Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:33:12

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

25
+2.7%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 30.8 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,653.12
Current Value
$9,379.30
Period P&L
$726.19
Max Drawdown
-14.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
8 / 21
Best Trade
+8.06%
Worst Trade
-2.80%
Avg Trade Return
+0.30%
Avg Hold Time
14.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$497,338.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$726.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$726.19
Gross Return
+8.39%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.39%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $8,653.12 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET $473.77 18 $8,527.95
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $467.35 18 $8,412.30 $8,537.46 $-115.65
(-1.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:40pm ET $468.69 18 $8,436.42
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 1:00pm ET $467.60 18 $8,416.80 $8,517.84 $-19.62
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
3 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $471.02 18 $8,478.27
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET $470.23 18 $8,464.18 $8,503.75 $-14.09
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
4 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:25am ET $465.79 18 $8,384.22
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 12:40pm ET $465.69 18 $8,382.42 $8,501.95 $-1.80
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
5 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $472.83 17 $8,038.03
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 1:50pm ET $472.43 17 $8,031.31 $8,495.23 $-6.72
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
45m held
6 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $464.91 18 $8,368.38
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:05am ET $462.07 18 $8,317.24 $8,444.09 $-51.14
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
7 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 2:35pm ET $460.96 18 $8,297.28
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 3:10pm ET $459.58 18 $8,272.44 $8,419.25 $-24.84
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
8 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 3:20pm ET $452.02 18 $8,136.36
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:05am ET $439.38 18 $7,908.84 $8,191.73 $-227.52
(-2.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held
9 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 1:25pm ET $449.82 18 $8,096.67
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 3:05pm ET $450.05 18 $8,100.99 $8,196.05 +$4.32
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
10 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:45am ET $448.40 18 $8,071.20
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 12:30pm ET $448.50 18 $8,073.00 $8,197.85 +$1.80
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
11 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 12:40pm ET $446.98 18 $8,045.73
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $446.67 18 $8,040.06 $8,192.18 $-5.67
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
12 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:50pm ET $450.16 18 $8,102.88
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 1:30pm ET $486.44 18 $8,755.92 $8,845.22 +$653.04
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 1:50pm ET $492.61 17 $8,374.29
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $489.20 17 $8,316.40 $8,787.34 $-57.88
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:20pm ET $472.74 18 $8,509.32
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:10pm ET $473.02 18 $8,514.45 $8,792.47 +$5.13
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:45am ET $473.68 18 $8,526.24
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 11:35am ET $473.56 18 $8,524.08 $8,790.31 $-2.16
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $483.33 18 $8,699.94
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 1:15pm ET $482.98 18 $8,693.73 $8,784.10 $-6.21
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
45m held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 1:40pm ET $474.50 18 $8,541.00
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET $472.76 18 $8,509.68 $8,752.78 $-31.32
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:30pm ET $472.60 18 $8,506.80
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 1:55pm ET $474.90 18 $8,548.20 $8,794.18 +$41.40
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.4h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 10:40am ET $463.58 18 $8,344.35
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:40am ET $461.91 18 $8,314.38 $8,764.21 $-29.97
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 11:40am ET $463.50 18 $8,342.98
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 1:45pm ET $462.83 18 $8,330.94 $8,752.17 $-12.04
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 2:35pm ET $466.11 18 $8,390.07
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 1:25pm ET $487.12 18 $8,768.16 $9,130.26 +$378.09
(+4.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:05pm ET $504.20 18 $9,075.60
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 1:20pm ET $503.80 18 $9,068.49 $9,123.15 $-7.11
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 1:35pm ET $503.98 18 $9,071.55
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 2:25pm ET $503.14 18 $9,056.52 $9,108.12 $-15.03
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:40am ET $504.75 18 $9,085.47
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:55pm ET $524.32 18 $9,437.67 $9,460.32 +$352.20
(+3.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $515.06 18 $9,271.08
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $510.08 18 $9,181.35 $9,370.59 $-89.73
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held
26 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $525.89 17 $8,940.13
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $531.42 17 $9,034.15 $9,464.61 +$94.02
(+1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
27 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $535.79 17 $9,108.51
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $533.15 17 $9,063.55 $9,419.65 $-44.96
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held
28 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 12:25pm ET $520.42 18 $9,367.56
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:20pm ET $520.28 18 $9,365.13 $9,417.22 $-2.43
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held
29 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $573.00 16 $9,168.00
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 12:45pm ET $570.63 16 $9,130.08 $9,379.30 $-37.92
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,379.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-620.70
Total Return: -6.21%
Back to Grace Crossover