XLE Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 31 trades in period
-4.04%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,408.49
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$9,804.78
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
4.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.2
30-Day Momentum
19
-0.4%
30d Return
70%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.3
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,804.78
Current Value
$9,408.49
Period P&L
$-396.26
Max Drawdown
-13.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.26
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
12 /
19
Best Trade
+1.35%
Worst Trade
-2.28%
Avg Trade Return
-0.21%
Avg Hold Time
11.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$590,982.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-396.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-396.26
Gross Return
-4.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.04%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,804.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 3:45pm ET | $54.49 | 184 | $10,027.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.51 | 184 | $9,845.84 | $9,878.35 |
$-181.24 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $53.94 | 183 | $9,871.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $54.01 | 183 | $9,882.92 | $9,889.33 |
+$10.98 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $53.92 | 183 | $9,866.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $53.92 | 183 | $9,866.45 | $9,889.33 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 11:50am ET | $53.03 | 186 | $9,863.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $53.12 | 186 | $9,880.32 | $9,906.07 |
+$16.74 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $53.26 | 185 | $9,853.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 2:40pm ET | $53.22 | 185 | $9,845.89 | $9,898.86 |
$-7.21 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $55.43 | 178 | $9,866.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $55.35 | 178 | $9,853.19 | $9,885.51 |
$-13.35 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $55.12 | 179 | $9,866.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $54.81 | 179 | $9,810.99 | $9,830.02 |
$-55.49 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.15 | 172 | $9,829.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 10:35am ET | $56.72 | 172 | $9,755.17 | $9,755.39 |
$-74.63 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.94 | 168 | $9,733.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $57.30 | 168 | $9,626.40 | $9,647.87 |
$-107.52 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $58.27 | 165 | $9,614.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 1:00pm ET | $58.19 | 165 | $9,600.53 | $9,633.85 |
$-14.02 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 2:30pm ET | $59.22 | 162 | $9,594.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $59.90 | 162 | $9,703.78 | $9,743.18 |
+$109.33 (+1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $59.77 | 163 | $9,742.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:35pm ET | $59.63 | 163 | $9,720.50 | $9,721.17 |
$-22.01 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $58.69 | 165 | $9,683.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $57.59 | 165 | $9,502.37 | $9,540.51 |
$-180.66 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $58.86 | 162 | $9,535.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:55am ET | $58.77 | 162 | $9,520.74 | $9,525.93 |
$-14.58 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $58.40 | 163 | $9,519.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $58.26 | 163 | $9,495.57 | $9,502.29 |
$-23.64 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 2:05pm ET | $57.59 | 164 | $9,444.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $57.53 | 164 | $9,434.92 | $9,492.45 |
$-9.84 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $57.74 | 164 | $9,468.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $57.79 | 164 | $9,478.38 | $9,502.29 |
+$9.84 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 3:20pm ET | $60.89 | 156 | $9,498.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.65 | 156 | $9,462.18 | $9,465.63 |
$-36.66 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $60.85 | 155 | $9,430.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 12:40pm ET | $60.84 | 155 | $9,430.20 | $9,464.85 |
$-0.78 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 2:50pm ET | $61.99 | 152 | $9,421.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:20pm ET | $61.93 | 152 | $9,413.36 | $9,456.49 |
$-8.36 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $64.36 | 146 | $9,396.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 12:20pm ET | $64.28 | 146 | $9,384.15 | $9,444.08 |
$-12.41 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 12:20pm ET | $63.78 | 148 | $9,438.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $62.32 | 148 | $9,223.36 | $9,228.74 |
$-215.34 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $62.53 | 147 | $9,191.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $62.70 | 147 | $9,217.49 | $9,255.05 |
+$26.31 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $62.58 | 147 | $9,199.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $62.39 | 147 | $9,171.33 | $9,226.39 |
$-28.66 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:10pm ET | $63.40 | 145 | $9,193.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 12:00pm ET | $64.18 | 145 | $9,306.82 | $9,339.49 |
+$113.10 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $65.23 | 143 | $9,327.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 12:15pm ET | $64.15 | 143 | $9,174.16 | $9,185.76 |
$-153.73 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:05pm ET | $64.67 | 142 | $9,183.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $65.21 | 142 | $9,259.11 | $9,261.73 |
+$75.97 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $65.00 | 142 | $9,230.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $65.04 | 142 | $9,235.68 | $9,267.41 |
+$5.68 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $64.98 | 142 | $9,227.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $65.86 | 142 | $9,351.41 | $9,391.66 |
+$124.25 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $64.04 | 146 | $9,349.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $64.14 | 146 | $9,364.44 | $9,406.99 |
+$15.33 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $62.31 | 150 | $9,346.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 12:50pm ET | $62.32 | 150 | $9,348.00 | $9,408.49 |
+$1.50 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,408.49
Net Profit/Loss:
$-591.51
Total Return:
-5.92%