.07 $9,435.25 +$7.07
(+0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 3:40pm ET $392.63 24 $9,423.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $411.14 24 $9,867.48 $9,879.61 +$444.36
(+4.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 12:30pm ET $419.00 23 $9,637.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $424.44 23 $9,762.12 $10,004.73 +$125.12
(+1.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $431.80 23 $9,931.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 3:15pm ET $431.33 23 $9,920.70 $9,994.15 $-10.58
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 3:20pm ET $416.06 24 $9,985.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 12:25pm ET $418.70 24 $10,048.68 $10,057.39 +$63.24
(+0.6%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET $426.01 23 $9,798.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 2:05pm ET $427.08 23 $9,822.95 $10,082.11 +$24.72
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:55pm ET $402.42 25 $10,060.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 12:45pm ET $413.61 25 $10,340.13 $10,361.73 +$279.62
(+2.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held
11 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $414.73 24 $9,953.45 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 2:40pm ET $410.01 24 $9,840.24 $10,248.52 $-113.21
(-1.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held
12 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $423.36 24 $10,160.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 1:50pm ET $415.84 24 $9,980.16 $10,068.04 $-180.48
(-1.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
23.3h held
13 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 12:15pm ET $409.31 24 $9,823.44 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 1:10pm ET $408.73 24 $9,809.64 $10,054.24 $-13.80
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
55m held
14 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $404.86 24 $9,716.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $404.43 24 $9,706.32 $10,044.04 $-10.20
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held
15 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 12:40pm ET $420.01 23 $9,660.24 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:55pm ET $421.33 23 $9,690.59 $10,074.39 +$30.35
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
16 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 11:05am ET $415.61 24 $9,974.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:50am ET $419.23 24 $10,061.40 $10,161.27 +$86.88
(+0.9%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held
17 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $419.17 24 $10,060.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 10:40am ET $417.42 24 $10,018.20 $10,119.39 $-41.88
(-0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held
18 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 3:15pm ET $412.77 24 $9,906.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 3:50pm ET $446.69 24 $10,720.56 $10,933.35 +$813.96
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $426.77 25 $10,669.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:15pm ET $419.71 25 $10,492.75 $10,756.81 $-176.54
(-1.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET $403.81 26 $10,499.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 10:40am ET $402.24 26 $10,458.37 $10,716.12 $-40.69
(-0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
50m held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 1:40pm ET $388.57 27 $10,491.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:00pm ET $387.23 27 $10,455.21 $10,679.94 $-36.18
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $399.71 26 $10,392.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $394.99 26 $10,269.79 $10,557.14 $-122.80
(-1.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $379.81 27 $10,254.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $374.60 27 $10,114.20 $10,416.47 $-140.67
(-1.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.7d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $372.67 27 $10,061.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 11:30am ET $372.84 27 $10,066.68 $10,421.20 +$4.73
(+0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $354.48 29 $10,279.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 3:30pm ET $352.53 29 $10,223.37 $10,364.79 $-56.41
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,364.79
Net Profit/Loss: +$364.79
Total Return: +3.65%
Back to Grace Crossover