Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:15:43

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 36.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 36.7

30-Day Momentum

43
+4.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.0 Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,652.82
Current Value
$14,581.91
Period P&L
$-70.88
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
9 / 20
Best Trade
+3.70%
Worst Trade
-2.34%
Avg Trade Return
-0.01%
Avg Hold Time
17.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$816,935.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-70.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$-70.88
Gross Return
-0.48%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,652.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 10:45am ET $185.01 79 $14,616.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 11:15am ET $182.04 79 $14,381.16 $14,417.76 $-235.03
(-1.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:45am ET $182.70 78 $14,250.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:00pm ET $182.06 78 $14,200.68 $14,367.84 $-49.92
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 3:20pm ET $186.59 77 $14,367.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:45pm ET $186.06 77 $14,326.62 $14,327.03 $-40.81
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $179.14 79 $14,152.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET $178.74 79 $14,120.85 $14,295.82 $-31.21
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:30am ET $185.19 77 $14,259.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 11:40am ET $184.67 77 $14,219.59 $14,255.78 $-40.04
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $183.04 77 $14,094.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 3:00pm ET $184.03 77 $14,170.31 $14,332.01 +$76.23
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:25pm ET $177.83 80 $14,226.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $177.12 80 $14,169.22 $14,274.83 $-57.18
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
30m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $177.46 80 $14,196.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 2:35pm ET $176.96 80 $14,156.80 $14,234.83 $-40.00
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $180.69 78 $14,093.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $178.72 78 $13,940.16 $14,081.17 $-153.66
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 12:25pm ET $179.13 78 $13,972.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $178.23 78 $13,901.95 $14,010.59 $-70.58
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET $177.54 78 $13,848.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET $175.49 78 $13,688.22 $13,850.69 $-159.90
(-1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 11:20am ET $170.84 81 $13,838.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 1:55pm ET $170.97 81 $13,848.65 $13,861.30 +$10.61
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $172.59 80 $13,807.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 2:55pm ET $175.05 80 $14,004.00 $14,058.26 +$196.96
(+1.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $182.20 77 $14,029.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 3:35pm ET $187.13 77 $14,409.01 $14,437.86 +$379.60
(+2.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.3d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $187.76 76 $14,269.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 1:00pm ET $187.17 76 $14,224.92 $14,393.02 $-44.84
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 3:00pm ET $187.39 76 $14,241.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET $186.60 76 $14,181.60 $14,332.98 $-60.04
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:35am ET $189.50 75 $14,212.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 11:55am ET $190.58 75 $14,293.50 $14,413.98 +$81.00
(+0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 2:05pm ET $189.77 75 $14,232.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 3:20pm ET $185.32 75 $13,899.00 $14,080.23 $-333.75
(-2.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:00pm ET $183.39 76 $13,937.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $181.16 76 $13,768.16 $13,910.75 $-169.48
(-1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $181.91 76 $13,825.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 11:10am ET $181.26 76 $13,775.76 $13,861.35 $-49.40
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 1:10pm ET $182.20 76 $13,847.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $187.48 76 $14,248.48 $14,262.63 +$401.28
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:35pm ET $185.81 76 $14,121.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $185.62 76 $14,107.12 $14,248.19 $-14.44
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
5m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:25pm ET $183.67 77 $14,142.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $183.10 77 $14,098.70 $14,204.30 $-43.89
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $187.05 75 $14,028.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:05am ET $186.78 75 $14,008.50 $14,184.05 $-20.25
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 1:05pm ET $188.39 75 $14,129.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET $188.20 75 $14,115.00 $14,169.80 $-14.25
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:50pm ET $188.07 75 $14,104.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 11:50am ET $185.99 75 $13,949.62 $14,014.55 $-155.25
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
21h held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 11:40am ET $184.88 75 $13,866.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:15pm ET $185.13 75 $13,884.75 $14,033.30 +$18.75
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $184.95 75 $13,870.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET $185.40 75 $13,905.00 $14,067.42 +$34.12
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 11:25am ET $188.12 74 $13,920.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 11:55am ET $195.07 74 $14,435.18 $14,581.91 +$514.49
(+3.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,581.91
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,581.91
Total Return: +45.82%
Back to Grace Crossover