Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 19:21:47

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.1/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 25.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 25.7

30-Day Momentum

4
-2.1%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,469.69
Current Value
$12,750.40
Period P&L
$1,280.76
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
14 / 8
Best Trade
+4.20%
Worst Trade
-3.19%
Avg Trade Return
+0.50%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$547,883.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,280.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,280.76
Gross Return
+11.17%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.17%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $11,469.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $72.95 157 $11,453.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 12:55pm ET $74.31 157 $11,665.89 $11,682.38 +$212.74
(+1.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET $73.19 159 $11,637.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 1:35pm ET $76.26 159 $12,126.13 $12,171.30 +$488.92
(+4.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:30am ET $75.73 160 $12,116.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $75.81 160 $12,129.60 $12,184.42 +$13.12
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:30pm ET $73.84 165 $12,183.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $74.22 165 $12,246.30 $12,247.12 +$62.70
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
21h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 11:25am ET $67.96 180 $12,231.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 12:00pm ET $67.67 180 $12,180.60 $12,195.82 $-51.30
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET $68.80 177 $12,177.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $68.90 177 $12,195.30 $12,213.52 +$17.70
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:45am ET $70.41 173 $12,180.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $70.96 173 $12,276.94 $12,309.53 +$96.01
(+0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 11:45am ET $72.39 170 $12,305.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $71.71 170 $12,190.70 $12,194.78 $-114.75
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 1:50pm ET $71.61 170 $12,172.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:30pm ET $71.61 170 $12,172.85 $12,194.78 $0.00
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 1:35pm ET $72.96 167 $12,185.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 11:40am ET $73.75 167 $12,315.42 $12,325.04 +$130.26
(+1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 11:40am ET $73.79 167 $12,322.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET $74.01 167 $12,359.67 $12,362.61 +$37.57
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 12:45pm ET $73.98 167 $12,354.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 1:45pm ET $76.85 167 $12,833.30 $12,841.25 +$478.64
(+3.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 2:55pm ET $78.07 164 $12,804.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 1:30pm ET $78.60 164 $12,890.40 $12,927.35 +$86.10
(+0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET $80.69 160 $12,910.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 1:35pm ET $80.08 160 $12,812.80 $12,829.72 $-97.63
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $80.71 158 $12,752.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $81.93 158 $12,945.73 $13,022.48 +$192.76
(+1.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:00pm ET $81.65 159 $12,982.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $80.89 159 $12,862.30 $12,902.43 $-120.05
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:00pm ET $81.03 159 $12,883.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 12:00pm ET $82.09 159 $13,052.31 $13,070.97 +$168.54
(+1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
21h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:00pm ET $79.16 165 $13,061.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $76.64 165 $12,644.78 $12,654.23 $-416.74
(-3.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:15am ET $76.16 166 $12,642.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:15pm ET $75.97 166 $12,611.85 $12,623.80 $-30.43
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3h held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:10pm ET $77.43 163 $12,621.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $77.12 163 $12,570.56 $12,573.27 $-50.53
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $71.99 174 $12,526.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:40pm ET $73.28 174 $12,749.85 $12,796.86 +$223.59
(+1.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 2:50pm ET $71.89 178 $12,795.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $71.62 178 $12,749.07 $12,750.40 $-46.46
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,750.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,750.40
Total Return: +27.50%
Back to Grace Crossover