RIVN Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 31 trades in period
-6.49%
Last 3 Months Return
$20,901.90
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$22,351.88
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.4/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
36.7/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 36.1
30-Day Momentum
9
-6.4%
30d Return
18%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$22,351.88
Current Value
$20,901.90
Period P&L
$-1,449.90
Max Drawdown
-33.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
12 /
19
Best Trade
+9.48%
Worst Trade
-10.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
11.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,381,354.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,449.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,449.90
Gross Return
-6.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $22,351.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.64 | 1,526 | $22,340.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $14.49 | 1,526 | $22,119.37 | $22,130.53 |
$-221.27 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:25pm ET | $15.57 | 1,420 | $22,116.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $16.83 | 1,420 | $23,905.70 | $23,919.73 |
+$1,789.20 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $17.42 | 1,372 | $23,907.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 1:10pm ET | $17.56 | 1,372 | $24,092.32 | $24,104.95 |
+$185.22 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $19.75 | 1,220 | $24,101.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.76 | 1,220 | $21,668.18 | $21,672.03 |
$-2,432.92 (-10.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.25 | 1,334 | $21,670.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $17.78 | 1,334 | $23,725.19 | $23,726.39 |
+$2,054.36 (+9.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $18.49 | 1,283 | $23,716.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $17.72 | 1,283 | $22,728.35 | $22,738.48 |
$-987.91 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.22 | 1,320 | $22,728.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:35am ET | $17.37 | 1,320 | $22,928.40 | $22,937.93 |
+$199.45 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $16.77 | 1,367 | $22,931.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $16.75 | 1,367 | $22,890.42 | $22,896.92 |
$-41.01 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.39 | 1,317 | $22,896.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $17.39 | 1,317 | $22,902.76 | $22,903.64 |
+$6.72 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $16.71 | 1,370 | $22,892.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $16.04 | 1,370 | $21,974.66 | $21,985.60 |
$-918.04 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $16.25 | 1,352 | $21,974.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 2:40pm ET | $16.38 | 1,352 | $22,139.00 | $22,150.54 |
+$164.94 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $15.61 | 1,418 | $22,142.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 2:40pm ET | $15.48 | 1,418 | $21,957.73 | $21,966.20 |
$-184.34 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.75 | 1,394 | $21,955.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.53 | 1,394 | $21,655.79 | $21,666.49 |
$-299.71 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $15.49 | 1,398 | $21,655.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $15.45 | 1,398 | $21,599.10 | $21,610.57 |
$-55.92 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.69 | 1,377 | $21,598.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $16.02 | 1,377 | $22,066.42 | $22,078.75 |
+$468.18 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.20 | 1,362 | $22,071.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 11:45am ET | $16.22 | 1,362 | $22,084.83 | $22,092.37 |
+$13.62 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $15.98 | 1,382 | $22,091.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $15.93 | 1,382 | $22,008.35 | $22,009.45 |
$-82.92 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $15.62 | 1,409 | $22,008.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $15.57 | 1,409 | $21,945.17 | $21,946.04 |
$-63.41 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $14.63 | 1,500 | $21,945.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.69 | 1,500 | $22,027.50 | $22,028.54 |
+$82.50 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:55pm ET | $15.38 | 1,432 | $22,024.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.59 | 1,432 | $22,317.72 | $22,322.10 |
+$293.56 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $16.71 | 1,335 | $22,307.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 3:20pm ET | $16.78 | 1,335 | $22,396.23 | $22,410.48 |
+$88.38 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 1:35pm ET | $16.73 | 1,339 | $22,401.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $16.70 | 1,339 | $22,356.35 | $22,365.36 |
$-45.12 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 12:00pm ET | $15.66 | 1,428 | $22,362.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.56 | 1,428 | $22,212.54 | $22,215.42 |
$-149.94 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $15.55 | 1,429 | $22,213.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $15.84 | 1,429 | $22,635.36 | $22,636.98 |
+$421.56 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.69 | 1,442 | $22,632.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 1:55pm ET | $15.65 | 1,442 | $22,560.09 | $22,564.88 |
$-72.10 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $16.25 | 1,388 | $22,561.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $16.11 | 1,388 | $22,367.62 | $22,370.56 |
$-194.32 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.37 | 1,366 | $22,364.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 12:15pm ET | $16.26 | 1,366 | $22,211.30 | $22,217.30 |
$-153.26 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 12:25pm ET | $16.01 | 1,387 | $22,212.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $15.37 | 1,387 | $21,315.69 | $21,320.19 |
$-897.11 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $15.38 | 1,386 | $21,309.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $15.30 | 1,386 | $21,198.87 | $21,209.31 |
$-110.88 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 12:55pm ET | $15.07 | 1,407 | $21,203.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $14.98 | 1,407 | $21,069.83 | $21,075.65 |
$-133.66 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 2:05pm ET | $15.15 | 1,390 | $21,065.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.03 | 1,390 | $20,891.70 | $20,901.90 |
$-173.75 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,901.90
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,901.90
Total Return:
+109.02%