Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:45:53

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

25
+4.7%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 30.7 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,394.24
Current Value
$7,189.83
Period P&L
$-1,204.40
Max Drawdown
-36.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
8 / 20
Best Trade
+8.03%
Worst Trade
-5.00%
Avg Trade Return
-0.57%
Avg Hold Time
16.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$409,705.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,204.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,204.40
Gross Return
-14.35%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.35%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $8,394.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $76.39 111 $8,478.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $74.88 111 $8,311.52 $8,324.16 $-167.21
(-2.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET $74.11 112 $8,300.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 1:50pm ET $73.63 112 $8,246.00 $8,269.85 $-54.31
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET $78.61 105 $8,254.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET $75.40 105 $7,917.00 $7,932.80 $-337.05
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:50pm ET $76.63 103 $7,892.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $76.39 103 $7,868.17 $7,908.08 $-24.72
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET $76.40 103 $7,869.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 11:45am ET $75.69 103 $7,796.58 $7,835.46 $-72.62
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $74.97 104 $7,796.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 2:50pm ET $75.26 104 $7,827.04 $7,865.62 +$30.16
(+0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $74.12 106 $7,856.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $72.97 106 $7,734.82 $7,743.72 $-121.90
(-1.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 11:55am ET $68.43 113 $7,732.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $68.44 113 $7,734.28 $7,745.43 +$1.71
(+0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $70.59 109 $7,694.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $67.06 109 $7,309.54 $7,360.66 $-384.77
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET $66.28 111 $7,357.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $65.35 111 $7,253.86 $7,257.44 $-103.22
(-1.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $62.78 115 $7,220.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 2:35pm ET $62.28 115 $7,162.21 $7,199.38 $-58.06
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:45am ET $61.95 116 $7,186.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $62.60 116 $7,261.60 $7,274.78 +$75.40
(+1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $74.04 98 $7,256.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $71.07 98 $6,964.86 $6,983.23 $-291.55
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $73.61 94 $6,919.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET $73.36 94 $6,895.85 $6,959.74 $-23.49
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 3:00pm ET $74.10 93 $6,890.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $73.92 93 $6,874.56 $6,943.46 $-16.28
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:35am ET $75.41 92 $6,937.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 11:55am ET $76.68 92 $7,054.10 $7,059.85 +$116.39
(+1.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 2:10pm ET $76.36 92 $7,025.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $76.25 92 $7,014.54 $7,049.27 $-10.58
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 12:50pm ET $73.12 96 $7,019.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:55pm ET $72.39 96 $6,949.67 $6,979.42 $-69.85
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:50am ET $70.55 98 $6,913.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 2:00pm ET $71.07 98 $6,964.85 $7,030.36 +$50.94
(+0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 2:10pm ET $69.56 101 $7,025.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:05pm ET $70.05 101 $7,075.05 $7,080.36 +$50.00
(+0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.9h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:25pm ET $72.63 97 $7,044.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $72.56 97 $7,038.32 $7,074.05 $-6.31
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:50pm ET $71.32 99 $7,060.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 1:30pm ET $71.13 99 $7,041.38 $7,054.75 $-19.30
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $69.11 102 $7,048.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $68.90 102 $7,027.73 $7,033.77 $-20.98
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:10pm ET $71.55 98 $7,011.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $71.45 98 $7,002.09 $7,023.96 $-9.81
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $71.02 98 $6,959.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $67.60 98 $6,624.80 $6,688.80 $-335.16
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:15pm ET $68.09 98 $6,672.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 1:00pm ET $69.36 98 $6,797.37 $6,813.35 +$124.55
(+1.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:05pm ET $71.33 95 $6,776.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:35am ET $77.07 95 $7,321.18 $7,357.70 +$544.35
(+8.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 1:50pm ET $78.50 93 $7,300.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $76.70 93 $7,133.10 $7,189.83 $-167.87
(-2.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,189.83
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,810.17
Total Return: -28.10%
Back to Grace Crossover