Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 19:21:46

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.6/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 27.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 27.0

30-Day Momentum

41
+8.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.3 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,889.18
Current Value
$15,427.56
Period P&L
$1,538.33
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
13 / 16
Best Trade
+20.24%
Worst Trade
-4.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.51%
Avg Hold Time
10.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$800,845.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,538.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,538.33
Gross Return
+11.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $13,889.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $27.31 504 $13,761.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET $26.67 504 $13,439.16 $13,453.27 $-322.56
(-2.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $28.07 479 $13,445.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:35pm ET $28.13 479 $13,471.88 $13,479.62 +$26.35
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 1:00pm ET $27.26 494 $13,466.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 2:40pm ET $27.05 494 $13,360.23 $13,373.41 $-106.21
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 3:10pm ET $24.73 540 $13,354.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:20pm ET $24.60 540 $13,284.00 $13,303.21 $-70.20
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 12:05pm ET $21.50 618 $13,287.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $21.74 618 $13,432.29 $13,448.50 +$145.29
(+1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:50pm ET $21.96 612 $13,439.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $21.79 612 $13,335.48 $13,344.46 $-104.04
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
45m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 3:45pm ET $21.25 628 $13,341.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $20.39 628 $12,804.92 $12,807.52 $-536.94
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET $19.94 642 $12,800.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:05pm ET $20.01 642 $12,848.92 $12,856.06 +$48.54
(+0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $19.21 669 $12,851.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 10:00am ET $20.85 669 $13,948.65 $13,953.22 +$1,097.16
(+8.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $23.40 596 $13,943.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 12:10pm ET $24.13 596 $14,378.50 $14,388.30 +$435.08
(+3.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:45am ET $22.72 633 $14,381.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $21.73 633 $13,751.93 $13,758.47 $-629.83
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 11:10am ET $21.03 654 $13,750.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $20.97 654 $13,714.38 $13,722.24 $-36.23
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 2:45pm ET $19.54 702 $13,717.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $18.63 702 $13,074.75 $13,079.91 $-642.33
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $23.04 567 $13,063.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $22.00 567 $12,474.00 $12,490.23 $-589.68
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:10am ET $20.68 603 $12,470.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 12:55pm ET $21.01 603 $12,672.04 $12,692.23 +$202.00
(+1.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:05pm ET $22.04 575 $12,673.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $21.01 575 $12,080.75 $12,099.98 $-592.25
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $22.10 547 $12,088.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:55am ET $21.21 547 $11,601.87 $11,613.15 $-486.83
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 3:20pm ET $19.44 597 $11,608.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $23.38 597 $13,957.86 $13,962.34 +$2,349.19
(+20.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET $19.31 723 $13,957.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 1:35pm ET $19.47 723 $14,076.81 $14,081.63 +$119.29
(+0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.9h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET $18.91 744 $14,069.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 1:10pm ET $19.20 744 $14,284.80 $14,297.39 +$215.76
(+1.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $19.98 715 $14,282.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 2:35pm ET $19.85 715 $14,196.32 $14,211.59 $-85.80
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:25pm ET $20.72 685 $14,193.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET $21.16 685 $14,494.60 $14,512.99 +$301.40
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $18.44 786 $14,497.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $18.26 786 $14,353.07 $14,368.29 $-144.70
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:40am ET $17.86 804 $14,359.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET $19.43 804 $15,624.86 $15,633.71 +$1,265.42
(+8.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $22.60 691 $15,616.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $21.67 691 $14,977.42 $14,994.53 $-639.18
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:50pm ET $21.29 704 $14,988.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 12:50pm ET $21.58 704 $15,195.77 $15,202.14 +$207.61
(+1.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
23h held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $21.32 713 $15,201.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $21.77 713 $15,525.57 $15,526.55 +$324.41
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $24.58 631 $15,513.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 3:05pm ET $24.51 631 $15,468.96 $15,482.38 $-44.17
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:45pm ET $23.99 645 $15,473.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $23.91 645 $15,418.73 $15,427.56 $-54.82
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,427.56
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,427.56
Total Return: +54.28%
Back to Grace Crossover