Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:32:25

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 23.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 23.2

30-Day Momentum

48
+6.5%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
8.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 64.0 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,835.18
Current Value
$12,213.52
Period P&L
$378.39
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
11 / 15
Best Trade
+4.20%
Worst Trade
-4.12%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
15.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$617,610.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$378.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$378.39
Gross Return
+3.20%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $11,835.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET $92.68 127 $11,769.73
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:50am ET $92.43 127 $11,739.24 $11,804.65 $-30.48
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 10:25am ET $91.91 128 $11,764.48
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET $91.93 128 $11,767.68 $11,807.85 +$3.20
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
3 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:45am ET $92.04 128 $11,780.48
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:00am ET $91.82 128 $11,753.60 $11,780.97 $-26.88
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
4 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 3:30pm ET $88.06 133 $11,712.25
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $87.66 133 $11,658.78 $11,727.50 $-53.47
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
5 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $85.92 136 $11,684.44
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 1:15pm ET $88.16 136 $11,989.39 $12,032.45 +$304.95
(+2.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held
6 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:35am ET $88.29 136 $12,007.44
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:25am ET $87.89 136 $11,952.36 $11,977.37 $-55.08
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
7 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $87.33 137 $11,964.21
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $87.12 137 $11,935.45 $11,948.61 $-28.76
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
30m held
8 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 3:05pm ET $89.62 133 $11,919.45
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 11:20am ET $90.23 133 $12,000.59 $12,029.75 +$81.14
(+0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 1:30pm ET $88.17 136 $11,991.12
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $88.14 136 $11,987.38 $12,026.01 $-3.74
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
20h held
10 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 11:55am ET $87.85 136 $11,947.60
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 1:45pm ET $87.82 136 $11,943.53 $12,021.94 $-4.07
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
11 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 3:15pm ET $87.64 137 $12,006.00
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $87.46 137 $11,982.02 $11,997.96 $-23.98
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
12 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 3:20pm ET $86.11 139 $11,969.29
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $85.76 139 $11,921.33 $11,950.00 $-47.96
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:30pm ET $81.51 146 $11,900.46
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 11:10am ET $82.29 146 $12,014.34 $12,063.88 +$113.88
(+1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:25pm ET $81.67 147 $12,004.76
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 11:20am ET $82.10 147 $12,067.97 $12,127.09 +$63.21
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $82.24 147 $12,088.55
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $81.56 147 $11,988.59 $12,027.13 $-99.96
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
3h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 12:15pm ET $80.90 148 $11,973.94
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 2:30pm ET $80.68 148 $11,940.64 $11,993.83 $-33.30
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:45am ET $81.49 147 $11,979.03
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $78.14 147 $11,485.85 $11,500.65 $-493.18
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 10:30am ET $77.16 149 $11,496.84
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:30am ET $76.94 149 $11,464.06 $11,467.87 $-32.78
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 2:05pm ET $72.99 157 $11,459.43
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 3:25pm ET $72.89 157 $11,442.95 $11,451.39 $-16.48
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:50pm ET $72.13 158 $11,396.56
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:35pm ET $72.25 158 $11,414.80 $11,469.64 +$18.25
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $72.95 157 $11,453.15
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 12:55pm ET $74.31 157 $11,665.89 $11,682.38 +$212.74
(+1.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET $73.19 159 $11,637.21
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 1:35pm ET $76.26 159 $12,126.13 $12,171.30 +$488.92
(+4.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.2d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:30am ET $75.73 160 $12,116.48
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $75.81 160 $12,129.60 $12,184.42 +$13.12
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:30pm ET $73.84 165 $12,183.60
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $74.22 165 $12,246.30 $12,247.12 +$62.70
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
21h held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 11:25am ET $67.96 180 $12,231.90
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 12:00pm ET $67.67 180 $12,180.60 $12,195.82 $-51.30
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
26 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET $68.80 177 $12,177.60
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $68.90 177 $12,195.30 $12,213.52 +$17.70
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.5h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,213.52
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,213.52
Total Return: +22.14%
Back to Grace Crossover