Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:43:37

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

56
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
29.1/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 56.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 56.0

30-Day Momentum

20
+2.4%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.8 Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-36 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,002.77
Current Value
$18,377.10
Period P&L
$1,374.31
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
14 / 14
Best Trade
+8.57%
Worst Trade
-4.30%
Avg Trade Return
+0.31%
Avg Hold Time
17.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,007,296.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,374.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,374.31
Gross Return
+8.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $17,002.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:55am ET $288.36 58 $16,724.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 3:30pm ET $292.73 58 $16,978.34 $17,256.54 +$253.75
(+1.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET $354.64 48 $17,022.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $346.47 48 $16,630.56 $16,864.62 $-391.92
(-2.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 3:35pm ET $320.13 52 $16,646.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $335.27 52 $17,434.04 $17,652.03 +$787.41
(+4.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 10:30am ET $326.30 54 $17,620.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $328.08 54 $17,716.05 $17,747.78 +$95.75
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:25pm ET $352.11 50 $17,605.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:55am ET $354.07 50 $17,703.50 $17,846.03 +$98.25
(+0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:00pm ET $353.85 50 $17,692.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $360.75 50 $18,037.50 $18,191.28 +$345.25
(+2.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $359.41 50 $17,970.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 2:45pm ET $358.61 50 $17,930.50 $18,151.28 $-40.00
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 12:50pm ET $335.96 54 $18,141.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 2:00pm ET $334.19 54 $18,046.26 $18,055.70 $-95.58
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 11:20am ET $326.00 55 $17,930.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 11:55am ET $325.18 55 $17,884.90 $18,010.60 $-45.10
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 11:00am ET $316.64 56 $17,731.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:20pm ET $320.33 56 $17,938.76 $18,217.52 +$206.92
(+1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $318.50 57 $18,154.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:25am ET $315.47 57 $17,981.79 $18,044.81 $-172.71
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 11:15am ET $325.40 55 $17,897.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:25pm ET $330.87 55 $18,197.85 $18,345.66 +$300.85
(+1.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 11:10am ET $358.95 51 $18,306.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:55am ET $360.23 51 $18,371.73 $18,410.94 +$65.28
(+0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 3:45pm ET $382.33 48 $18,351.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $382.23 48 $18,347.28 $18,406.38 $-4.56
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.7h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 1:55pm ET $383.09 48 $18,388.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 11:20am ET $390.64 48 $18,750.96 $18,769.02 +$362.64
(+2.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 1:55pm ET $385.55 48 $18,506.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $384.61 48 $18,461.04 $18,723.66 $-45.36
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 12:05pm ET $371.75 50 $18,587.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 3:25pm ET $373.74 50 $18,687.25 $18,823.41 +$99.75
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $360.60 52 $18,750.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:45am ET $345.30 52 $17,955.60 $18,028.07 $-795.34
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $351.21 51 $17,911.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:05pm ET $336.67 51 $17,170.17 $17,286.53 $-741.54
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $358.56 48 $17,210.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:05pm ET $368.82 48 $17,703.43 $17,779.08 +$492.55
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $360.02 49 $17,640.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $359.40 49 $17,610.60 $17,748.94 $-30.14
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:25pm ET $329.76 53 $17,477.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $328.02 53 $17,385.06 $17,656.93 $-92.01
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.1h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET $331.72 53 $17,581.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:00am ET $335.93 53 $17,804.29 $17,880.06 +$223.13
(+1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $340.37 52 $17,699.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET $369.54 52 $19,216.08 $19,396.90 +$1,516.84
(+8.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:45pm ET $377.48 51 $19,251.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET $377.83 51 $19,269.33 $19,414.75 +$17.85
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.2h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:55pm ET $376.20 51 $19,186.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:55am ET $360.04 51 $18,362.04 $18,590.34 $-824.41
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $371.11 50 $18,555.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $368.33 50 $18,416.75 $18,451.59 $-138.75
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 10:45am ET $391.88 47 $18,418.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:40am ET $390.30 47 $18,343.87 $18,377.10 $-74.49
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,377.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,377.10
Total Return: +83.77%
Back to Grace Crossover