Compendium › Grace Crossover › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Grace Crossover's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 30 trades in period

-3.14%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,059.59
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$10,385.92
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-24 07:24:06

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
17.3
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.51%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.34%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.65
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.2/35
Total Return
1.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 6.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 6.2

30-Day Momentum

14
+0.6%
30d Return
18%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.9 Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,385.92
Current Value
$10,059.59
Period P&L
$-326.30
Max Drawdown
-13.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
11 / 19
Best Trade
+2.47%
Worst Trade
-5.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
23.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$592,438.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-326.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$-326.30
Gross Return
-3.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,385.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $59.95 173 $10,371.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET $60.74 173 $10,508.02 $10,522.56 +$136.67
(+1.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $62.66 167 $10,464.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET $62.67 167 $10,465.06 $10,523.40 +$0.84
(+0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET $62.49 168 $10,498.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $60.31 168 $10,132.08 $10,157.16 $-366.24
(-3.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $59.19 171 $10,120.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET $59.03 171 $10,094.80 $10,131.32 $-25.84
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $60.12 168 $10,100.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $56.80 168 $9,542.40 $9,573.58 $-557.74
(-5.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:50am ET $56.93 168 $9,564.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $56.79 168 $9,541.56 $9,550.90 $-22.68
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $57.13 167 $9,541.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $56.35 167 $9,411.28 $9,420.64 $-130.26
(-1.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET $55.79 168 $9,372.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:55am ET $55.67 168 $9,353.40 $9,401.32 $-19.32
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $54.29 173 $9,393.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $55.40 173 $9,583.34 $9,591.62 +$190.30
(+2.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:25pm ET $56.43 169 $9,536.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET $56.63 169 $9,571.31 $9,626.26 +$34.64
(+0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 2:10pm ET $56.85 169 $9,608.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:35pm ET $56.83 169 $9,603.43 $9,621.19 $-5.07
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET $57.74 166 $9,585.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:20pm ET $58.76 166 $9,754.99 $9,790.51 +$169.32
(+1.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:45pm ET $59.51 164 $9,760.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $59.22 164 $9,712.08 $9,742.23 $-48.28
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held
14 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:30am ET $59.38 164 $9,738.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 3:50pm ET $59.53 164 $9,763.74 $9,767.65 +$25.42
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held
15 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:05pm ET $55.71 175 $9,748.38 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $55.88 175 $9,778.13 $9,797.40 +$29.75
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held
16 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $56.49 173 $9,771.91 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $57.06 173 $9,870.52 $9,896.01 +$98.61
(+1.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
6.2h held
17 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $57.75 171 $9,875.25 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:55am ET $57.60 171 $9,849.60 $9,870.36 $-25.65
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held
18 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:05am ET $59.44 166 $9,866.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:00pm ET $60.35 166 $10,018.93 $10,023.08 +$152.72
(+1.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.9h held
19 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 3:10pm ET $60.04 166 $9,966.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:55am ET $59.91 166 $9,945.06 $10,001.50 $-21.58
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held
20 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 12:15pm ET $59.27 168 $9,957.26 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $58.84 168 $9,885.12 $9,929.36 $-72.14
(-0.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held
21 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:25am ET $57.21 173 $9,897.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:15am ET $56.91 173 $9,845.45 $9,877.48 $-51.88
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held
22 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 1:15pm ET $56.40 175 $9,870.87 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 2:45pm ET $56.34 175 $9,859.50 $9,866.11 $-11.37
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:30pm ET $57.38 171 $9,811.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $57.21 171 $9,782.91 $9,837.89 $-28.22
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
25m held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $58.18 169 $9,832.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 1:35pm ET $59.02 169 $9,974.40 $9,979.87 +$141.98
(+1.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.1h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 2:25pm ET $58.89 169 $9,952.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $58.31 169 $9,855.23 $9,882.69 $-97.18
(-1.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4d held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $57.30 172 $9,855.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $58.72 172 $10,098.98 $10,126.07 +$243.38
(+2.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 10:00am ET $57.83 175 $10,120.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $57.78 175 $10,112.15 $10,117.97 $-8.10
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:55pm ET $55.88 181 $10,113.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 1:50pm ET $55.72 181 $10,084.42 $10,089.01 $-28.96
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
55m held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 2:20pm ET $55.28 182 $10,061.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $55.19 182 $10,043.67 $10,070.81 $-18.20
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
50m held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 1:20pm ET $53.62 187 $10,026.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 1:35pm ET $53.56 187 $10,014.79 $10,059.59 $-11.22
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
15m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,059.59
Net Profit/Loss: +$59.59
Total Return: +0.60%
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