Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:59:43

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
5.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 11.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.2

30-Day Momentum

14
+0.6%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.4 Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,421.21
Current Value
$10,350.18
Period P&L
$-71.02
Max Drawdown
-19.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
8 / 18
Best Trade
+2.39%
Worst Trade
-1.96%
Avg Trade Return
-0.02%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$522,376.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-71.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-71.02
Gross Return
-0.68%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,421.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $354.48 29 $10,279.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 3:30pm ET $352.53 29 $10,223.37 $10,364.79 $-56.41
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $370.53 27 $10,004.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 11:05am ET $368.94 27 $9,961.38 $10,321.86 $-42.93
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:05am ET $386.87 26 $10,058.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 12:10pm ET $385.70 26 $10,028.32 $10,291.57 $-30.29
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $383.43 26 $9,969.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $383.03 26 $9,958.78 $10,281.04 $-10.53
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:45am ET $383.69 26 $9,975.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 3:20pm ET $391.77 26 $10,186.02 $10,491.12 +$210.08
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 1:35pm ET $396.19 26 $10,300.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 1:50pm ET $395.80 26 $10,290.67 $10,480.85 $-10.27
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $393.17 26 $10,222.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $391.10 26 $10,168.60 $10,427.03 $-53.82
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 1:25pm ET $399.29 26 $10,381.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 2:05pm ET $398.45 26 $10,359.83 $10,405.32 $-21.71
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 2:40pm ET $388.49 26 $10,100.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $380.89 26 $9,903.14 $10,207.72 $-197.60
(-2.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $390.23 26 $10,145.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $389.73 26 $10,132.99 $10,194.72 $-13.00
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET $394.39 25 $9,859.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET $393.33 25 $9,833.25 $10,168.22 $-26.50
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $458.36 22 $10,083.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:25am ET $454.60 22 $10,001.09 $10,085.39 $-82.83
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET $491.46 20 $9,829.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 12:45pm ET $495.21 20 $9,904.16 $10,160.40 +$75.01
(+0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $501.02 20 $10,020.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 12:45pm ET $508.04 20 $10,160.70 $10,300.80 +$140.40
(+1.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 1:00pm ET $502.25 20 $10,045.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $500.45 20 $10,008.90 $10,264.70 $-36.10
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.5h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET $484.18 21 $10,167.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:35am ET $482.12 21 $10,124.52 $10,221.44 $-43.26
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:00pm ET $484.87 21 $10,182.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 1:35pm ET $488.15 21 $10,251.25 $10,290.43 +$68.99
(+0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:45am ET $496.31 20 $9,926.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:35am ET $498.52 20 $9,970.40 $10,334.63 +$44.20
(+0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 11:10am ET $511.79 20 $10,235.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:35pm ET $510.14 20 $10,202.90 $10,301.73 $-32.90
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 1:10pm ET $496.23 20 $9,924.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 2:35pm ET $496.12 20 $9,922.38 $10,299.41 $-2.32
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:00pm ET $500.90 20 $10,017.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $491.95 20 $9,839.00 $10,120.42 $-178.99
(-1.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:35am ET $491.95 20 $9,838.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 12:10pm ET $491.21 20 $9,824.25 $10,105.77 $-14.65
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $495.33 20 $9,906.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 2:45pm ET $507.14 20 $10,142.80 $10,342.07 +$236.30
(+2.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 11:50am ET $494.50 20 $9,890.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 12:30pm ET $495.73 20 $9,914.55 $10,366.62 +$24.55
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:00am ET $495.92 20 $9,918.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET $494.14 20 $9,882.80 $10,330.98 $-35.64
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 12:50pm ET $496.88 20 $9,937.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $497.84 20 $9,956.80 $10,350.18 +$19.20
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,350.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$350.18
Total Return: +3.50%
Back to Grace Crossover