SMCI Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 32 trades in period
+24.22%
Last 3 Months Return
$17,374.86
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$13,987.70
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.0/35
Total Return
15.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
28.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 27.8
30-Day Momentum
70
+14.2%
30d Return
27%
Win Rate
11
Trades
2.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 77.7
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+42 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,987.70
Current Value
$17,374.86
Period P&L
$3,387.14
Max Drawdown
-43.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
12 /
20
Best Trade
+16.15%
Worst Trade
-4.75%
Avg Trade Return
+0.77%
Avg Hold Time
11.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$942,689.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,387.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,387.14
Gross Return
+24.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $13,987.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:10am ET | $32.39 | 431 | $13,958.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $31.96 | 431 | $13,774.76 | $13,804.32 |
$-183.39 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.96 | 445 | $13,777.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.60 | 445 | $13,172.00 | $13,199.12 |
$-605.20 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $28.17 | 468 | $13,184.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $28.13 | 468 | $13,164.70 | $13,179.18 |
$-19.94 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $26.08 | 505 | $13,172.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $26.17 | 505 | $13,215.85 | $13,222.11 |
+$42.93 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $28.72 | 460 | $13,211.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $28.42 | 460 | $13,075.50 | $13,086.41 |
$-135.70 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $27.61 | 473 | $13,059.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $27.40 | 473 | $12,960.20 | $12,987.08 |
$-99.33 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:40pm ET | $26.74 | 485 | $12,966.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.60 | 485 | $12,903.42 | $12,923.98 |
$-63.10 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 11:55am ET | $24.32 | 531 | $12,915.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $24.64 | 531 | $13,081.19 | $13,089.28 |
+$165.30 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $25.38 | 515 | $13,070.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.48 | 515 | $15,182.20 | $15,200.78 |
+$2,111.50 (+16.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:05pm ET | $31.52 | 482 | $15,195.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $30.17 | 482 | $14,541.94 | $14,547.67 |
$-653.11 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $29.24 | 497 | $14,529.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 2:20pm ET | $28.86 | 497 | $14,343.42 | $14,361.30 |
$-186.38 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $28.42 | 505 | $14,352.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.98 | 505 | $14,129.90 | $14,139.10 |
$-222.20 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $27.33 | 517 | $14,132.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $27.42 | 517 | $14,176.14 | $14,183.05 |
+$43.95 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $28.37 | 499 | $14,156.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $28.41 | 499 | $14,174.10 | $14,200.47 |
+$17.42 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $31.05 | 457 | $14,187.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.57 | 457 | $13,513.49 | $13,526.39 |
$-674.08 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $30.22 | 447 | $13,506.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $32.67 | 447 | $14,603.49 | $14,623.19 |
+$1,096.80 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $32.10 | 455 | $14,605.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.70 | 455 | $15,788.50 | $15,806.19 |
+$1,183.00 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $40.25 | 392 | $15,778.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $39.53 | 392 | $15,493.80 | $15,521.99 |
$-284.20 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $38.22 | 406 | $15,517.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.27 | 406 | $15,131.62 | $15,136.29 |
$-385.70 (-2.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $36.26 | 417 | $15,122.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:50pm ET | $36.45 | 417 | $15,199.65 | $15,213.44 |
+$77.15 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $35.38 | 430 | $15,211.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $35.38 | 430 | $15,213.40 | $15,215.59 |
+$2.15 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 1:55pm ET | $37.92 | 401 | $15,207.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 2:20pm ET | $37.72 | 401 | $15,125.76 | $15,133.43 |
$-82.16 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $38.47 | 393 | $15,120.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $38.22 | 393 | $15,022.42 | $15,035.18 |
$-98.25 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:00am ET | $37.43 | 401 | $15,009.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 12:00pm ET | $37.24 | 401 | $14,934.64 | $14,960.39 |
$-74.79 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $36.62 | 408 | $14,938.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $36.15 | 408 | $14,751.24 | $14,772.71 |
$-187.68 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $36.87 | 400 | $14,748.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $39.87 | 400 | $15,946.00 | $15,970.67 |
+$1,197.96 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $40.93 | 390 | $15,962.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 3:35pm ET | $40.48 | 390 | $15,787.20 | $15,795.17 |
$-175.50 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $38.31 | 412 | $15,783.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 12:30pm ET | $39.26 | 412 | $16,175.12 | $16,186.57 |
+$391.40 (+2.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $37.88 | 427 | $16,174.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $37.76 | 427 | $16,123.52 | $16,135.76 |
$-50.81 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.56 | 441 | $16,122.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $39.71 | 441 | $17,509.91 | $17,522.71 |
+$1,386.95 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:15pm ET | $38.81 | 451 | $17,501.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $38.78 | 451 | $17,488.97 | $17,510.62 |
$-12.09 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $41.69 | 419 | $17,469.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $41.37 | 419 | $17,334.03 | $17,374.86 |
$-135.76 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,374.86
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,374.86
Total Return:
+73.75%